Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated June 16, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of April 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 7.0 percent.
PWBM
Recent Related
The Demographic, Economic, and Conventional Budget Outlook, 2026-2056 (May 2026)
PWBM projects the U.S. resident population will grow from 343.5 million in 2026 to 371.5 million in 2056, with net immigration accounting for more than 100 percent of this growth. Real GDP growth slows from 2.2 percent to 1.1 percent as growing mandatory spending is matched with shrinking working-age labor force participation.
The Experience Benchmarking Alternative to the 2026 H-1B Prevailing Wage Rule
DOL's proposed experience benchmarking alternative would raise mean H-1B compensation by $27,686 (+24.7%) over the random lottery — $7,076 above the NPRM primary rule — while excluding 56 percent of current registrations and shifting selections toward younger workers.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated May 12, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. We estimate an effective tariff rate of 7.1 percent as of March 2026, the first full month after the IEEPA tariffs were replaced by a global 10 percent tariff implemented under Section 122.
Blog Tax Policy
Federal Gas Tax Holiday: June 1, 2026 – October 1, 2026
A four-month federal gas tax suspension would cost the Highway Trust Fund roughly $11.5 billion in lost revenue, with consumers seeing only partial price relief.
The Impact of Higher Prevailing Wages on the H-1B Visa Lottery
DOL's proposed prevailing wage increase would nearly double the compensation effect of the new wage-weighted H-1B lottery, raising mean selected-registrant pay by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery.
Blog
Projected Two-Month Cost of Operation Epic Fury
PWBM estimates Operation Epic Fury has cost $27–28 billion in the first 32 days, with projected two-month direct costs of $38–47 billion if fighting continues to the end of April, with another $5 billion in indirect costs.
Blog Tax Policy
Gas Tax Holidays: Price and Revenue Effects by State
Projected per-gallon price drops and two-month revenue losses if states suspend gasoline and diesel taxes.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated March 16, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. We estimate an effective tariff rate (ETR) of 10.3 percent through January 2026. We project that replacing the IEEPA tariffs with a new 10% global tariff rate lowers the ETR to 7.7 percent on a bias-corrected basis appropriate for short-term projections.
How Strategic Reclassification Can Undercut the New H-1B Lottery Design
We analyze how employers could exploit DHS' new H-1B lottery rules by reclassifying positions into closely related occupations with lower prevailing wages to increase their chance of selection. We find that 61 percent of registrations would achieve a higher wage level through reclassification, undoing 42 percent of the expected compensation increase.
