Summary: The PWBM Economic Outlook projects that the pace of economic growth this year remains closely tied to the spread of the virus, evolution of variants, and distribution of vaccines, as reflected in our estimates for the year 2021 and part of 2022. Over time, we project that economic growth will stabilize to its pre-pandemic level with demographic changes playing a larger role.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product | |||||||||
| Real | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | |
| Nominal | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | |
| Contribution from | |||||||||
| Capital Services | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | |||
| Labor | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | |||
| Total Factor Productivity | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |||
| Debt-to-GDP Ratio | 99% | 107% | 108% | 109% | 110% | 117% | 150% | 196% | |
| Indices | |||||||||
| GDP Price Index | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | |
| Employment Cost Index | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | |