Brendan Novak is a researcher and policy analyst interested in the intersection of data science, economics, and public policy. At PWBM he serves as a model developer and policy analyst focused on tax microsimulation, data generation, and distributional analysis of U.S. fiscal policy. His policy analysis spans many subject areas related to taxation and fiscal policy, including the individual income tax, the estate tax, tax expenditures, and social welfare programs. He leads development of the household module within PWBM’s integrated tax simulator, driving architectural improvements and expanding modeling capabilities to support real-time analysis of complex policy proposals. His analysis informs major legislative debates and budget packages and has been cited by policymakers and featured in leading media outlets. Prior to joining PWBM, he worked in state government and as Associate Director of the Center for Social Innovation at the University of Virginia. He holds a B.A. in Economics and a Master of Public Policy from the University of Virginia.
Two Senate proposals widen the zero tax bracket — Senator Booker's KYPA through a doubled standard deduction (costing $5.1 trillion) and Senator Van Hollen's WATCA through an alternative maximum tax (costing $1.4 trillion) — illustrating how mechanism determines cost, targeting, and distortions.
Senator Van Hollen's Working Americans' Tax Cut Act would pair a new alternative maximum tax for low- and middle-income filers with a graduated millionaire surtax, increasing federal revenue by $264 billion over a decade, not including economic feedback effects.
We estimate that the Keep Your Pay Act proposed by Senator Cory Booker would reduce federal revenues by up to $6.4 trillion over a decade. Households earning $100,000–$200,000 receive the largest tax cuts. Separately, on social media, Senator Booker proposed a top-rate increase that we estimate would offset about $1.4 trillion.
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with higher rates for high-income households. We consider three options.
Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits reduces incentives to save and work while increasing federal debt. Wages and GDP fall over time. The policy primarily benefits high-income households nearing or in retirement while harming households under thirty and all future generations across the entire income distribution.
The deduction for pass-through income under section 199A provides a benefit in excess of 20 percent (“excess benefit”) for some taxpayers due to its interaction with the progressive tax rate system. As Congress considers extending 199A beyond 2025, options to remove the excess benefit while maintaining the 20 percent tax benefit could raise between $46B and $178B over the 10-year budget window, depending on design.
For more election analysis, check out our Election 2024 page .
For more election analysis, check out our Election 2024 page .
We analyze a new illustrative policy to create automatic retirement savings accounts for more than 56 million low-income Americans by 2030. The program is fully financed by removing the gross income adjustment for traditional 401k and similar retirement accounts without any additional contribution from households or employers. The program relies on the existing EITC administration without employer participation. After accounting for risk, individual account balances reach over $200,000 by retirement and any balances can be bequeathed upon death.
