Senate-Passed Reconciliation Bill (OBBBA) Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
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The Impact of President Trump’s Deportation Policies: The Social Security Program
Deporting unauthorized workers over 10 years cuts Social Security revenue, raises deficits by $133 billion (10 yrs) and $884 billion (30 yrs). The Trust Fund depletes 6 months earlier; 75-year deficit rises by 0.25% of payroll.
The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill (OBBBA): Illustrative Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects with Permanence
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
Debt, Tariffs, and Capital Markets in a Dynamic Setting: An Explainer
We examine recent capital market dynamics in the context of budget reconciliation and trade policies. Understanding these dynamics requires modeling the interaction between microeconomic behavior and macroeconomic outcomes—an approach particularly well suited for the overlapping-generations lifecycle model.
The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill (OBBBA): Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
House Reconciliation Bill (OBBBA): Illustrative Calculations with Permanence (May 20, 2025)
If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1 percent in 10 years and 24.3 percent in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window.
House Reconciliation Bill (OBBBA): Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects (May 19, 2025)
We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net.
Budget Reconciliation (OBBBA) Options with Permanent Business Tax Extenders
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
Raising Top Ordinary Rates: Options under TCJA Extension (Updated)
Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with higher rates for high-income households. We consider three options.
Tax Collections Remain Strong in 2025 Despite IRS Concerns
Treasury data through April 28 shows that tax receipts are broadly in line with government projections made earlier this year, before the downsizing of the IRS was announced. Receipts from tariffs have significantly exceeded projections.
