Alexander Arnon

Alexander Arnon

Alexander Arnon leads much of PWBM’s applied policy analysis work, with primary responsibility for microsimulation modeling and conventional budget scoring. His work spans a wide range of policy areas—including tax policy, immigration, demographics, labor markets, and major fiscal legislation—and focuses on producing timely, rigorous estimates of how policy changes affect the federal budget and U.S. economy.

Alex joined PWBM as its first analyst in 2015. Previously, he was an analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. His work is regularly cited by policymakers and in media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and Bloomberg.

He received a B.A. with honors in economics from McGill University.

Recent Related Posts

Projected Effects of the New (March 2026) H-1B Visa Lottery

We project that the new DHS H-1B selection rule, going into effect in March 2026, will shift the H-1B visa allocation toward higher-paid and higher-education foreign-born workers, but by less than alternative designs being debated. Based on data from the current random lottery in the last five years, we estimate that the new DHS rule will have no significant impact on wages of U.S.-born workers, including non-college, college-educated, and STEM workers. Any reduction in competition from fewer STEM H-1Bs is offset by a reduction in productivity growth.

Projected Effects of the New (March 2026) H-1B Visa Lottery

550,000 Workers Lose Status by End of 2025: Potential Impact by State and Industry

Over 700,000 Temporary Protected Status (TPS) recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. We estimate that TPS recipients contribute over $36 billion in annual GDP. Withdrawing their work authorization could add to labor shortages in construction, cleaning, and hospitality, especially in Florida, Texas and New York.

550,000 Workers Lose Status by End of 2025: Potential Impact by State and Industry

The Cost of the Employee Retention Tax Credit

PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. Most of the ERC was paid retroactively, well after pandemic-related economic disruptions had ended, limiting its effectiveness as a worker retention incentive.

The Cost of the Employee Retention Tax Credit

Eliminating Excess Benefits from the Section 199A Deduction: Options for Reform under TCJA Extension

The deduction for pass-through income under section 199A provides a benefit in excess of 20 percent (“excess benefit”) for some taxpayers due to its interaction with the progressive tax rate system. As Congress considers extending 199A beyond 2025, options to remove the excess benefit while maintaining the 20 percent tax benefit could raise between $46B and $178B over the 10-year budget window, depending on design.

Eliminating Excess Benefits from the Section 199A Deduction: Options for Reform under TCJA Extension

Update on the Revenue Effects of GILTI and FDII, 2026 Rate Changes, and Proposed Policy Reforms

We analyze new data from the US Treasury to examine historical revenue effects of TCJA’s international corporate tax provisions. We also provide updated conventional estimates to assess the revenue impact of scheduled 2026 rate increases on foreign income of US corporations and assess several proposals that aim to further increase tax revenue.

Update on the Revenue Effects of GILTI and FDII, 2026 Rate Changes, and Proposed Policy Reforms