Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated June 16, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of April 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 7.0 percent.
Social Security Outlook, June 2026
PWBM projects that Social Security's combined trust fund depletes in February 2035 with a 75-year shortfall of 4.65 percent of taxable payroll, close to the 2026 Trustees Report despite offsetting differences in fertility and mortality projections.
When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? Spring 2026 - Onward
We estimate that the United States federal debt cannot rationally exceed roughly 210 percent of GDP as an outer limit. Under historical excess cost growth in healthcare, this outer limit is likely reached within 20 years; there is a 25% chance of reaching it in 14 years. Debt markets unravel earlier if beliefs about government repayment shift.
The Demographic, Economic, and Conventional Budget Outlook, 2026-2056 (May 2026)
PWBM projects the U.S. resident population will grow from 343.5 million in 2026 to 371.5 million in 2056, with net immigration accounting for more than 100 percent of this growth. Real GDP growth slows from 2.2 percent to 1.1 percent as growing mandatory spending is matched with shrinking working-age labor force participation.
The Experience Benchmarking Alternative to the 2026 H-1B Prevailing Wage Rule
DOL's proposed experience benchmarking alternative would raise mean H-1B compensation by $27,686 (+24.7%) over the random lottery — $7,076 above the NPRM primary rule — while excluding 56 percent of current registrations and shifting selections toward younger workers.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated May 12, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. We estimate an effective tariff rate of 7.1 percent as of March 2026, the first full month after the IEEPA tariffs were replaced by a global 10 percent tariff implemented under Section 122.
Blog Tax Policy
Federal Gas Tax Holiday: June 1, 2026 – October 1, 2026
A four-month federal gas tax suspension would cost the Highway Trust Fund roughly $11.5 billion in lost revenue, with consumers seeing only partial price relief.
The Impact of Higher Prevailing Wages on the H-1B Visa Lottery
DOL's proposed prevailing wage increase would nearly double the compensation effect of the new wage-weighted H-1B lottery, raising mean selected-registrant pay by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery.
Blog
Projected Two-Month Cost of Operation Epic Fury
PWBM estimates Operation Epic Fury has cost $27–28 billion in the first 32 days, with projected two-month direct costs of $38–47 billion if fighting continues to the end of April, with another $5 billion in indirect costs.
How Federal Spending is Distributed by Age
American retirees receive over twice as much in total federal outlays as working-age adults and six times more than children and young adults. These ratios are even larger on a per-capita basis. Expenditures on retirees are projected to rise even more.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated June 16, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of April 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 7.0 percent.
The Impact of Higher Prevailing Wages on the H-1B Visa Lottery
DOL's proposed prevailing wage increase would nearly double the compensation effect of the new wage-weighted H-1B lottery, raising mean selected-registrant pay by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery.
How Federal Spending is Distributed by Age
American retirees receive over twice as much in total federal outlays as working-age adults and six times more than children and young adults. These ratios are even larger on a per-capita basis. Expenditures on retirees are projected to rise even more.
Social Security Reform with Dynamics
We project that Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will deplete in six years (2032). We consider five different reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts. Traditional policy analysis that dominates federal policymaking often provides very different — even opposite — insights compared to more comprehensive modeling.
The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts.
Social Security Outlook, June 2026
PWBM projects that Social Security's combined trust fund depletes in February 2035 with a 75-year shortfall of 4.65 percent of taxable payroll, close to the 2026 Trustees Report despite offsetting differences in fertility and mortality projections.
When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? Spring 2026 - Onward
We estimate that the United States federal debt cannot rationally exceed roughly 210 percent of GDP as an outer limit. Under historical excess cost growth in healthcare, this outer limit is likely reached within 20 years; there is a 25% chance of reaching it in 14 years. Debt markets unravel earlier if beliefs about government repayment shift.
The Demographic, Economic, and Conventional Budget Outlook, 2026-2056 (May 2026)
PWBM projects the U.S. resident population will grow from 343.5 million in 2026 to 371.5 million in 2056, with net immigration accounting for more than 100 percent of this growth. Real GDP growth slows from 2.2 percent to 1.1 percent as growing mandatory spending is matched with shrinking working-age labor force participation.
The Experience Benchmarking Alternative to the 2026 H-1B Prevailing Wage Rule
DOL's proposed experience benchmarking alternative would raise mean H-1B compensation by $27,686 (+24.7%) over the random lottery — $7,076 above the NPRM primary rule — while excluding 56 percent of current registrations and shifting selections toward younger workers.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated May 12, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. We estimate an effective tariff rate of 7.1 percent as of March 2026, the first full month after the IEEPA tariffs were replaced by a global 10 percent tariff implemented under Section 122.
