Daniela Viana Costa

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Total Cost of Universal Pre-K, Including New Facilities

We estimate that each new preschooler for a universal pre-K program requires about $21,000 in new construction costs for facilities expansion. Including non-construction costs, a universal pre-K program for three- and four-year-olds will cost about $351 billion over the 10-year budget window. If made permanent after 10 years, this program will have essentially no impact on long-run GDP. A pre-K program for just four-year-olds reduces the 10-year cost to $196 billion and slightly increases long-run GDP, if that program is made permanent.

Total Cost of Universal Pre-K, Including New Facilities

COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Using recently available data on learning loss from pandemic school closures, PWBM estimates that projected 2051 GDP is 1.4 percent lower than it would have been without the learning loss. Extending the 2021-22 school year for all public schools by one month would cost $78 billion and limit the reduction in 2051 GDP to 1.0 percent—a net present value gain in GDP of more than $1 trillion over the next three decades, equal to a $15.14 return for each $1 invested.

COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Effects of President Biden’s Unauthorized Immigrant Legalization Proposal on SNAP and Payroll Tax

PWBM projects that the legalization provisions of the U.S. Citizenship Act proposed by President Biden would increase per capita spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by 1.2 percent in 2031 and 0.7 percent 2050 relative to the current policy baseline. Per capita payroll taxes would increase by 1.3 and 0.2 percent relative to the current policy baseline, in 2031 and 2050 respectively.

Effects of President Biden’s Unauthorized Immigrant Legalization Proposal on SNAP and Payroll Tax

COVID-19 School Closures: Long-run Macroeconomic effects

PWBM estimates that the learning loss from school closures reduced GDP by 3.6 percent in 2050. Extending the 2021-22 school year by one month would cost about $75 billion nationally but would limit the reduction in GDP to 3.1 percent. This smaller reduction in GDP produces a net present value gain of $1.2 trillion over the next three decades, equal to about a $16 return for each $1 invested in extending the 2021-22 school year.

COVID-19 School Closures: Long-run Macroeconomic effects

Demographic and Economic Effects of President Biden's Proposal to Legalize Immigrants

PWBM projects that by 2050, the legalization provisions of the U.S. Citizenship Act proposed by President Biden would increase the size of the U.S. population by 4.21 percent, increase GDP by 0.5 percent, but decrease GDP per capita by 0.2 percent. More specific legalization proposals targeted at farm workers, DACA recipients, and essential workers would each increase GDP per capita by 0.1 percent in 2050.

Demographic and Economic Effects of President Biden's Proposal to Legalize Immigrants

Direct Aid in the Biden COVID Relief Plan: Budgetary and Distributional Effects

PWBM estimates that three provisions in the Biden COVID relief plan—direct payments, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit—together would cost $595 billion in calendar year 2021, with 99 percent of households in the bottom 80 percent of incomes receiving a benefit.

Direct Aid in the Biden COVID Relief Plan: Budgetary and Distributional Effects

Macroeconomic Effects of the $1.9 Trillion Biden COVID Relief Plan

PWBM estimates that the $1.9 trillion in spending in the full Biden relief plan would increase GDP in 2021 by 0.6 percent. Over time, the additional public debt resulting from the Biden plan would decrease GDP by 0.2 percent in 2022 and 0.3 percent in 2040.

Macroeconomic Effects of the $1.9 Trillion Biden COVID Relief Plan

PWBM Budget Contest: TEACHUP Early Childhood Education Grants

The TEACHUP program, proposed by Rick Miller, Ph.D. as part of the PWBM Democratizing the Budget Contest, would give grants to states in order to provide full-day preschool for four-year-old children at or below 200 percent of the poverty line. On a conventional basis, PWBM projects that TEACHUP would cost $92.4 billion over ten years and a total of $282.53 billion by 2050. However, on a dynamic basis that includes productivity effects and expansion of the tax base, PWBM estimates that the program would effectively pay for itself by 2050 by holding public debt nearly constant.

PWBM Budget Contest: TEACHUP Early Childhood Education Grants