Projected Tariff Revenues and Effective Rates Under Current Policy
PWBM projects that tariffs enacted by the Trump administration will raise $2.1 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years, with the long-run average effective tariff rate settling near 9.4 percent after importers substitute away from tariffed goods.
Key Points
- PWBM projects that tariffs put in place by the Trump administration will raise $2.1 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years. This corresponds to a reduction in imports of over 8 percent, or $3.4 trillion, due to higher prices on imported goods paid by U.S. consumers and firms.
- Before accounting for substitution, the long-term average effective tariff rate is approximately 11.2 percent, reflecting higher statutory duties on the original import base.
- After substitution, the long-term average effective tariff rate decreases to roughly 9.4 percent, because demand falls for products carrying higher tariffs.
Explore these projections, including tens of thousands of alternative tariff scenarios across countries, regions, and product sets, in our tariff simulator.
Projected Rates Versus Realized Rates
These figures are forward-looking projections under currently enacted, long-term tariff policy. Revenue impacts are projected over a ten-year horizon beginning in 2027. Temporary suspensions, short-term pauses (such as 90-day pauses for reciprocal tariffs), and speculative policy changes are excluded.
They are distinct from the realized (historical) effective tariff rates we report monthly from U.S. International Trade Commission customs data. As of May 2026, that realized average effective tariff rate stood at 7.2 percent — see Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated July 13, 2026).
The two series answer different questions. The realized rate measures duties actually collected to date. The projected rate measures where rates and revenues settle over the long run once importers have fully adjusted their purchasing patterns in response to enacted tariffs.
What the Simulator Provides
The tariff simulator allows users to:
- Build custom tariff scenarios by country, region, and product set, or select from policy scenarios precomputed by PWBM.
- View projected revenue and price effects over a ten-year horizon.
- Download projected tariff rates across the 99 major categories (“Chapters”) defined by the U.S. International Trade Commission, plus 22 more aggregated “Sections” and granular projections for over 10,900 specific items.
For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker.