Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated September 10, 2025)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025.
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The Cost of the Employee Retention Tax Credit
PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. Most of the ERC was paid retroactively, well after pandemic-related economic disruptions had ended, limiting its effectiveness as a worker retention incentive.
The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated through June 2025)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025.
Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects
It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP due to scale effects. We project that deportation also reduces wages of high-skill workers, compromising 63% of workers. Still, authorized low-skilled workers can see their wages increase but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years. Even with new funds provided in the 2025 OBBBA, we estimate that permanent deportation would cost an additional $900 billion over the first 10 years.
Import Surges and Tariff Avoidance: The Short-Term Impact of the Trump Administration’s Trade Policies
We estimate that importers avoided 13.1 percent ($6.5 billion) of new tariffs by accelerating purchases and changing their purchasing patterns in response to the new tariff regime. Importers especially stockpiled pharmaceuticals and precious metals during 2025 Q1.
President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects
We estimate the reconciliation bill signed by President Trump increases primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.6 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 percent in 10 years and 4.6 percent in 30 years.
Senate-Passed Reconciliation Bill Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
The Impact of President Trump’s Deportation Policies: The Social Security Program
Deporting unauthorized workers over 10 years cuts Social Security revenue, raises deficits by $133 billion (10 yrs) and $884 billion (30 yrs). The Trust Fund depletes 6 months earlier; 75-year deficit rises by 0.25% of payroll.
The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects with Permanence
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
