The 2024 Harris Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic and Distributional Effects
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The 2024 Trump Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic and Distributional Effects
For more election analysis, check out our Election 2024 page .
Automatic Retirement Savings Plans for Low-Income Households
We analyze a new illustrative policy to create automatic retirement savings accounts for more than 56 million low-income Americans by 2030. The program is fully financed by removing the gross income adjustment for traditional 401k and similar retirement accounts without any additional contribution from households or employers. The program relies on the existing EITC administration without employer participation. After accounting for risk, individual account balances reach over $200,000 by retirement and any balances can be bequeathed upon death.
President Bidenâs FY2025 Budget Proposal: Budgetary and Economic Effects
PWBM estimates that President Bidenâs FY2025 budget proposal would reduce primary deficits by $1.7 trillion over the 2025-2034 budget window. Accounting for economic feedback effects, GDP falls by 0.8 percent relative to current law in 2034. By 2054, debt falls by 5.4 percent and GDP declines by 1.3 percent relative to current law.
The Budgetary and Economic Effects of permanently extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Actsâ expiring provisions
Note: This document was updated on 5/30/2024 to include a discussion of how much of the policy would be paid for by economic feedback effects.
Policy Options for Reducing the Federal Debt: Spring, 2024
Note: This document was updated on 5/21/2024 to include a conventional distributional analysis and a dynamic distributional analysis of the three policy bundles.
Working Paper Debt
United States' Federal Indebtedness and Fiscal Policy Trade-Offs
We estimate federal spending and taxes by birth-year, gender, race, and education, by interacting official budget totals with microsimulation demographics to project federal budget imbalances. Future federal spending exceeds tax receipts under current policy. The federal Fiscal Imbalance totals $162.6 trillion in present value, six-fold larger than outstanding debt held by the public. Restoring fiscal balance would require immediately and permanently either raising all federal taxes by 26.1 percent or reducing all federal spending by 33.4 percent, or some combination of the two. Holding harmless some population groups from changes, including people over age 59, increases the required adjustment rate.
Recent Trends in US Multinational Activity
We examine recent trends in the activities of US multinationals and their foreign affiliates using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysisâs annual survey of US direct investment abroad. Since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), multinational activity has become more domestically concentrated, continuing a trend that started before the legislation. This has coincided with a decline in the US effective corporate tax rate and relatively stable foreign effective tax rates.
Analysis of President Bidenâs New Plans for Student Loan Debt Relief â April 2024
We estimate that President Bidenâs recently announced âNew Plansâ to provide relief to student borrowers will cost $84 billion, in addition to the $475 billion that we previously estimated for President Bidenâs SAVE plan. Moreover, some debt relief in the New Plans accrues to borrowers in households with income more than the SAVE plan coverage.
