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The Build It in America Act: Budgetary and Macroeconomic Effects of Title I

PWBM estimates that Title I of the Build It in America Act would add $76 billion to the budget deficit over the next decade and reduce deficits by $18 billion during the subsequent second decade. It would temporarily boost business investment and GDP during the next two years while lowering GDP in subsequent years. If lawmakers made the extensions permanent, the budgetary cost would rise to $1.25 trillion over the next two decades and GDP would largely remain unchanged, as the tax incentive effects and debt effects mostly offset.

The Build It in America Act: Budgetary and Macroeconomic Effects of Title I

The Tax Cuts for Working Families Act: Estimated Budgetary and Distributional Effects

PWBM estimates the Tax Cuts for Working Families Act would reduce federal revenues by $96 billion over a decade, cutting taxes for a majority of households in 2024. Households in the bottom quintile households, and those in the top 1 percent, generally would not benefit. As an illustration, we also consider making the provisions permanent, which raises the estimated ten-year budget cost to be between $419 billion and $527 billion.

The Tax Cuts for Working Families Act: Estimated Budgetary and Distributional Effects

The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023: Budget Cost Estimates of the Debt Ceiling Agreement

We estimate the Fiscal Responsibility Act (“FRA”) of 2023 will reduce noninterest spending by $1.3 trillion over the 10-year budget window using standard scoring assumptions. If discretionary spending in Fiscal Year 2026, after sequestration is no longer in effect, deviates from standard scoring assumptions, the spending reduction could be as low as $234 billion or as high as $1.8 trillion.

The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023: Budget Cost Estimates of the Debt Ceiling Agreement

The Long-Term Budget Effects of Permanently Extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s Expiring Provisions

Several revenue and spending provisions in The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire (“sunset”) by the end of 2025. We estimate that “extenders” (“no sunset”) would increase the federal debt held by the public from 226.0 percent of GDP to 261.1 percent of GDP by 2050.

The Long-Term Budget Effects of Permanently Extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s Expiring Provisions

President Biden’s Proposal to Extend the Medicare Trust Fund

PWBM estimates that President Biden’s new Medicare proposal would increase the solvency of the Medicare trust fund from the year 2028 to 2053. However, a significant share of that increase comes from redirecting existing (current law) revenue to the trust fund. Another portion comes from unspecific expenditure reductions that lack the details required to score. Counting only new income without unspecified expenditure reductions, we project, as an illustrative alternative, that the HI trust fund would remain solvent until 2037.

President Biden’s Proposal to Extend the Medicare Trust Fund

Budgetary Cost of Newly Proposed Income-Driven Repayment Plan

We estimate President Biden’s newly proposed Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) Plan will cost between $333 to $361 billion over the 10-year budget window, more than twice as much as the cost estimate released by the Biden Administration. These costs are in addition to the one-time cost of direct loan forgiveness that we previously estimated at $469 billion .

Budgetary Cost of Newly Proposed Income-Driven Repayment Plan