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The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We estimate an effective tariff rate (ETR) of 9.8 percent through December 2025. We project that replacing the IEEPA with a new 15% global tariff rate has only a small impact on the ETR, lowering it to 9.1 percent, on a consistent concept basis.
We project that reversing the IEEPA tariffs will generate up to $175 billion in refunds. Unless replaced by another source, future tariff revenue collections will fall by half.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through November 2025.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through October 2025.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through September 2025.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through August 2025.
We project that corporate tax revenue will decrease by $276 billion over 10 years on a conventional basis due to changes in international tax provisions related to the Section 250 deduction under OBBBA.
The OECD expects countries to implement components of Pillar Two, its framework for a global minimum tax, starting in 2024. This paper provides policymakers with a comprehensive resource for navigating the Pillar Two framework. We review key components of Pillar Two and related aspects of US tax policy, including: (i) how the global minimum tax is likely to expose portions of the current US corporate tax base to new foreign taxes; (ii) potential modifications to US tax law that would increase compliance and protect US tax rights; and, (iii) the extent to which Pillar Two is likely to succeed in its policy objectives of reducing corporate profit shifting and international tax competition. The US is likely to cede tax rights to foreign jurisdictions if it does not enact new tax law. Pillar Two will likely reshape the nature of tax competition between countries, incentivizing greater use of subsidies and refundable tax credits to counteract higher statutory rates.
