Projected Effects of the New (March 2026) H-1B Visa Lottery
We project that the new DHS H-1B selection rule, going into effect in March 2026, will shift the H-1B visa allocation toward higher-paid and higher-education foreign-born workers, but by less than alternative designs being debated. Based on data from the current random lottery in the last five years, we estimate that the new DHS rule will have no significant impact on wages of U.S.-born workers, including non-college, college-educated, and STEM workers. Any reduction in competition from fewer STEM H-1Bs is offset by a reduction in productivity growth.
