Key Points
PWBM projects the House Ways and Means Committee proposal to temporarily extend the 2021 Child Tax Credit design would cost $545 billion. In 2022, 78 percent of households with children would see a tax cut under the proposal, with an average tax reduction of $2,785.
Lowering the proposed phase-out threshold from $112,500 to $45,000 for most single parents would lower the proposal’s budgetary cost to $463 billion, a decrease of $82 billion over 10 years. Under this design, 74 percent of households with children would benefit.
The House CTC bill raises the average effective marginal tax rate for low-income single parents making less than $10,000. Phasing in the credit at a rate of 15 cents per dollar of earnings would fully offset this marginal tax rate hike but would also reduce the average tax cut for the bottom quintile from $3,765 to $540 in 2022. With that phase-in, this proposal would cost $315 billion over the budget window.
Expanding the Child Tax Credit: Budgetary, Distributional, and Incentive Effects
The American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law in March 2021, temporarily expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC), a flat-dollar benefit for households with children. The expansion is scheduled to expire at the end of 2021 and its extension has been a stated priority in the Biden administration’s American Families Plan and subsequent FY2021 President’s Budget. Now, some Democratic lawmakers in Congress have proposed a similar extension in their reconciliation bill, most recently in the House Ways and Means Committee text.
Reports suggest that the proposed CTC expansion is one area where senators continue to negotiate policy design. Among the contested details are “phase ins” and “phase outs”—the income thresholds over which households begin to either gain, or lose, eligibility for the credit. By conditioning credit eligibility on earnings, these design features affect the CTC’s fiscal impact and the extent to which it provides benefits across the income distribution. Phase-ins and phase-outs also change the implicit marginal tax rate for some households, which in turn influences parents’ decisions about whether – and how much – to work.
In this brief, we analyze a set of illustrative policy options for expanding the CTC with a focus on budgetary and distributional effects. We also examine the extent to which an expansion of the CTC changes work incentives for different types of families. Our results help quantify the trade-offs policymakers face when crafting social spending legislation.
Established in 1997, the CTC has historically provided a fixed-dollar benefit to many households with children, the design of which has evolved in structure and generosity over the years. Under current law, the CTC includes several “fiscal cliffs” wherein the tax benefit of the credit is scheduled to shrink unless Congress extends temporary expansions.
From 2013 to 2017, the CTC provided a $1,000 per-qualifying-child credit that phased out by 5 cents per dollar of income above $75,000 for most single parents ($110,000 for joint returns). The credit was “partially refundable”, meaning that the full value was available to families with adequate income tax liability. But for those with more CTC than liability, the excess was available as a tax refund, calculated as 15 percent of earnings above $3,000. That is, the CTC phased in with income. In Figure 1 below, this iteration of the CTC is referred to as the “pre-TCJA CTC.”
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expanded the CTC both in terms of maximum value and breadth across the income distribution. Starting in 2018, the value was doubled to $2,000 per qualifying child, and the phase-out threshold was raised to $200,000 ($400,000). The phase-in structure was retained and slightly reformed: refunds were capped at the lesser of $1,400 per child or 15 percent of earnings above $2,500. This expansion is temporary under current law and is scheduled to revert to 2017 tax law parameters beginning in 2026. Below, this iteration of the CTC is referred to as the “TCJA CTC.”
In 2021, The America Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) expanded the CTC once again. The maximum per-qualifying child was expanded by an additional amount of $1,600 for children under 6 and $1,000 for older children, bringing the maximum CTC value to $3,600/$3,000. The reform also extended eligibility to 17-year-old children, who previously did not qualify. The additional amount in excess of the prior-law $2,000 value is phased out at a rate of 5 cents per dollar above $112,500 ($150,000) in income. Most notably, the CTC was made “fully refundable”, which means that lower-income households can receive the full CTC value, irrespective of available income tax liability. The credit was also made partially “advanceable”, meaning that rather than waiting until tax filing season to claim it, eligible households could receive 50 percent of the CTC’s presumed value delivered in monthly installments during the tax year. This expansion is temporary and applies only through the end of 2021 at which point the CTC reverts to the TCJA CTC design. Below, this iteration of the CTC is referred to as the “2021 CTC.”
Figure 1 plots the CTC schedule for a single parent with one qualifying child under each of the historical iterations described above. The child is assumed to be under the age of 6.
Figure 2 shows the maximum per-child credit value by year, illustrating the looming fiscal cliffs embedded in current law.
As mentioned above, the value of the CTC falls from $2,000 to $1,000 in 2026. The House Ways and Means reconciliation bill would extend the 2021 CTC parameters through 2025 while also indexing the credit value and initial phase-out thresholds to inflation and increasing the second phase-out threshold to $300,000. The proposal would also continue paying advance monthly payments worth 1/12th of the tax year’s presumed CTC value.
This kind of advanceable credit design can generate overpayments wherein the IRS issues advanced payments to households who end up failing to qualify for the credit during that tax year. When the IRS sends advance payments for a tax year, it must rely on information from the previous tax year to determine eligibility. But a taxpayer’s income, marital status, and child custody situations can change during the year, potentially reducing the amount of CTC they are eligible to claim come tax season. The House bill CTC proposal provides a “safe harbor” against repayment and would generally not require repayment of accidental overpayments except in the case of fraudulent activity.
Lawmakers in Congress interested in reducing the scope of the bill’s proposed expansion may look to phase-outs and phase-ins as sources of budgetary cost savings. By lowering the threshold at which the credit value starts to phase out, fewer households would receive the full credit value (or any credit at all), thereby reducing the budgetary cost.
Adding a phase-in to the House reconciliation bill would also reduce its budgetary cost. One central difference between the prior-law CTC and the 2021/House bill CTC is that under the latter design, households with no income are eligible for the full CTC value. Put differently, the prior-law (and current-law, for 2022 forward) CTC is phased in with earned income. Phase-ins for refundable credits have two notable characteristics. First, they exclude the poorest households from receiving the full value of benefits. Second, phase-in rates can be thought of as negative effective marginal tax rates, wherein an additional dollar of earned income generates more than one dollar of after-tax income. The latter effect is thought to encourage labor force participation due to the “substitution effect”. A long literature attempts to quantify how phase-ins impact the labor supply decisions of low-income parents by studying a similarly-structured tax benefit, the Earned Income Tax Credit. Most studies find a positive effect, though some recent research calls the interpretation of these findings into question.
In this brief, we analyze the effects of such modifications. We construct several illustrative policy scenarios that incorporate changes to the House CTC’s phase-out and phase-in parameters, both independently and considered together.
Table 1 summarizes the policy scenarios. These policy scenarios are described relative to the House bill CTC proposal. For example, Scenario 2 lowers the initial phase-out threshold to $50,000 ($75,000 and $100,000 for heads of household and joint returns, respectively), holding everything else in the House bill CTC proposal fixed.
Scenario | First phase-out threshold | Phase-in rate |
---|---|---|
Scenario 1: House bill | $75K / $112.5K / $150K | NA |
Scenario 2: Reduce the phase-out threshold | $50K / $75K / $100K | NA |
Scenario 3: Reduce the phase-out threshold further | $30K / $45K / $60K | NA |
Scenario 4: Fast phase-in | $75K / $112.5K / $150K | 50% |
Scenario 5: Slow phase-in | $75K / $112.5K / $150K | 15% |
Scenario 6: Phase in and reduce the phase-out threshold | $50K / $75K / $100K | 15% |
Note: the following parameters are common to all scenarios: $3,000 ($3,600) maximum credit value per child under 6 (over 6); 17-year-olds eligible; credit value and first phase-out thresholds indexed to inflation; second phase-out thresholds of $200K/$300K/$400K; advanceable.
Additionally, we consider the budgetary effects of each policy scenario under two assumptions about its permanence: one where the expansion expires at the end of 2025 (as per the House CTC bill), and another where the policy is permanent. The purpose of this exercise is to show the full fiscal cost in the event that a temporary expansion is ultimately extended by a future Congress.
Figure 3 visualizes the CTC schedule under each policy scenario for a single parent. Use the drop-down menu to toggle between the number of qualifying children.
The schedule for a tax credit with both a phase-in and a phase-out is said to be trapezoidal. Note, however, that the shape becomes triangular if the phase-in range intercepts the phase-out range. For example, under Scenario 6, a single parent of 3 young children would be phased-in for the first $62,300 in earnings. At that point, the phase-out range abruptly begins and the maximum credit value never reaches the full $10,800. The shape of this schedule illustrates the trade-offs that policymakers face when attempting to “target” benefits using a combination of phase-ins and phase-outs.
Our results illustrate that there is a trade-off between fiscal cost and generosity of benefits, and also designs that encourage work come at the cost of forgone direct poverty alleviation. In the coming sections, we present detailed breakdowns of the budgetary, distributional, and incentive effects separately. Table 2 summarizes the results of each policy experiment.
Scenario | Budget cost through 2025 (billions of $) | 10-year budget cost if made permanent (billions of $) | Millions of households with children with a tax cut | Average tax change for households with children, 2022 | Average tax cut for households with children in the the bottom income quntile, 2022 | Average change in effective marginal tax rate for a single parent with less than $10K in earnings (percentage points) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 1: House bill | -545 | -1,891 | 40.6 | -$2,285 | -$3,840 | 10.2% |
Scenario 2: Reduce the phase-out threshold | -512 | -1,804 | 38.3 | -$2,145 | -$3,840 | 10.2% |
Scenario 3: Reduce the phase-out threshold further | -463 | -1,670 | 34.5 | -$1,925 | -$3,840 | 10.2% |
Scenario 4: Fast phase-in | -482 | -1,723 | 40.0 | -$2,050 | -$2,740 | -27.2% |
Scenario 5: Slow phase-in | -315 | -1,284 | 38.9 | -$1,250 | -$1,020 | -4.2% |
Scenario 6: Phase in and reduce the phase-out threshold | -283 | -1,197 | 36.6 | -$1,110 | -$540 | -4.2% |
Table 3 reports the annual budgetary effects of each policy scenario over the budget window. We report 10-year totals for two scenarios: one where the expansion expires at the end of 2025, and another where the policy is made permanent. Cost totals for the temporary policy scenarios include roughly $20 billion in post-2025 revenues from making the CTC permanently refundable, a consistent feature of the administration’s CTC expansions.
Scenario | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 10-year budget cost if temporary (expires in 2025) | 10-year budget cost if made permanent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 1: House bill | -95 | -129 | -131 | -136 | -195 | -216 | -224 | -230 | -238 | -244 | -545 | -1,891 |
Scenario 2: Reduce the phase-out threshold | -89 | -121 | -123 | -127 | -186 | -207 | -215 | -220 | -228 | -234 | -512 | -1,804 |
Scenario 3: Reduce the phase-out threshold further | -80 | -109 | -110 | -114 | -173 | -194 | -201 | -206 | -214 | -219 | -463 | -1,670 |
Scenario 4: Fast phase-in | -84 | -111 | -118 | -118 | -179 | -200 | -205 | -213 | -218 | -226 | -482 | -1,723 |
Scenario 5: Slow phase-in | -52 | -70 | -74 | -76 | -135 | -156 | -161 | -167 | -172 | -179 | -315 | -1,284 |
Scenario 6: Phase in and reduce the phase-out threshold | -46 | -62 | -66 | -67 | -126 | -147 | -152 | -158 | -162 | -169 | -283 | -1,197 |
We project that the House bill CTC expansion would cost roughly $545 billion as written.1 If extended beyond 2025, the proposal would increase deficits by $1.9 trillion over fiscal years 2022 to 2031.
Lowering the head of household phase-out threshold from $112,500 to $75,000 or $45,000 reduces the through-2025 budget cost to $512 billion and $463 billion, respectively. Similarly, adding a credit phase-in to the House bill CTC proposal lessens the budgetary impact. A 50 percent phase-in rate lowers the through-2025 cost to $482 billion, whereas the same estimate falls to $315 billion under a more-restrictive 15 percent phase-in rate. The most restrictive CTC expansion modeled, which combines a lower phase-out threshold and the imposition of a phase-in range, would cost $283 billion over the budget window if not extended beyond 2025.
Note that under each proposal, the annual cost rises starting in 2026 due to path of CTC policy under a current-law baseline. As described above, the CTC value is scheduled to fall from $2,000 to $1,000 after 2025.
Changing key design features of the proposed House bill CTC expansion, such as phase-out thresholds and phase-in rates, will affect who benefits from the credit and by how much. Because the CTC by definition excludes childless households, we restrict our sample to households with children.2 Table 4 reports key distributional measures for each illustrative policy scenario, showing changes in 2022 relative to current law—that is, relative to the CTC as it was structured in 2020.3 The drop-down menu allows users to select a policy scenario.
Scenario 1: House bill | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income group | Number of families | Number of families with a tax cut | Share of families with a tax cut | Average tax cut | Average tax change (including families without a cut) | Share of tax change |
Bottom quintile | 6.1 | 5.3 | 87.1% | -$3,765 | -$3,280 | 17.4% |
Second quintile | 12.9 | 11.5 | 89.4% | -$3,320 | -$2,970 | 33.2% |
Middle quintile | 11.1 | 9.4 | 84.6% | -$2,500 | -$2,115 | 20.4% |
Fourth quintile | 10.3 | 8.4 | 81.5% | -$2,345 | -$1,910 | 17.1% |
80-90% | 5.6 | 4.1 | 73.9% | -$2,285 | -$1,690 | 8.2% |
90-95% | 2.9 | 1.1 | 39.3% | -$1,880 | -$740 | 1.8% |
95-99% | 2.3 | 0.7 | 29.8% | -$2,080 | -$620 | 1.3% |
99-99.9% | 0.5 | 0 | 5.5% | -$3,300 | -$180 | 0.1% |
Top 0.1% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | 0.0% |
Total | 51.7 | 40.6 | 78.4% | -$2,820 | -$2,215 | 100.0% |
Scenario 2: Reduce the phase-out threshold | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income group | Number of families | Number of families with a tax cut | Share of families with a tax cut | Average tax cut | Average tax change (including families without a cut) | Share of tax change |
Bottom quintile | 6.1 | 5.3 | 87.1% | -$3,765 | -$3,280 | 18.5% |
Second quintile | 12.9 | 11.5 | 89.4% | -$3,320 | -$2,970 | 35.4% |
Middle quintile | 11.1 | 9.4 | 84.6% | -$2,495 | -$2,110 | 21.7% |
Fourth quintile | 10.3 | 8.1 | 79.0% | -$2,225 | -$1,760 | 16.8% |
80-90% | 5.6 | 2.7 | 47.5% | -$1,850 | -$880 | 4.6% |
90-95% | 2.9 | 0.6 | 20.6% | -$1,950 | -$400 | 1.1% |
95-99% | 2.3 | 0.6 | 27.6% | -$2,010 | -$555 | 1.2% |
99-99.9% | 0.5 | 0 | 5.5% | -$3,300 | -$180 | 0.1% |
Top 0.1% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | 0.0% |
Total | 51.7 | 38.3 | 74.0% | -$2,800 | -$2,070 | 100.0% |
Scenario 3: Reduce the phase-out threshold further | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income group | Number of families | Number of families with a tax cut | Share of families with a tax cut | Average tax cut | Average tax change (including families without a cut) | Share of tax change |
Bottom quintile | 6.1 | 5.3 | 87.1% | -$3,765 | -$3,280 | 20.7% |
Second quintile | 12.9 | 11.5 | 89.4% | -$3,320 | -$2,965 | 39.6% |
Middle quintile | 11.1 | 9.3 | 83.6% | -$2,400 | -$2,005 | 23.0% |
Fourth quintile | 10.3 | 6 | 58.7% | -$1,780 | -$1,045 | 11.1% |
80-90% | 5.6 | 1.3 | 23.4% | -$1,910 | -$445 | 2.6% |
90-95% | 2.9 | 0.5 | 16.4% | -$1,755 | -$285 | 0.9% |
95-99% | 2.3 | 0.6 | 25.4% | -$1,970 | -$500 | 1.2% |
99-99.9% | 0.5 | 0 | 5.5% | -$3,300 | -$180 | 0.1% |
Top 0.1% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | 0.0% |
Total | 51.7 | 34.5 | 66.8% | -$2,775 | -$1,850 | 100.0% |
Scenario 4: Fast phase-in | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income group | Number of families | Number of families with a tax cut | Share of families with a tax cut | Average tax cut | Average tax change (including families without a cut) | Share of tax change |
Bottom quintile | 6.1 | 5.2 | 84.9% | -$2,740 | -$2,325 | 13.4% |
Second quintile | 12.9 | 11.4 | 88.8% | -$3,250 | -$2,880 | 34.9% |
Middle quintile | 11.1 | 9.3 | 83.8% | -$2,485 | -$2,070 | 21.6% |
Fourth quintile | 10.3 | 8.3 | 80.6% | -$2,340 | -$1,865 | 18.1% |
80-90% | 5.6 | 4.1 | 72.7% | -$2,270 | -$1,635 | 8.6% |
90-95% | 2.9 | 1.1 | 37.5% | -$1,875 | -$695 | 1.9% |
95-99% | 2.3 | 0.7 | 28.1% | -$2,060 | -$570 | 1.2% |
99-99.9% | 0.5 | 0 | 5.2% | -$3,280 | -$170 | 0.1% |
Top 0.1% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | 0.0% |
Total | 51.7 | 40 | 77.4% | -$2,660 | -$2,050 | 100.0% |
Scenario 5: Slow phase-in | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income group | Number of families | Number of families with a tax cut | Share of families with a tax cut | Average tax cut | Average tax change (including families without a cut) | Share of tax change |
Bottom quintile | 6.1 | 5.2 | 84.9% | -$540 | -$460 | 4.3% |
Second quintile | 12.9 | 10.6 | 82.4% | -$1,270 | -$1,020 | 20.2% |
Middle quintile | 11.1 | 9.1 | 81.9% | -$1,965 | -$1,585 | 27.1% |
Fourth quintile | 10.3 | 8.2 | 80.1% | -$2,310 | -$1,820 | 28.9% |
80-90% | 5.6 | 4.1 | 72.5% | -$2,260 | -$1,620 | 14.0% |
90-95% | 2.9 | 1.1 | 37.5% | -$1,875 | -$690 | 3.1% |
95-99% | 2.3 | 0.7 | 28.1% | -$2,055 | -$565 | 2.0% |
99-99.9% | 0.5 | 0 | 5.2% | -$3,280 | -$170 | 0.1% |
Top 0.1% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | 0.0% |
Total | 51.7 | 38.9 | 75.3% | -$1,690 | -$1,250 | 100.0% |
Scenario 6: Phase in and reduce the phase-out threshold | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income group | Number of families | Number of families with a tax cut | Share of families with a tax cut | Average tax cut | Average tax change (including families without a cut) | Share of tax change |
Bottom quintile | 6.1 | 5.2 | 84.9% | -$540 | -$460 | 4.9% |
Second quintile | 12.9 | 10.6 | 82.4% | -$1,270 | -$1,020 | 22.8% |
Middle quintile | 11.1 | 9.1 | 81.9% | -$1,960 | -$1,580 | 30.4% |
Fourth quintile | 10.3 | 7.9 | 77.2% | -$2,180 | -$1,655 | 29.6% |
80-90% | 5.6 | 2.6 | 46.1% | -$1,820 | -$820 | 8.0% |
90-95% | 2.9 | 0.6 | 20.0% | -$1,960 | -$380 | 1.9% |
95-99% | 2.3 | 0.6 | 26.2% | -$1,965 | -$505 | 2.0% |
99-99.9% | 0.5 | 0 | 5.2% | -$3,280 | -$170 | 0.2% |
Top 0.1% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | 0.0% |
Total | 51.7 | 36.6 | 70.8% | -$1,595 | -$1,110 | 100.0% |
We project that 78 percent of all households with children would benefit from the proposed CTC expansion in the House bill. On average, households with children would receive an additional $2,215 in 2022. For those in the bottom quintile who qualify and file to receive a larger credit – 90 percent of such households -- the average tax cut would amount to roughly $3,765. A smaller share of families at the top end of the income distribution would benefit, and those who would be partially phased out of the full credit value see a smaller average tax cut.
A CTC expansion design that starts with the House bill CTC proposal but lowers the initial phase-out threshold would further limit the share of households benefiting. Scenario 2 (3), which phases out the first portion of the credit starting at $75,000 ($45,000) for most single parents, would cut taxes for 74 (67) percent of households with children. This loss of eligibility is concentrated in the top 60 percent of households. The full benefits accruing to the low end of the income distribution in the House bill CTC proposal are preserved in these scenarios.
Adding a phase-in to the House bill CTC proposal reduces the average benefit value for the bottom half of the income distribution. Most families in the lowest quintile still benefit from the policy change–85 percent are made better off compared with 89 percent in the no-phase-in structure–but the average tax cut for this group falls from $3,765 to $2,660 in Scenario 4 (50 percent phase-in) and to $540 in Scenario 5 (15 percent phase-in). A 50 percent phase-in rate is “steep” enough such that most families in the second quintile receive the full benefit, but a 15 percent phase-in structure would reduce the average tax change for the second quintile from $2,970 to $1,020. This result illustrates how retaining the prior-law phase-in rate while raising the maximum credit value generates a longer phase in rate. For example, a single parent of two young children would not receive the full benefit unless earning more than $50,000.
The effective marginal tax rate (EMTR) is the tax rate paid on an additional dollar of income. For example, if someone earns a $1,000 raise at work and their tax liability increases by $200, the EMTR is 20 percent. A household’s EMTR can differ from its statutory marginal tax rate when other elements of the tax code, like deductions or credits, are also dependent on income. Phase-outs, which reduce some tax benefit with every additional dollar, increase EMTRs. As described in a previous section, the CTC has historically phased in at 15 percent of earned income and phased out at a rate of 5 percent. Thus, the CTC has tended to reduce EMTRs by 15 percentage points for certain low-income earners, while increasing EMTRs by 5 percentage points for middle- to upper-income households. This basic structure describes current law from 2022 forward.
The 2021 CTC design does not include a phase-in, so the credit does not reduce EMTRs for any household. Because it includes two phase-out ranges, it separately increases MTRs by 5 percent over those two income ranges. The House bill CTC would extend this structure through 2025.
Using PWBM’s tax microsimulation model, for each policy scenario, we calculate the average 2022 EMTR for households with children by income and marital status in 2022. This calculation includes the effects of all provisions of the individual income tax. Figure 4 plots the results. Use the drop-down menu to toggle between married and unmarried households.
For households in the lowest income groups (AGI under $30,000), EMTRs under the current law baseline are negative, on average. This is a result of the phasing in of various benefits and incentives, in particular the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which result in each additional dollar of earnings corresponding to additional tax benefits—meaning these households face a negative EMTR. Households in this income range are most sensitive to proposed changes in the CTC. For this reason, any modification to the phase-in structure of the benefit would have the largest effect on EMTRs, both in relative and absolute terms.
Relative to current law baseline, Scenarios 1 through 3 propose eliminating the phase-in of CTC benefits. This change raises the EMTRs by 12 percentage points (10 percentage points) for married (head of household) households in the under-$10,000 AGI group. The magnitude of this effect decreases for subsequent income groups (where average EMTRs grow increasingly more positive) as the credit phases in.
Scenarios 5 and 6 put forth a phase-in rate of 15 percent (equivalent to current law CTC) but would eliminate the refundability threshold that exists under current law. For married households with children, this reduces EMTRs by 4.2 and 5.9 percentage points for the under-$10,000 and $10K-$20K AGI groups, respectively. Increasing the phase-in rate to 50 percent (Scenario 4) drops the EMTRs by an additional 23 percentage points for the income group under $10K, but the quicker phase-in leaves married tax units earning between 10-20K largely unchanged (a 1 percentage-point reduction from baseline).
For households with children earning over $40,000 in AGI, the average EMTR would remain largely unchanged from current law. Phasing out the credit earlier (as in Scenarios 2, 3, and 6) would result in a modest (about 3 percentage points or less) bump in EMTR for tax units in the phase-out range.
This analysis was produced by Victoria Osorio and John Ricco. Prepared for the website by Mariko Paulson.
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This cost estimate is somewhat larger than PWBM’s previous estimates of similar proposals from the Biden administration. Some of the difference reflects changes in policy (e.g. inflation indexation). The remainder of the difference stems from modeling updates, specifically related to the distribution of would-be qualifying children and the extent to which advance monthly overpayments would not be subject to recapture. ↩
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Income percentile thresholds, however, are calculated based on the entire population, including those who do not file tax returns. ↩
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These measures exclude the effects of indexation, which gives everyone who receives any amount of CTC a negligible tax cut in 2022. ↩
Income,Pre-TCJA CTC,TCJA CTC,2021 CTC 0,0,0,3600 500,0,0,3600 1000,0,0,3600 1500,0,0,3600 2000,0,0,3600 2500,0,0,3600 3000,0,75,3600 3500,75,150,3600 4000,150,225,3600 4500,225,300,3600 5000,300,375,3600 5500,375,450,3600 6000,450,525,3600 6500,525,600,3600 7000,600,675,3600 7500,675,750,3600 8000,750,825,3600 8500,825,900,3600 9000,900,975,3600 9500,975,1050,3600 10000,1000,1125,3600 10500,1000,1200,3600 11000,1000,1275,3600 11500,1000,1350,3600 12000,1000,1400,3600 12500,1000,1400,3600 13000,1000,1400,3600 13500,1000,1400,3600 14000,1000,1400,3600 14500,1000,1400,3600 15000,1000,1400,3600 15500,1000,1400,3600 16000,1000,1400,3600 16500,1000,1400,3600 17000,1000,1400,3600 17500,1000,1400,3600 18000,1000,1400,3600 18500,1000,1400,3600 19000,1000,1420,3600 19500,1000,1470,3600 20000,1000,1520,3600 20500,1000,1570,3600 21000,1000,1620,3600 21500,1000,1670,3600 22000,1000,1720,3600 22500,1000,1770,3600 23000,1000,1820,3600 23500,1000,1870,3600 24000,1000,1920,3600 24500,1000,1970,3600 25000,1000,2000,3600 25500,1000,2000,3600 26000,1000,2000,3600 26500,1000,2000,3600 27000,1000,2000,3600 27500,1000,2000,3600 28000,1000,2000,3600 28500,1000,2000,3600 29000,1000,2000,3600 29500,1000,2000,3600 30000,1000,2000,3600 30500,1000,2000,3600 31000,1000,2000,3600 31500,1000,2000,3600 32000,1000,2000,3600 32500,1000,2000,3600 33000,1000,2000,3600 33500,1000,2000,3600 34000,1000,2000,3600 34500,1000,2000,3600 35000,1000,2000,3600 35500,1000,2000,3600 36000,1000,2000,3600 36500,1000,2000,3600 37000,1000,2000,3600 37500,1000,2000,3600 38000,1000,2000,3600 38500,1000,2000,3600 39000,1000,2000,3600 39500,1000,2000,3600 40000,1000,2000,3600 40500,1000,2000,3600 41000,1000,2000,3600 41500,1000,2000,3600 42000,1000,2000,3600 42500,1000,2000,3600 43000,1000,2000,3600 43500,1000,2000,3600 44000,1000,2000,3600 44500,1000,2000,3600 45000,1000,2000,3600 45500,1000,2000,3600 46000,1000,2000,3600 46500,1000,2000,3600 47000,1000,2000,3600 47500,1000,2000,3600 48000,1000,2000,3600 48500,1000,2000,3600 49000,1000,2000,3600 49500,1000,2000,3600 50000,1000,2000,3600 50500,1000,2000,3600 51000,1000,2000,3600 51500,1000,2000,3600 52000,1000,2000,3600 52500,1000,2000,3600 53000,1000,2000,3600 53500,1000,2000,3600 54000,1000,2000,3600 54500,1000,2000,3600 55000,1000,2000,3600 55500,1000,2000,3600 56000,1000,2000,3600 56500,1000,2000,3600 57000,1000,2000,3600 57500,1000,2000,3600 58000,1000,2000,3600 58500,1000,2000,3600 59000,1000,2000,3600 59500,1000,2000,3600 60000,1000,2000,3600 60500,1000,2000,3600 61000,1000,2000,3600 61500,1000,2000,3600 62000,1000,2000,3600 62500,1000,2000,3600 63000,1000,2000,3600 63500,1000,2000,3600 64000,1000,2000,3600 64500,1000,2000,3600 65000,1000,2000,3600 65500,1000,2000,3600 66000,1000,2000,3600 66500,1000,2000,3600 67000,1000,2000,3600 67500,1000,2000,3600 68000,1000,2000,3600 68500,1000,2000,3600 69000,1000,2000,3600 69500,1000,2000,3600 70000,1000,2000,3600 70500,1000,2000,3600 71000,1000,2000,3600 71500,1000,2000,3600 72000,1000,2000,3600 72500,1000,2000,3600 73000,1000,2000,3600 73500,1000,2000,3600 74000,1000,2000,3600 74500,1000,2000,3600 75000,1000,2000,3600 75500,975,2000,3600 76000,950,2000,3600 76500,925,2000,3600 77000,900,2000,3600 77500,875,2000,3600 78000,850,2000,3600 78500,825,2000,3600 79000,800,2000,3600 79500,775,2000,3600 80000,750,2000,3600 80500,725,2000,3600 81000,700,2000,3600 81500,675,2000,3600 82000,650,2000,3600 82500,625,2000,3600 83000,600,2000,3600 83500,575,2000,3600 84000,550,2000,3600 84500,525,2000,3600 85000,500,2000,3600 85500,475,2000,3600 86000,450,2000,3600 86500,425,2000,3600 87000,400,2000,3600 87500,375,2000,3600 88000,350,2000,3600 88500,325,2000,3600 89000,300,2000,3600 89500,275,2000,3600 90000,250,2000,3600 90500,225,2000,3600 91000,200,2000,3600 91500,175,2000,3600 92000,150,2000,3600 92500,125,2000,3600 93000,100,2000,3600 93500,75,2000,3600 94000,50,2000,3600 94500,25,2000,3600 95000,0,2000,3600 95500,0,2000,3600 96000,0,2000,3600 96500,0,2000,3600 97000,0,2000,3600 97500,0,2000,3600 98000,0,2000,3600 98500,0,2000,3600 99000,0,2000,3600 99500,0,2000,3600 100000,0,2000,3600 100500,0,2000,3600 101000,0,2000,3600 101500,0,2000,3600 102000,0,2000,3600 102500,0,2000,3600 103000,0,2000,3600 103500,0,2000,3600 104000,0,2000,3600 104500,0,2000,3600 105000,0,2000,3600 105500,0,2000,3600 106000,0,2000,3600 106500,0,2000,3600 107000,0,2000,3600 107500,0,2000,3600 108000,0,2000,3600 108500,0,2000,3600 109000,0,2000,3600 109500,0,2000,3600 110000,0,2000,3600 110500,0,2000,3600 111000,0,2000,3600 111500,0,2000,3600 112000,0,2000,3600 112500,0,2000,3600 113000,0,2000,3575 113500,0,2000,3550 114000,0,2000,3525 114500,0,2000,3500 115000,0,2000,3475 115500,0,2000,3450 116000,0,2000,3425 116500,0,2000,3400 117000,0,2000,3375 117500,0,2000,3350 118000,0,2000,3325 118500,0,2000,3300 119000,0,2000,3275 119500,0,2000,3250 120000,0,2000,3225 120500,0,2000,3200 121000,0,2000,3175 121500,0,2000,3150 122000,0,2000,3125 122500,0,2000,3100 123000,0,2000,3075 123500,0,2000,3050 124000,0,2000,3025 124500,0,2000,3000 125000,0,2000,2975 125500,0,2000,2950 126000,0,2000,2925 126500,0,2000,2900 127000,0,2000,2875 127500,0,2000,2850 128000,0,2000,2825 128500,0,2000,2800 129000,0,2000,2775 129500,0,2000,2750 130000,0,2000,2725 130500,0,2000,2700 131000,0,2000,2675 131500,0,2000,2650 132000,0,2000,2625 132500,0,2000,2600 133000,0,2000,2575 133500,0,2000,2550 134000,0,2000,2525 134500,0,2000,2500 135000,0,2000,2475 135500,0,2000,2450 136000,0,2000,2425 136500,0,2000,2400 137000,0,2000,2375 137500,0,2000,2350 138000,0,2000,2325 138500,0,2000,2300 139000,0,2000,2275 139500,0,2000,2250 140000,0,2000,2225 140500,0,2000,2200 141000,0,2000,2175 141500,0,2000,2150 142000,0,2000,2125 142500,0,2000,2100 143000,0,2000,2075 143500,0,2000,2050 144000,0,2000,2025 144500,0,2000,2000 145000,0,2000,2000 145500,0,2000,2000 146000,0,2000,2000 146500,0,2000,2000 147000,0,2000,2000 147500,0,2000,2000 148000,0,2000,2000 148500,0,2000,2000 149000,0,2000,2000 149500,0,2000,2000 150000,0,2000,2000 150500,0,2000,2000 151000,0,2000,2000 151500,0,2000,2000 152000,0,2000,2000 152500,0,2000,2000 153000,0,2000,2000 153500,0,2000,2000 154000,0,2000,2000 154500,0,2000,2000 155000,0,2000,2000 155500,0,2000,2000 156000,0,2000,2000 156500,0,2000,2000 157000,0,2000,2000 157500,0,2000,2000 158000,0,2000,2000 158500,0,2000,2000 159000,0,2000,2000 159500,0,2000,2000 160000,0,2000,2000 160500,0,2000,2000 161000,0,2000,2000 161500,0,2000,2000 162000,0,2000,2000 162500,0,2000,2000 163000,0,2000,2000 163500,0,2000,2000 164000,0,2000,2000 164500,0,2000,2000 165000,0,2000,2000 165500,0,2000,2000 166000,0,2000,2000 166500,0,2000,2000 167000,0,2000,2000 167500,0,2000,2000 168000,0,2000,2000 168500,0,2000,2000 169000,0,2000,2000 169500,0,2000,2000 170000,0,2000,2000 170500,0,2000,2000 171000,0,2000,2000 171500,0,2000,2000 172000,0,2000,2000 172500,0,2000,2000 173000,0,2000,2000 173500,0,2000,2000 174000,0,2000,2000 174500,0,2000,2000 175000,0,2000,2000 175500,0,2000,2000 176000,0,2000,2000 176500,0,2000,2000 177000,0,2000,2000 177500,0,2000,2000 178000,0,2000,2000 178500,0,2000,2000 179000,0,2000,2000 179500,0,2000,2000 180000,0,2000,2000 180500,0,2000,2000 181000,0,2000,2000 181500,0,2000,2000 182000,0,2000,2000 182500,0,2000,2000 183000,0,2000,2000 183500,0,2000,2000 184000,0,2000,2000 184500,0,2000,2000 185000,0,2000,2000 185500,0,2000,2000 186000,0,2000,2000 186500,0,2000,2000 187000,0,2000,2000 187500,0,2000,2000 188000,0,2000,2000 188500,0,2000,2000 189000,0,2000,2000 189500,0,2000,2000 190000,0,2000,2000 190500,0,2000,2000 191000,0,2000,2000 191500,0,2000,2000 192000,0,2000,2000 192500,0,2000,2000 193000,0,2000,2000 193500,0,2000,2000 194000,0,2000,2000 194500,0,2000,2000 195000,0,2000,2000 195500,0,2000,2000 196000,0,2000,2000 196500,0,2000,2000 197000,0,2000,2000 197500,0,2000,2000 198000,0,2000,2000 198500,0,2000,2000 199000,0,2000,2000 199500,0,2000,2000 200000,0,2000,2000 200500,0,1975,1975 201000,0,1950,1950 201500,0,1925,1925 202000,0,1900,1900 202500,0,1875,1875 203000,0,1850,1850 203500,0,1825,1825 204000,0,1800,1800 204500,0,1775,1775 205000,0,1750,1750 205500,0,1725,1725 206000,0,1700,1700 206500,0,1675,1675 207000,0,1650,1650 207500,0,1625,1625 208000,0,1600,1600 208500,0,1575,1575 209000,0,1550,1550 209500,0,1525,1525 210000,0,1500,1500 210500,0,1475,1475 211000,0,1450,1450 211500,0,1425,1425 212000,0,1400,1400 212500,0,1375,1375 213000,0,1350,1350 213500,0,1325,1325 214000,0,1300,1300 214500,0,1275,1275 215000,0,1250,1250 215500,0,1225,1225 216000,0,1200,1200 216500,0,1175,1175 217000,0,1150,1150 217500,0,1125,1125 218000,0,1100,1100 218500,0,1075,1075 219000,0,1050,1050 219500,0,1025,1025 220000,0,1000,1000 220500,0,975,975 221000,0,950,950 221500,0,925,925 222000,0,900,900 222500,0,875,875 223000,0,850,850 223500,0,825,825 224000,0,800,800 224500,0,775,775 225000,0,750,750 225500,0,725,725 226000,0,700,700 226500,0,675,675 227000,0,650,650 227500,0,625,625 228000,0,600,600 228500,0,575,575 229000,0,550,550 229500,0,525,525 230000,0,500,500 230500,0,475,475 231000,0,450,450 231500,0,425,425 232000,0,400,400 232500,0,375,375 233000,0,350,350 233500,0,325,325 234000,0,300,300 234500,0,275,275 235000,0,250,250 235500,0,225,225 236000,0,200,200 236500,0,175,175 237000,0,150,150 237500,0,125,125 238000,0,100,100 238500,0,75,75 239000,0,50,50 239500,0,25,25 240000,0,0,0 240500,0,0,0 241000,0,0,0 241500,0,0,0 242000,0,0,0 242500,0,0,0 243000,0,0,0 243500,0,0,0 244000,0,0,0 244500,0,0,0 245000,0,0,0 245500,0,0,0 246000,0,0,0 246500,0,0,0 247000,0,0,0 247500,0,0,0 248000,0,0,0 248500,0,0,0 249000,0,0,0 249500,0,0,0 250000,0,0,0
Year,Maximum CTC value 2016,1000 2017,1000 2018,2000 2019,2000 2020,2000 2021,3600 2022,2000 2023,2000 2024,2000 2025,2000 2026,1000 2027,1000
Income,Extend ARPA CTC,$75K phaseout,$45K phaseout,50% phase-in,15% phase-in 0,3600,3600,3600,0,0 500,3600,3600,3600,250,75 1000,3600,3600,3600,500,150 1500,3600,3600,3600,750,225 2000,3600,3600,3600,1000,300 2500,3600,3600,3600,1250,375 3000,3600,3600,3600,1500,450 3500,3600,3600,3600,1750,525 4000,3600,3600,3600,2000,600 4500,3600,3600,3600,2250,675 5000,3600,3600,3600,2500,750 5500,3600,3600,3600,2750,825 6000,3600,3600,3600,3000,900 6500,3600,3600,3600,3250,975 7000,3600,3600,3600,3500,1050 7500,3600,3600,3600,3600,1125 8000,3600,3600,3600,3600,1200 8500,3600,3600,3600,3600,1275 9000,3600,3600,3600,3600,1350 9500,3600,3600,3600,3600,1425 10000,3600,3600,3600,3600,1500 10500,3600,3600,3600,3600,1575 11000,3600,3600,3600,3600,1650 11500,3600,3600,3600,3600,1725 12000,3600,3600,3600,3600,1800 12500,3600,3600,3600,3600,1875 13000,3600,3600,3600,3600,1950 13500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2025 14000,3600,3600,3600,3600,2100 14500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2175 15000,3600,3600,3600,3600,2250 15500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2325 16000,3600,3600,3600,3600,2400 16500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2475 17000,3600,3600,3600,3600,2550 17500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2625 18000,3600,3600,3600,3600,2700 18500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2775 19000,3600,3600,3600,3600,2850 19500,3600,3600,3600,3600,2925 20000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3000 20500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3075 21000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3150 21500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3225 22000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3300 22500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3375 23000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3450 23500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3525 24000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 24500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 25000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 25500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 26000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 26500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 27000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 27500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 28000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 28500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 29000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 29500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 30000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 30500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 31000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 31500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 32000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 32500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 33000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 33500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 34000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 34500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 35000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 35500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 36000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 36500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 37000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 37500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 38000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 38500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 39000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 39500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 40000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 40500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 41000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 41500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 42000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 42500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 43000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 43500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 44000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 44500,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 45000,3600,3600,3600,3600,3600 45500,3600,3600,3575,3600,3600 46000,3600,3600,3550,3600,3600 46500,3600,3600,3525,3600,3600 47000,3600,3600,3500,3600,3600 47500,3600,3600,3475,3600,3600 48000,3600,3600,3450,3600,3600 48500,3600,3600,3425,3600,3600 49000,3600,3600,3400,3600,3600 49500,3600,3600,3375,3600,3600 50000,3600,3600,3350,3600,3600 50500,3600,3600,3325,3600,3600 51000,3600,3600,3300,3600,3600 51500,3600,3600,3275,3600,3600 52000,3600,3600,3250,3600,3600 52500,3600,3600,3225,3600,3600 53000,3600,3600,3200,3600,3600 53500,3600,3600,3175,3600,3600 54000,3600,3600,3150,3600,3600 54500,3600,3600,3125,3600,3600 55000,3600,3600,3100,3600,3600 55500,3600,3600,3075,3600,3600 56000,3600,3600,3050,3600,3600 56500,3600,3600,3025,3600,3600 57000,3600,3600,3000,3600,3600 57500,3600,3600,2975,3600,3600 58000,3600,3600,2950,3600,3600 58500,3600,3600,2925,3600,3600 59000,3600,3600,2900,3600,3600 59500,3600,3600,2875,3600,3600 60000,3600,3600,2850,3600,3600 60500,3600,3600,2825,3600,3600 61000,3600,3600,2800,3600,3600 61500,3600,3600,2775,3600,3600 62000,3600,3600,2750,3600,3600 62500,3600,3600,2725,3600,3600 63000,3600,3600,2700,3600,3600 63500,3600,3600,2675,3600,3600 64000,3600,3600,2650,3600,3600 64500,3600,3600,2625,3600,3600 65000,3600,3600,2600,3600,3600 65500,3600,3600,2575,3600,3600 66000,3600,3600,2550,3600,3600 66500,3600,3600,2525,3600,3600 67000,3600,3600,2500,3600,3600 67500,3600,3600,2475,3600,3600 68000,3600,3600,2450,3600,3600 68500,3600,3600,2425,3600,3600 69000,3600,3600,2400,3600,3600 69500,3600,3600,2375,3600,3600 70000,3600,3600,2350,3600,3600 70500,3600,3600,2325,3600,3600 71000,3600,3600,2300,3600,3600 71500,3600,3600,2275,3600,3600 72000,3600,3600,2250,3600,3600 72500,3600,3600,2225,3600,3600 73000,3600,3600,2200,3600,3600 73500,3600,3600,2175,3600,3600 74000,3600,3600,2150,3600,3600 74500,3600,3600,2125,3600,3600 75000,3600,3600,2100,3600,3600 75500,3600,3575,2075,3600,3600 76000,3600,3550,2050,3600,3600 76500,3600,3525,2025,3600,3600 77000,3600,3500,2000,3600,3600 77500,3600,3475,2000,3600,3600 78000,3600,3450,2000,3600,3600 78500,3600,3425,2000,3600,3600 79000,3600,3400,2000,3600,3600 79500,3600,3375,2000,3600,3600 80000,3600,3350,2000,3600,3600 80500,3600,3325,2000,3600,3600 81000,3600,3300,2000,3600,3600 81500,3600,3275,2000,3600,3600 82000,3600,3250,2000,3600,3600 82500,3600,3225,2000,3600,3600 83000,3600,3200,2000,3600,3600 83500,3600,3175,2000,3600,3600 84000,3600,3150,2000,3600,3600 84500,3600,3125,2000,3600,3600 85000,3600,3100,2000,3600,3600 85500,3600,3075,2000,3600,3600 86000,3600,3050,2000,3600,3600 86500,3600,3025,2000,3600,3600 87000,3600,3000,2000,3600,3600 87500,3600,2975,2000,3600,3600 88000,3600,2950,2000,3600,3600 88500,3600,2925,2000,3600,3600 89000,3600,2900,2000,3600,3600 89500,3600,2875,2000,3600,3600 90000,3600,2850,2000,3600,3600 90500,3600,2825,2000,3600,3600 91000,3600,2800,2000,3600,3600 91500,3600,2775,2000,3600,3600 92000,3600,2750,2000,3600,3600 92500,3600,2725,2000,3600,3600 93000,3600,2700,2000,3600,3600 93500,3600,2675,2000,3600,3600 94000,3600,2650,2000,3600,3600 94500,3600,2625,2000,3600,3600 95000,3600,2600,2000,3600,3600 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353000,0,0,0,0,0 353500,0,0,0,0,0 354000,0,0,0,0,0 354500,0,0,0,0,0 355000,0,0,0,0,0 355500,0,0,0,0,0 356000,0,0,0,0,0 356500,0,0,0,0,0 357000,0,0,0,0,0 357500,0,0,0,0,0 358000,0,0,0,0,0 358500,0,0,0,0,0 359000,0,0,0,0,0 359500,0,0,0,0,0 360000,0,0,0,0,0 360500,0,0,0,0,0 361000,0,0,0,0,0 361500,0,0,0,0,0 362000,0,0,0,0,0 362500,0,0,0,0,0 363000,0,0,0,0,0 363500,0,0,0,0,0 364000,0,0,0,0,0 364500,0,0,0,0,0 365000,0,0,0,0,0 365500,0,0,0,0,0 366000,0,0,0,0,0 366500,0,0,0,0,0 367000,0,0,0,0,0 367500,0,0,0,0,0 368000,0,0,0,0,0 368500,0,0,0,0,0 369000,0,0,0,0,0 369500,0,0,0,0,0 370000,0,0,0,0,0 370500,0,0,0,0,0 371000,0,0,0,0,0 371500,0,0,0,0,0 372000,0,0,0,0,0 372500,0,0,0,0,0 373000,0,0,0,0,0 373500,0,0,0,0,0 374000,0,0,0,0,0 374500,0,0,0,0,0 375000,0,0,0,0,0 375500,0,0,0,0,0 376000,0,0,0,0,0 376500,0,0,0,0,0 377000,0,0,0,0,0 377500,0,0,0,0,0 378000,0,0,0,0,0 378500,0,0,0,0,0 379000,0,0,0,0,0 379500,0,0,0,0,0 380000,0,0,0,0,0 380500,0,0,0,0,0 381000,0,0,0,0,0 381500,0,0,0,0,0 382000,0,0,0,0,0 382500,0,0,0,0,0 383000,0,0,0,0,0 383500,0,0,0,0,0 384000,0,0,0,0,0 384500,0,0,0,0,0 385000,0,0,0,0,0 385500,0,0,0,0,0 386000,0,0,0,0,0 386500,0,0,0,0,0 387000,0,0,0,0,0 387500,0,0,0,0,0 388000,0,0,0,0,0 388500,0,0,0,0,0 389000,0,0,0,0,0 389500,0,0,0,0,0 390000,0,0,0,0,0 390500,0,0,0,0,0 391000,0,0,0,0,0 391500,0,0,0,0,0 392000,0,0,0,0,0 392500,0,0,0,0,0 393000,0,0,0,0,0 393500,0,0,0,0,0 394000,0,0,0,0,0 394500,0,0,0,0,0 395000,0,0,0,0,0 395500,0,0,0,0,0 396000,0,0,0,0,0 396500,0,0,0,0,0 397000,0,0,0,0,0 397500,0,0,0,0,0 398000,0,0,0,0,0 398500,0,0,0,0,0 399000,0,0,0,0,0 399500,0,0,0,0,0 400000,0,0,0,0,0 400500,0,0,0,0,0 401000,0,0,0,0,0 401500,0,0,0,0,0 402000,0,0,0,0,0 402500,0,0,0,0,0 403000,0,0,0,0,0 403500,0,0,0,0,0 404000,0,0,0,0,0 404500,0,0,0,0,0 405000,0,0,0,0,0 405500,0,0,0,0,0 406000,0,0,0,0,0 406500,0,0,0,0,0 407000,0,0,0,0,0 407500,0,0,0,0,0 408000,0,0,0,0,0 408500,0,0,0,0,0 409000,0,0,0,0,0 409500,0,0,0,0,0 410000,0,0,0,0,0 410500,0,0,0,0,0 411000,0,0,0,0,0 411500,0,0,0,0,0 412000,0,0,0,0,0 412500,0,0,0,0,0 413000,0,0,0,0,0 413500,0,0,0,0,0 414000,0,0,0,0,0 414500,0,0,0,0,0 415000,0,0,0,0,0 415500,0,0,0,0,0 416000,0,0,0,0,0 416500,0,0,0,0,0 417000,0,0,0,0,0 417500,0,0,0,0,0 418000,0,0,0,0,0 418500,0,0,0,0,0 419000,0,0,0,0,0 419500,0,0,0,0,0 420000,0,0,0,0,0
Income,Extend ARPA CTC,$75K phaseout,$45K phaseout,50% phase-in,15% phase-in 0,10800,10800,10800,0,0 500,10800,10800,10800,250,75 1000,10800,10800,10800,500,150 1500,10800,10800,10800,750,225 2000,10800,10800,10800,1000,300 2500,10800,10800,10800,1250,375 3000,10800,10800,10800,1500,450 3500,10800,10800,10800,1750,525 4000,10800,10800,10800,2000,600 4500,10800,10800,10800,2250,675 5000,10800,10800,10800,2500,750 5500,10800,10800,10800,2750,825 6000,10800,10800,10800,3000,900 6500,10800,10800,10800,3250,975 7000,10800,10800,10800,3500,1050 7500,10800,10800,10800,3750,1125 8000,10800,10800,10800,4000,1200 8500,10800,10800,10800,4250,1275 9000,10800,10800,10800,4500,1350 9500,10800,10800,10800,4750,1425 10000,10800,10800,10800,5000,1500 10500,10800,10800,10800,5250,1575 11000,10800,10800,10800,5500,1650 11500,10800,10800,10800,5750,1725 12000,10800,10800,10800,6000,1800 12500,10800,10800,10800,6250,1875 13000,10800,10800,10800,6500,1950 13500,10800,10800,10800,6750,2025 14000,10800,10800,10800,7000,2100 14500,10800,10800,10800,7250,2175 15000,10800,10800,10800,7500,2250 15500,10800,10800,10800,7750,2325 16000,10800,10800,10800,8000,2400 16500,10800,10800,10800,8250,2475 17000,10800,10800,10800,8500,2550 17500,10800,10800,10800,8750,2625 18000,10800,10800,10800,9000,2700 18500,10800,10800,10800,9250,2775 19000,10800,10800,10800,9500,2850 19500,10800,10800,10800,9750,2925 20000,10800,10800,10800,10000,3000 20500,10800,10800,10800,10250,3075 21000,10800,10800,10800,10500,3150 21500,10800,10800,10800,10750,3225 22000,10800,10800,10800,10800,3300 22500,10800,10800,10800,10800,3375 23000,10800,10800,10800,10800,3450 23500,10800,10800,10800,10800,3525 24000,10800,10800,10800,10800,3600 24500,10800,10800,10800,10800,3675 25000,10800,10800,10800,10800,3750 25500,10800,10800,10800,10800,3825 26000,10800,10800,10800,10800,3900 26500,10800,10800,10800,10800,3975 27000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4050 27500,10800,10800,10800,10800,4125 28000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4200 28500,10800,10800,10800,10800,4275 29000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4350 29500,10800,10800,10800,10800,4425 30000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4500 30500,10800,10800,10800,10800,4575 31000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4650 31500,10800,10800,10800,10800,4725 32000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4800 32500,10800,10800,10800,10800,4875 33000,10800,10800,10800,10800,4950 33500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5025 34000,10800,10800,10800,10800,5100 34500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5175 35000,10800,10800,10800,10800,5250 35500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5325 36000,10800,10800,10800,10800,5400 36500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5475 37000,10800,10800,10800,10800,5550 37500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5625 38000,10800,10800,10800,10800,5700 38500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5775 39000,10800,10800,10800,10800,5850 39500,10800,10800,10800,10800,5925 40000,10800,10800,10800,10800,6000 40500,10800,10800,10800,10800,6075 41000,10800,10800,10800,10800,6150 41500,10800,10800,10800,10800,6225 42000,10800,10800,10800,10800,6300 42500,10800,10800,10800,10800,6375 43000,10800,10800,10800,10800,6450 43500,10800,10800,10800,10800,6525 44000,10800,10800,10800,10800,6600 44500,10800,10800,10800,10800,6675 45000,10800,10800,10800,10800,6750 45500,10800,10800,10775,10800,6825 46000,10800,10800,10750,10800,6900 46500,10800,10800,10725,10800,6975 47000,10800,10800,10700,10800,7050 47500,10800,10800,10675,10800,7125 48000,10800,10800,10650,10800,7200 48500,10800,10800,10625,10800,7275 49000,10800,10800,10600,10800,7350 49500,10800,10800,10575,10800,7425 50000,10800,10800,10550,10800,7500 50500,10800,10800,10525,10800,7575 51000,10800,10800,10500,10800,7650 51500,10800,10800,10475,10800,7725 52000,10800,10800,10450,10800,7800 52500,10800,10800,10425,10800,7875 53000,10800,10800,10400,10800,7950 53500,10800,10800,10375,10800,8025 54000,10800,10800,10350,10800,8100 54500,10800,10800,10325,10800,8175 55000,10800,10800,10300,10800,8250 55500,10800,10800,10275,10800,8325 56000,10800,10800,10250,10800,8400 56500,10800,10800,10225,10800,8475 57000,10800,10800,10200,10800,8550 57500,10800,10800,10175,10800,8625 58000,10800,10800,10150,10800,8700 58500,10800,10800,10125,10800,8775 59000,10800,10800,10100,10800,8850 59500,10800,10800,10075,10800,8925 60000,10800,10800,10050,10800,9000 60500,10800,10800,10025,10800,9075 61000,10800,10800,10000,10800,9150 61500,10800,10800,9975,10800,9225 62000,10800,10800,9950,10800,9300 62500,10800,10800,9925,10800,9375 63000,10800,10800,9900,10800,9450 63500,10800,10800,9875,10800,9525 64000,10800,10800,9850,10800,9600 64500,10800,10800,9825,10800,9675 65000,10800,10800,9800,10800,9750 65500,10800,10800,9775,10800,9825 66000,10800,10800,9750,10800,9900 66500,10800,10800,9725,10800,9975 67000,10800,10800,9700,10800,10050 67500,10800,10800,9675,10800,10125 68000,10800,10800,9650,10800,10200 68500,10800,10800,9625,10800,10275 69000,10800,10800,9600,10800,10350 69500,10800,10800,9575,10800,10425 70000,10800,10800,9550,10800,10500 70500,10800,10800,9525,10800,10575 71000,10800,10800,9500,10800,10650 71500,10800,10800,9475,10800,10725 72000,10800,10800,9450,10800,10800 72500,10800,10800,9425,10800,10800 73000,10800,10800,9400,10800,10800 73500,10800,10800,9375,10800,10800 74000,10800,10800,9350,10800,10800 74500,10800,10800,9325,10800,10800 75000,10800,10800,9300,10800,10800 75500,10800,10775,9275,10800,10800 76000,10800,10750,9250,10800,10800 76500,10800,10725,9225,10800,10800 77000,10800,10700,9200,10800,10800 77500,10800,10675,9175,10800,10800 78000,10800,10650,9150,10800,10800 78500,10800,10625,9125,10800,10800 79000,10800,10600,9100,10800,10800 79500,10800,10575,9075,10800,10800 80000,10800,10550,9050,10800,10800 80500,10800,10525,9025,10800,10800 81000,10800,10500,9000,10800,10800 81500,10800,10475,8975,10800,10800 82000,10800,10450,8950,10800,10800 82500,10800,10425,8925,10800,10800 83000,10800,10400,8900,10800,10800 83500,10800,10375,8875,10800,10800 84000,10800,10350,8850,10800,10800 84500,10800,10325,8825,10800,10800 85000,10800,10300,8800,10800,10800 85500,10800,10275,8775,10800,10800 86000,10800,10250,8750,10800,10800 86500,10800,10225,8725,10800,10800 87000,10800,10200,8700,10800,10800 87500,10800,10175,8675,10800,10800 88000,10800,10150,8650,10800,10800 88500,10800,10125,8625,10800,10800 89000,10800,10100,8600,10800,10800 89500,10800,10075,8575,10800,10800 90000,10800,10050,8550,10800,10800 90500,10800,10025,8525,10800,10800 91000,10800,10000,8500,10800,10800 91500,10800,9975,8475,10800,10800 92000,10800,9950,8450,10800,10800 92500,10800,9925,8425,10800,10800 93000,10800,9900,8400,10800,10800 93500,10800,9875,8375,10800,10800 94000,10800,9850,8350,10800,10800 94500,10800,9825,8325,10800,10800 95000,10800,9800,8300,10800,10800 95500,10800,9775,8275,10800,10800 96000,10800,9750,8250,10800,10800 96500,10800,9725,8225,10800,10800 97000,10800,9700,8200,10800,10800 97500,10800,9675,8175,10800,10800 98000,10800,9650,8150,10800,10800 98500,10800,9625,8125,10800,10800 99000,10800,9600,8100,10800,10800 99500,10800,9575,8075,10800,10800 100000,10800,9550,8050,10800,10800 100500,10800,9525,8025,10800,10800 101000,10800,9500,8000,10800,10800 101500,10800,9475,7975,10800,10800 102000,10800,9450,7950,10800,10800 102500,10800,9425,7925,10800,10800 103000,10800,9400,7900,10800,10800 103500,10800,9375,7875,10800,10800 104000,10800,9350,7850,10800,10800 104500,10800,9325,7825,10800,10800 105000,10800,9300,7800,10800,10800 105500,10800,9275,7775,10800,10800 106000,10800,9250,7750,10800,10800 106500,10800,9225,7725,10800,10800 107000,10800,9200,7700,10800,10800 107500,10800,9175,7675,10800,10800 108000,10800,9150,7650,10800,10800 108500,10800,9125,7625,10800,10800 109000,10800,9100,7600,10800,10800 109500,10800,9075,7575,10800,10800 110000,10800,9050,7550,10800,10800 110500,10800,9025,7525,10800,10800 111000,10800,9000,7500,10800,10800 111500,10800,8975,7475,10800,10800 112000,10800,8950,7450,10800,10800 112500,10800,8925,7425,10800,10800 113000,10775,8900,7400,10775,10775 113500,10750,8875,7375,10750,10750 114000,10725,8850,7350,10725,10725 114500,10700,8825,7325,10700,10700 115000,10675,8800,7300,10675,10675 115500,10650,8775,7275,10650,10650 116000,10625,8750,7250,10625,10625 116500,10600,8725,7225,10600,10600 117000,10575,8700,7200,10575,10575 117500,10550,8675,7175,10550,10550 118000,10525,8650,7150,10525,10525 118500,10500,8625,7125,10500,10500 119000,10475,8600,7100,10475,10475 119500,10450,8575,7075,10450,10450 120000,10425,8550,7050,10425,10425 120500,10400,8525,7025,10400,10400 121000,10375,8500,7000,10375,10375 121500,10350,8475,6975,10350,10350 122000,10325,8450,6950,10325,10325 122500,10300,8425,6925,10300,10300 123000,10275,8400,6900,10275,10275 123500,10250,8375,6875,10250,10250 124000,10225,8350,6850,10225,10225 124500,10200,8325,6825,10200,10200 125000,10175,8300,6800,10175,10175 125500,10150,8275,6775,10150,10150 126000,10125,8250,6750,10125,10125 126500,10100,8225,6725,10100,10100 127000,10075,8200,6700,10075,10075 127500,10050,8175,6675,10050,10050 128000,10025,8150,6650,10025,10025 128500,10000,8125,6625,10000,10000 129000,9975,8100,6600,9975,9975 129500,9950,8075,6575,9950,9950 130000,9925,8050,6550,9925,9925 130500,9900,8025,6525,9900,9900 131000,9875,8000,6500,9875,9875 131500,9850,7975,6475,9850,9850 132000,9825,7950,6450,9825,9825 132500,9800,7925,6425,9800,9800 133000,9775,7900,6400,9775,9775 133500,9750,7875,6375,9750,9750 134000,9725,7850,6350,9725,9725 134500,9700,7825,6325,9700,9700 135000,9675,7800,6300,9675,9675 135500,9650,7775,6275,9650,9650 136000,9625,7750,6250,9625,9625 136500,9600,7725,6225,9600,9600 137000,9575,7700,6200,9575,9575 137500,9550,7675,6175,9550,9550 138000,9525,7650,6150,9525,9525 138500,9500,7625,6125,9500,9500 139000,9475,7600,6100,9475,9475 139500,9450,7575,6075,9450,9450 140000,9425,7550,6050,9425,9425 140500,9400,7525,6025,9400,9400 141000,9375,7500,6000,9375,9375 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358500,3075,3075,3075,3075,3075 359000,3050,3050,3050,3050,3050 359500,3025,3025,3025,3025,3025 360000,3000,3000,3000,3000,3000 360500,2975,2975,2975,2975,2975 361000,2950,2950,2950,2950,2950 361500,2925,2925,2925,2925,2925 362000,2900,2900,2900,2900,2900 362500,2875,2875,2875,2875,2875 363000,2850,2850,2850,2850,2850 363500,2825,2825,2825,2825,2825 364000,2800,2800,2800,2800,2800 364500,2775,2775,2775,2775,2775 365000,2750,2750,2750,2750,2750 365500,2725,2725,2725,2725,2725 366000,2700,2700,2700,2700,2700 366500,2675,2675,2675,2675,2675 367000,2650,2650,2650,2650,2650 367500,2625,2625,2625,2625,2625 368000,2600,2600,2600,2600,2600 368500,2575,2575,2575,2575,2575 369000,2550,2550,2550,2550,2550 369500,2525,2525,2525,2525,2525 370000,2500,2500,2500,2500,2500 370500,2475,2475,2475,2475,2475 371000,2450,2450,2450,2450,2450 371500,2425,2425,2425,2425,2425 372000,2400,2400,2400,2400,2400 372500,2375,2375,2375,2375,2375 373000,2350,2350,2350,2350,2350 373500,2325,2325,2325,2325,2325 374000,2300,2300,2300,2300,2300 374500,2275,2275,2275,2275,2275 375000,2250,2250,2250,2250,2250 375500,2225,2225,2225,2225,2225 376000,2200,2200,2200,2200,2200 376500,2175,2175,2175,2175,2175 377000,2150,2150,2150,2150,2150 377500,2125,2125,2125,2125,2125 378000,2100,2100,2100,2100,2100 378500,2075,2075,2075,2075,2075 379000,2050,2050,2050,2050,2050 379500,2025,2025,2025,2025,2025 380000,2000,2000,2000,2000,2000 380500,1975,1975,1975,1975,1975 381000,1950,1950,1950,1950,1950 381500,1925,1925,1925,1925,1925 382000,1900,1900,1900,1900,1900 382500,1875,1875,1875,1875,1875 383000,1850,1850,1850,1850,1850 383500,1825,1825,1825,1825,1825 384000,1800,1800,1800,1800,1800 384500,1775,1775,1775,1775,1775 385000,1750,1750,1750,1750,1750 385500,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725 386000,1700,1700,1700,1700,1700 386500,1675,1675,1675,1675,1675 387000,1650,1650,1650,1650,1650 387500,1625,1625,1625,1625,1625 388000,1600,1600,1600,1600,1600 388500,1575,1575,1575,1575,1575 389000,1550,1550,1550,1550,1550 389500,1525,1525,1525,1525,1525 390000,1500,1500,1500,1500,1500 390500,1475,1475,1475,1475,1475 391000,1450,1450,1450,1450,1450 391500,1425,1425,1425,1425,1425 392000,1400,1400,1400,1400,1400 392500,1375,1375,1375,1375,1375 393000,1350,1350,1350,1350,1350 393500,1325,1325,1325,1325,1325 394000,1300,1300,1300,1300,1300 394500,1275,1275,1275,1275,1275 395000,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250 395500,1225,1225,1225,1225,1225 396000,1200,1200,1200,1200,1200 396500,1175,1175,1175,1175,1175 397000,1150,1150,1150,1150,1150 397500,1125,1125,1125,1125,1125 398000,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100 398500,1075,1075,1075,1075,1075 399000,1050,1050,1050,1050,1050 399500,1025,1025,1025,1025,1025 400000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000 400500,975,975,975,975,975 401000,950,950,950,950,950 401500,925,925,925,925,925 402000,900,900,900,900,900 402500,875,875,875,875,875 403000,850,850,850,850,850 403500,825,825,825,825,825 404000,800,800,800,800,800 404500,775,775,775,775,775 405000,750,750,750,750,750 405500,725,725,725,725,725 406000,700,700,700,700,700 406500,675,675,675,675,675 407000,650,650,650,650,650 407500,625,625,625,625,625 408000,600,600,600,600,600 408500,575,575,575,575,575 409000,550,550,550,550,550 409500,525,525,525,525,525 410000,500,500,500,500,500 410500,475,475,475,475,475 411000,450,450,450,450,450 411500,425,425,425,425,425 412000,400,400,400,400,400 412500,375,375,375,375,375 413000,350,350,350,350,350 413500,325,325,325,325,325 414000,300,300,300,300,300 414500,275,275,275,275,275 415000,250,250,250,250,250 415500,225,225,225,225,225 416000,200,200,200,200,200 416500,175,175,175,175,175 417000,150,150,150,150,150 417500,125,125,125,125,125 418000,100,100,100,100,100 418500,75,75,75,75,75 419000,50,50,50,50,50 419500,25,25,25,25,25 420000,0,0,0,0,0
IncomeGroup,Baseline,01_ExtendARPA,02_PhaseOut30,03_PhaseOut50,04_PhaseIn50,05_PhaseIn15,06_Combo_50K_15 $0 - $9_999,-0.37812,-0.27641,-0.27641,-0.27641,-0.65045,-0.41997,-0.41997 $10K - $19_999,-0.17112,-0.08759,-0.08759,-0.08759,-0.20955,-0.23009,-0.23009 $20K - $29_999,0.012287,0.092695,0.092695,0.092695,0.068208,-0.02093,-0.02093 $30K - $39_999,0.169648,0.239576,0.239576,0.239576,0.233146,0.139863,0.139863 $40K - $49_999,0.216954,0.246327,0.246327,0.246327,0.238204,0.176342,0.176342 $50K - $74_999,0.138785,0.144222,0.15764,0.144222,0.136313,0.111408,0.111408 $75K - $99_999,0.11584,0.113812,0.144504,0.113812,0.109434,0.108343,0.108349 $100K - $149_999,0.192786,0.190612,0.207567,0.216107,0.187647,0.188629,0.215314 $150K - $199_999,0.226617,0.249777,0.230059,0.238761,0.250145,0.250545,0.236926 $200K - $499_999,0.252873,0.259445,0.253351,0.254096,0.257693,0.258287,0.253455
IncomeGroup,Baseline,01_ExtendARPA,02_PhaseOut30,03_PhaseOut50,04_PhaseIn50,05_PhaseIn15,06_Combo_50K_15 $0 - $9_999,-0.45599,-0.33783,-0.33783,-0.33783,-0.62894,-0.48646,-0.48646 $10K - $19_999,-0.15654,-0.074,-0.074,-0.074,-0.16688,-0.22275,-0.22275 $20K - $29_999,0.137165,0.223598,0.223598,0.223598,0.210549,0.128459,0.128459 $30K - $39_999,0.227218,0.261266,0.261266,0.261266,0.255611,0.187863,0.187863 $40K - $49_999,0.219444,0.228749,0.236807,0.228749,0.225249,0.187676,0.187676 $50K - $74_999,0.122548,0.122339,0.154475,0.122339,0.119417,0.105537,0.10554 $75K - $99_999,0.216706,0.213643,0.233845,0.239068,0.201713,0.206179,0.234969 $100K - $149_999,0.231984,0.244135,0.237027,0.250188,0.235258,0.238879,0.244449 $150K - $199_999,0.249989,0.262954,0.251287,0.252535,0.225464,0.243911,0.237594 $200K - $499_999,0.340485,0.344858,0.343138,0.343801,0.307033,0.332847,0.331971