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Latest Research

Why Using General Revenue Transfers to Prevent Social Security Benefit Cuts Would Score at $0

Without policy changes, PWBM projects that Social Security benefits will fall to 85 percent of their scheduled levels in February 2035. PWBM projects that borrowing to cover the shortfall, including interest, would reach 202 percent of GDP by 2100. Federal budget rules, however, require CBO's baseline to assume that scheduled benefits are paid in full. As a result, a policy providing general revenue transfers to cover the shortfall would score at $0.

When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? Spring 2026 - Onward

We estimate that the United States federal debt cannot rationally exceed roughly 210 percent of GDP as an outer limit. Under historical excess cost growth in healthcare, this outer limit is likely reached within 20 years; there is a 25% chance of reaching it in 14 years. Debt markets unravel earlier if beliefs about government repayment shift.

When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? Spring 2026 - Onward