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Working Paper Demographics Immigration

Immigration and the macroeconomy

In a general equilibrium, overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents and stochastic labor productivity, we account for differences between immigrants and natives to investigate the macroeconomic effects of immigration to the United States. Including household labor productivity transitions jointly with legal status transitions, we model policies which change the size and composition of the immigrant population and analyze implications for government spending and tax revenues. Temporary increases in legal immigration rates lead to long term fiscal benefits, in aggregate and on a per capita basis, in part because of decreases in the old-age dependency ratio. These policies produce long lasting, multi-generational effects, as the children of new immigrants enter the workforce. A six year increase in legal immigration by 25% is predicted to lead to a 0.08% increase in per capita GDP and a 0.41% decrease in total government debt in 2032, but, by 2052, the policy increases per capita GDP by 0.30% while government debt is 1.34% lower than in the baseline. Policies which legalize unauthorized immigrants imply a trade-off between higher wages for newly-legalized workers and increased government debt through additional spending on social programs for those same immigrants. A full legalization policy leads to a 0.02% increase in government debt by 2032 and a 1.26% increase by 2052. Per capita GDP, meanwhile, is 0.01% lower than baseline in 2032 and 0.37% lower in 2052.

Inheritances by race

We estimate that White households inherit over 5.3 times as much as Black households and 6.4 times as much as Hispanic households. White households are 2.8 times more likely than Black households to inherit any wealth. Differences in inheritances reflect and may contribute to wealth differences by race.

Inheritances by race

The Impact of the Build Back Better Act (H.R. 5376) on Inflation

PWBM projects that the spending and taxes in the Build Back Better Act (H.R. 5376), as written, would add up to 0.2 percentage points to inflation over the next two years and reduce inflation by similar amounts later in the decade. As an illustrative alternative, if temporary major spending provisions were made permanent, the bill would add up to a third of a percentage point to near-term inflation and have a negligible impact on inflation later in the decade.

The Impact of the Build Back Better Act (H.R. 5376) on Inflation

Impact of Inflation by Household Income

We estimate that inflation in 2021 will require the average U.S. household to spend around $3,500 more in 2021 to achieve the same level of consumption of goods and services as in recent previous years (2019 or 2020). Moreover, we estimate that lower-income households spend more of their budget on goods and services that have been more impacted by inflation. Lower-income households will have to spend about 7 percent more while higher-income households will have to spend about 6 percent more.

Impact of Inflation by Household Income

Macroeconomic Effects of the White House Build Back Better Budget Reconciliation Framework

PWBM estimates that the White House’s Build Back Better reconciliation framework would increase spending by $1.87 trillion over the 10-year budget window and revenues by $1.56 trillion over the same period. By 2050, the proposal would increase federal debt by 2.0 percent and decrease GDP by 0.1 percent, relative to the current law baseline.

Macroeconomic Effects of the White House Build Back Better Budget Reconciliation Framework

COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Using recently available data on learning loss from pandemic school closures, PWBM estimates that projected 2051 GDP is 1.4 percent lower than it would have been without the learning loss. Extending the 2021-22 school year for all public schools by one month would cost $78 billion and limit the reduction in 2051 GDP to 1.0 percent—a net present value gain in GDP of more than $1 trillion over the next three decades, equal to a $15.14 return for each $1 invested.

COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Expanding the Child Tax Credit: Budgetary, Distributional, and Incentive Effects

PWBM projects the House Ways and Means Committee proposal to temporarily extend the 2021 Child Tax Credit design would provide an average 2022 refundable tax cut of $2,785 to 78 percent of households with children at a budgetary cost of $545 billion over the 10-year budget window. Changes to phase-out and phase-in thresholds would reduce the budgetary cost but also reduce the size of the tax cuts.

Expanding the Child Tax Credit: Budgetary, Distributional, and Incentive Effects