Decomposing the Decline in Estate Tax Liability Since 2000
We estimate that the federal estate tax would have generated 9 times more revenue in 2019 without the tax changes in 2001 and 2017.
Victoria Osorio
Recent Related Posts
Measuring Fertility in the United States
The U.S. population’s total fertility rate is now approximately 1.7 births per female, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 that is required for the U.S. population not to shrink without increases in immigration. Women are delaying motherhood, from the 2006 average age range of 25 to 29 to the 30 to 34 age range today.
Mortality by Education—an Update
In 2018 and 2019, age-specific mortality rates for ages 60 through 80 continued to decline by 0.5 percent annually. For the same age group, age-specific mortality increased for those without a high school diploma but decreased 2.5 percent for those with a BA or advanced degrees.
The Decline in Fertility: The Role of Marriage and Education
We relate the decline in the birth rate to two demographic factors closely associated with women’s fertility patterns: marriage and educational attainment. Married women are at least three percentage points more likely to have a child than unmarried women, and simultaneously marriage rates among women 25 to 29 declined 15.9 percent since 2006. Women who complete 4 years of college are less likely to have a child, while completion rates of 4 years of college rose 10 percent for women over the past decade.
Inheritances by race
We estimate that White households inherit over 5.3 times as much as Black households and 6.4 times as much as Hispanic households. White households are 2.8 times more likely than Black households to inherit any wealth. Differences in inheritances reflect and may contribute to wealth differences by race.
Expanding the Child Tax Credit: Budgetary, Distributional, and Incentive Effects
PWBM projects the House Ways and Means Committee proposal to temporarily extend the 2021 Child Tax Credit design would provide an average 2022 refundable tax cut of $2,785 to 78 percent of households with children at a budgetary cost of $545 billion over the 10-year budget window. Changes to phase-out and phase-in thresholds would reduce the budgetary cost but also reduce the size of the tax cuts.
Inheritances by Age and Income Group
Households in the top 5 percent of the income distribution receive inheritances between 4 to 12 times larger than households in the bottom 80 percent, depending on the exact definition of inheritance used.
President Biden's American Families Plan: Budgetary and Macroeconomic effects
PWBM projects that the American Families Plan (AFP) would spend $2.3 trillion, about $500 billion more than the White House’s estimate, over the 10-year budget window, 2022-2031. We estimate that AFP would raise 1.3 trillion in new tax revenue over the same period. By 2050, the AFP would increase government debt by about 4 percent and decrease GDP by 0.3 percent.
Incentive Effects of the Romney and Biden/Neal Child Tax Credit Proposals
This post compares effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) under the Family Security Act proposed by Sen. Romney and the Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion proposed by Rep. Neal and President Biden. Married families with children and less than $45,000 in income would face EMTRs 4.4 percentage points higher under the Romney proposal and 6 percentage points higher under the Biden/Neal proposal.
Direct Aid in the Biden COVID Relief Plan: Budgetary and Distributional Effects
PWBM estimates that three provisions in the Biden COVID relief plan—direct payments, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit—together would cost $595 billion in calendar year 2021, with 99 percent of households in the bottom 80 percent of incomes receiving a benefit.
