Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated February 3, 2026)

Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated February 3, 2026)

International Tariffs Tax Policy

Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated February 3, 2026)

PWBM · · 27 min read
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated February 3, 2026)

The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through November 2025.


Key Points

  • The average effective tariff rate stands at 10.5 percent as of November, up from 2.3 percent in January.

  • Among major trading partners, China faces the highest tariffs, with effective rates reaching 34.7 percent in November.

  • Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 39.8 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 15.3 percent.

  • New tariffs have raised $168.8 billion in revenue between January 2025 and November 2025 before accounting for income and payroll tax offsets.

  • The share of imports from Canada and Mexico claiming an exemption under USMCA surged to nearly 89 percent in November.


For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator. For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker.
How Have Effective Tariff Rates Changed Over Time?

The Trump administration’s tariff policies have resulted in substantial increases in effective tariff rates. In January, the effective tariff rate was 2.3 percent. By November, the effective tariff rate climbed to 10.5 percent.

Figure 1 shows the evolution of aggregate effective tariff rates since February 2025. The chart compares the observed average effective tariff rate in customs data with a counterfactual that assumes imports would have followed historical trends, which we refer to as the “pre-substitution” rate. The gap between these lines reveals the impact of behavioral responses as importers adjust their purchasing patterns in response to tariff changes.

Figure 1: Aggregate Tariff Rates

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Note: The average effective tariff rate reflects the average rate observed in customs data, which is computed as the value of customs duties as a percentage of the value of imports. Pre-substitution rates are computed with observed effective tariff rates at the source country-product category level assuming the value of imports had followed historical trends.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.

Figure 2: Effective Tariff Rates on Key Trading Partners and Product Categories

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by Major Trading Partner

by Selected Product Category

Note: The effective tariff rate is computed as the value of customs duties as a percentage of the value of imports. These rates are analogous to the post-substitution and pre-substitution rates shown in Figure 1.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.

Among major trading partners, China faces the highest effective rate of 34.7 percent in November 2025. By major product category, steel and aluminum products face the highest effective tariff rates at 39.8 percent, reflecting both existing Section 232 tariffs and later rate increases on June 4 from 25 percent to 50 percent.

How Did Changes in Import Behavior Affect Customs Revenue?

We estimate that tariff rate changes have raised $168.8 billion dollars in customs revenue between January 2025 and November 2025.1 If importers had not accelerated purchases or changed their purchasing patterns, tariff revenue would have further increased by $43.2 billion dollars over this period.

Figure 3: Decomposition of Tariff Revenue Changes

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Notes: The mechanical revenue effect (in red) is the increase in tariff revenue that would have been collected if importers had not accelerated purchases or changed their purchasing patterns. The behavioral revenue effect (in blue) is the decrease in tariff revenue that was not collected due to changes in import behavior. The overall increase in tariff revenue (in black) is the sum of the mechanical and behavioral revenue effects.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.

How Have North American Partners Responded to Tariff Hikes?

Tariff hikes in 2025 have driven a surge in the share of Canadian and Mexican imports that claim exemption from tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Figure 4 shows that the share of imports from Canada and Mexico claiming an exemption under USMCA remained stable through late 2024. This share has sharply increased for both countries in recent months, reaching 89 percent in aggregate by November 2025. This surge reflects importers aggressively leveraging USMCA rules of origin to secure duty-free status and avoid higher tariff rates.

Figure 4: Monthly Share of Import Value Claiming Tariff Exemption Under USMCA

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Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb.



For more detailed analysis of import behavior and tariff avoidance effects, see our comprehensive report on Import Surges and Tariff Avoidance. Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model calculations based on data from U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) DataWeb

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  1. This estimate does not account for indirect effects on other revenue sources such as the income and payroll taxes.  ↩