A package of 13 major tax and spending reforms, based on standard public economics design principles, is shown to reduce federal debt, increase social insurance, and expand the economy more than any previously analyzed policies by PWBM.
President Biden recently proposed that Medicare and Medicaid cover obesity medications starting in 2026. PWBM estimates a 10-year cost of $140 billion.
The COVID-19 spike in mortality is the pandemic’s most direct demographic consequence, but not the only one. Factoring in changes in fertility, disruptions to immigration, and indirect demographic spillovers, we estimate that the pandemic reduced the U.S. population 0.5 percent over the long term.
We analyze new data from the US Treasury to examine historical revenue effects of TCJA’s international corporate tax provisions. We also provide updated conventional estimates to assess the revenue impact of scheduled 2026 rate increases on foreign income of US corporations and assess several proposals that aim to further increase tax revenue.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to U.S. immigration. Policymakers imposed travel restrictions, stopped visa processing, and made significant changes at the border. The pandemic and policy response led to more employment-based immigration and increased illegal border crossings instead of reducing them.
We explain how the PWBM uses its dynamic Overlapping Generation (OLG) model to analyze tax policies affecting foreign-earned income by affiliates of U.S.-domiciled firms. We evaluate two illustrative policy changes: we show how firms’ tax liabilities and the allocation of capital between domestic and international production are affected by an increase in foreign tax rates and a decrease in U.S. tax exemptions on foreign-derived income.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in births in 2020 followed by a rebound in 2021. We present new estimates of “excess” births during the pandemic, which show that on net over the two-year period, births were roughly in line with pre-pandemic trends.
We examine two major investment tax incentives for the computer sector. The impact on computer-sector investment as well as economy-wide investment is very small, even when the computer sector is modeled as a production complement.
After Ireland ended the Double Irish tax planning strategy in 2020, US firms with historical links to Ireland have shifted their intellectual property (IP) away from traditional tax havens to Ireland and the US to take advantage of tax incentives offered by both countries. This has coincided with a significant increase in Irish corporate tax revenue, particularly for less capital-intensive firms. Repatriation of foreign earnings to the United States has also increased, but fiscal benefits to the US have been offset by tax incentives passed under TCJA.
Improvements in U.S. life expectancy stalled in the 2010s, years before the COVID-19 pandemic produced a spike in mortality. We present new estimates of historical patterns in mortality by socio-demographic group and projections of U.S. mortality through 2060.
