Summary: The PWBM Economic Outlook projects that the pace of economic growth this year remains closely tied to the spread of the virus, evolution of variants, and distribution of vaccines, as reflected in our estimates for the year 2021 and part of 2022. Over time, we project that economic growth will stabilize to its pre-pandemic level with demographic changes playing a larger role.

Table 1. Economic Outlook

Year-over-year percent change unless otherwise indicated

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2040 2050
Gross Domestic Product
Real 6.1% 3.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6%
Nominal 8.4% 5.2% 3.2% 3.6% 3.8% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8%
Contribution from
Capital Services 0.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.4% 1.7%
Labor 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Total Factor Productivity 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 99% 107% 108% 109% 110% 117% 150% 196%
Indices
GDP Price Index 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Employment Cost Index 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4%