Federal outlays include spending on defense, other discretionary programs such as infrastructure, and mandatory programs such a Social Security and Medicare.
We begin from historical federal outlays as measured by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). This spending evolves in accordance with PWBM demographic and macroeconomic projections.
We derive the distribution of mandatory outlays across households from surveys such as the Current Population Survey (CPS), Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) and Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Using this data, we estimate receipt of federal mandatory spending by age and gender. Projections of spending shares evolve according to projected household demographics. In the future, we will use program specific data sets to add greater richness of detail to our modeling of changes to programs, such as Social Security and Medicare.
Mandatory Spending Programs:
- Child nutrition (WIC)
- Children’s Health Insurance Program
- Civilian retirement
- Deposit insurance
- Earned Income, child and other tax credits
- Family support and foster care (eg. TANF)
- FANNIE MAE & FREDDIE MAC
- Higher education
- Marketplace insurance subsidies and related
- Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund (MERHCF)
- Military retirement
- Other retirement
- Social Security
- Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
- Supplemental Security Income
- Unemployment compensation
- Veteran’s Income Security
- Veteran’s other
- Other mandatory programs