Summary: PWBM projects that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic reduces the OASDI trust fund depletion date by four years, from 2036 to 2032, under the “U-shaped” recession projected by PWBM. If the recovery is faster (“V-shaped”), the trust depletion date falls by two years, from 2036 to 2034. The conventionally-measured OASDI 75-year actuarial balance worsens between 0.07 and 0.13 percent of future payroll.

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Analysis of Estimate

Table 1. OASDI Trust Fund Depletion Date Under Four Scenarios: Conventional Estimates

			Trust fund depletion year	75-year actuarial balance, 2020-2094 (%)
Pre-pandemic baselines:
	SSA		2035	-3.21
	PWBM		2036	-3.08
PWBM post-pandemic baselines:
	V-shaped pandemic		2034	-3.15
	U-shaped pandemic		2032	-3.21
		Mortality shock only	2036	-3.07
		U-shaped employment shock only*	2035	-3.09
		U-shaped inflation shock only	2035	-3.08
		U-shaped interest shock only	2034	-3.23

* Includes reductions to AWI factor, as discussed in text.

Figure 1. Social Security’s Annual Non-Interest Income Balance as a Share of Taxable Payroll under each scenario

    ,SSA: pre-pandemic,PWBM: pre-pandemic,PWBM: V-shaped pandemic,PWBM: U-shaped pandemic
    2019,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01
    2020,-0.009,-0.009,-0.028,-0.036
    2021,-0.012,-0.011,-0.013,-0.036
    2022,-0.013,-0.014,-0.016,-0.03
    2023,-0.015,-0.016,-0.018,-0.02
    2024,-0.017,-0.019,-0.02,-0.022
    2025,-0.019,-0.022,-0.022,-0.024
    2026,-0.02,-0.024,-0.023,-0.024
    2027,-0.022,-0.026,-0.024,-0.025
    2028,-0.024,-0.027,-0.026,-0.026
    2029,-0.026,-0.029,-0.027,-0.027
    2030,-0.028,-0.029,-0.027,-0.026
    2031,-0.029,-0.031,-0.029,-0.028
    2032,-0.031,-0.031,-0.029,-0.027
    2033,-0.032,-0.033,-0.031,-0.029
    2034,-0.033,-0.034,-0.033,-0.03
    2035,-0.033,-0.034,-0.033,-0.03
    2036,-0.034,-0.035,-0.034,-0.031
    2037,-0.034,-0.035,-0.034,-0.031
    2038,-0.035,-0.037,-0.035,-0.033
    2039,-0.035,-0.036,-0.034,-0.032
    2040,-0.035,-0.035,-0.034,-0.032
    2041,-0.035,-0.037,-0.036,-0.033
    2042,-0.035,-0.036,-0.035,-0.033
    2043,-0.035,-0.036,-0.035,-0.032
    2044,-0.035,-0.036,-0.035,-0.033
    2045,-0.035,-0.037,-0.036,-0.034
    2046,-0.035,-0.036,-0.036,-0.034
    2047,-0.035,-0.035,-0.035,-0.033
    2048,-0.035,-0.035,-0.034,-0.033
    2049,-0.035,-0.036,-0.035,-0.034
    2050,-0.035,-0.036,-0.035,-0.034
    2051,-0.035,-0.036,-0.036,-0.035
    2052,-0.035,-0.037,-0.037,-0.036
    2053,-0.035,-0.037,-0.036,-0.036
    2054,-0.035,-0.037,-0.036,-0.036
    2055,-0.036,-0.037,-0.036,-0.036
    2056,-0.036,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2057,-0.036,-0.036,-0.036,-0.035
    2058,-0.037,-0.036,-0.036,-0.036
    2059,-0.037,-0.035,-0.035,-0.035
    2060,-0.038,-0.036,-0.035,-0.035
    2061,-0.038,-0.036,-0.036,-0.035
    2062,-0.039,-0.036,-0.036,-0.036
    2063,-0.04,-0.037,-0.036,-0.036
    2064,-0.04,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2065,-0.041,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2066,-0.041,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2067,-0.042,-0.037,-0.037,-0.036
    2068,-0.043,-0.037,-0.037,-0.036
    2069,-0.043,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2070,-0.044,-0.039,-0.039,-0.039
    2071,-0.045,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2072,-0.045,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2073,-0.046,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2074,-0.046,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2075,-0.047,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04
    2076,-0.047,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2077,-0.047,-0.037,-0.037,-0.037
    2078,-0.047,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2079,-0.047,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2080,-0.047,-0.038,-0.038,-0.038
    2081,-0.047,-0.039,-0.039,-0.039
    2082,-0.047,-0.039,-0.039,-0.039
    2083,-0.046,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04
    2084,-0.046,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04
    2085,-0.046,-0.041,-0.041,-0.041
    2086,-0.045,-0.042,-0.042,-0.042
    2087,-0.045,-0.043,-0.043,-0.043
    2088,-0.045,-0.043,-0.043,-0.043
    2089,-0.045,-0.045,-0.045,-0.045
    2090,-0.045,-0.045,-0.045,-0.045
    2091,-0.045,-0.046,-0.046,-0.046
    2092,-0.045,-0.047,-0.047,-0.047
    2093,-0.045,-0.048,-0.048,-0.048
    2094,-0.045,-0.049,-0.049,-0.049
    2095,-0.046,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05

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