Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated December 23, 2025)

Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated December 23, 2025)

International Tariffs Tax Policy

Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated December 23, 2025)

PWBM · · 24 min read
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated December 23, 2025)

The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through September 2025.


Key Points

  • New tariffs have raised $124.5 billion in revenue between January 2025 and September 2025 before accounting for income and payroll tax offsets.

  • The average effective tariff rate increased to 10.65 percent in September, up from 2.2 percent in January.

  • Among major trading partners, China faces the highest tariffs, with effective rates reaching 37.1 percent in September.

  • Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 40 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 18.2 percent.

  • The share of imports from Canada and Mexico claiming an exemption under USMCA surged to nearly 87.3 percent in September.


For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator. For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker.
How Did Changes in Import Behavior Affect Customs Revenue?

We estimate that tariff rate changes have raised $124.5 billion dollars in customs revenue between January 2025 and September 2025.1 If importers had not accelerated purchases or changed their purchasing patterns, tariff revenue would have further increased by $31.5 billion dollars over this period.

Figure 1: Decomposition of Tariff Revenue Changes

Notes: The mechanical revenue effect (in red) is the increase in tariff revenue that would have been collected if importers had not accelerated purchases or changed their purchasing patterns. The behavioral revenue effect (in blue) is the decrease in tariff revenue that was not collected due to changes in import behavior. The overall increase in tariff revenue (in black) is the sum of the mechanical and behavioral revenue effects.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.

How Have Effective Tariff Rates Changed Over Time?

The Trump administration’s tariff policies have resulted in substantial increases in effective tariff rates. In January, the effective tariff rate was 2.2 percent. By September, the effective tariff rate climbed to 10.65 percent, an increase of over 383 percent. The effective tariff rate varies significantly across trading partners and product categories as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Effective Tariff Rates on Key Trading Partners and Product Categories

by Major Trading Partner

by Selected Product Category

Note: The effective tariff rate is computed as the value of customs duties as a percentage of the value of imports.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.

Among major trading partners, China faces the highest effective rate of 37.1 percent in September 2025. By major product category, Steel and aluminum products face the highest effective tariff rates at 40 percent, reflecting both existing Section 232 tariffs and recent rate increases on June 4 from 25 percent to 50 percent.

How Have North American Partners Responded to Tariff Hikes?

Tariff hikes in 2025 have driven a surge in the share of Canadian and Mexican imports that claim exemption from tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Figure 3 shows that the share of imports from Canada and Mexico claiming an exemption under USMCA remained stable through late 2024. This share has sharply increased for both countries in recent months, reaching 87.3 percent in aggregate by September 2025. This surge reflects importers aggressively leveraging USMCA rules of origin to secure duty-free status and avoid higher tariff rates.

Figure 3: Monthly Share of Import Value Claiming Tariff Exemption Under USMCA

Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.



For more detailed analysis of import behavior and tariff avoidance effects, see our comprehensive report on Import Surges and Tariff Avoidance. Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb

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  1. This estimate does not account for indirect effects on other revenue sources such as the income and payroll taxes.  ↩