PWBM Faculty Director Kent Smetters and Senior Analysts Alex Arnon and John Ricco will present PWBM's integrated economics-epidemiological-geographic structural model for a company-wide talk series at Alphabet.

Our integrated economics-epidemiological-geographic structural model captures numerous interactions, including the “indirect” effect of how people are predicted to change their social distancing practices as other people get vaccinated. In contrast, current economics-only models assume that the “output gap” today is similar to those in the past. Our model incorporates microlevel datasets at a fairly fine-grained geographic level to capture local social distancing practice, local industry, local demographics, local population concentration, and many other key local variables, which we can then aggregate up to also show national-level results. The model incorporates statistical methods to separate causality from correlation in the previous pandemic data.

This event is closed to the public.