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Brief, Tax Policy, Economic Growth
Penn Wharton Budget Model
Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Wealth Tax: ...

  • Senator Elizabeth Warren has proposed a wealth tax equal to 2 percent of net worth above $50 million and 6 percent of net worth above $1 billion, which her campaign estimates would raise $3.75 trillion over 10 years.

  • PWBM estimates that the proposal would raise about $2.7 trillion over fiscal years 2021-2030, not including macroeconomic effects. Including macroeconomic effects, PWBM estimates that the proposal would raise about $2.3 trillion over the same period.

  • PWBM projects that the proposal would reduce GDP by 0.9 percent in 2050 under the standard budget scoring convention that additional revenues reduce the deficit. If the revenues were instead spent on public investments, PWBM projects GDP in 2050 would fall between 1.0 and 2.1 percent, depending on the productivity of the investment. Average hourly wages in the economy in 2050, including wages earned by households not directly subject to the wealth tax, would fall between 0.8 and 2.3 percent due to the reduction in private capital formation.

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Wealth Tax: Budgetary and Economic Effects
Blog Post, Tax Policy
Penn Wharton Budget Model
The Revenue-Maximizing Capital Gains Tax Rate: ...

Under current law, PWBM estimates that a 33% capital gains tax rate maximizes revenue, but this rate increases to 42% if stepped-up cost basis at death were eliminated.

Blog Post, Tax Policy, Economic Growth
Penn Wharton Budget Model
Policy Options: Increase Tax Rates on Capital ...

We estimate the budgetary and economic effects of increasing the top rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends from 20 percent to 24.2 percent, which is enacted on January 1st, 2021. We project that it will raise around $60 billion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increase GDP by 0.1 percent by 2050.

Blog Post, Tax Policy, Economic Growth
Penn Wharton Budget Model
Policy Options: A 1% Value-Added Tax

We estimate the budgetary and economic effects of a new broad-based 1 percent value-added tax (VAT) with a progressive universal rebate calculated based on earnings, which is enacted on January 1st, 2021. We project that it will raise $700 billion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increase GDP by 0.8 percent by 2050.

Blog Post, Tax Policy, Economic Growth
Penn Wharton Budget Model
Policy Options: A Carbon Tax of $30 per ton

We estimate the budgetary and economic effects of a new carbon tax of $30 per ton of emissions, which is enacted on January 1st, 2021, rising by inflation plus 5 percent through 2050. We project that it raises $1.6 trillion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increases GDP by 2.2 percent by 2050.

Interactive

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Interactive Tool: Options to Reduce the National Debt

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This interactive page presents estimated budgetary, economic, and distributional effects for a wide array of policies and policy packages that would reduce the federal debt.

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Map: Income Underreporting by State

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We estimate a state-level decomposition of income underreporting in the US to be over $1.3 trillion for tax year 2018. We present these numbers separately by income type (wages and salaries, partnerships and S-corps, capital gains and dividends, interest, schedule C, and other). Most (69 percent) of underreported income is underreported Schedule C (sole proprietorship) income.

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Interactive Map: New Data on 2020 CARES Act Stimulus Checks

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This post presents new state-level data on the $271.4 billion of stimulus checks in the CARES Act as of March 2020, breaking down the 161.9 million payments by amount, method of receipt, and recipient household type.

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Penn Wharton Budget Model COVID-19 Tracker

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The Penn Wharton Budget Model COVID-19 Tracker provides daily, real-time estimates of economic activity and of the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic at the state level.

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Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator: Health and Economic Effects of State Reopenings

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Using an integrated, interdisciplinary modeling approach, this simulator forecasts the state-level health and economic effects of reopening businesses and relaxing stay-at-home orders. This simulator will be updated regularly as new data arrive.

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Recession Simulator

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This simulation tool uses the experience of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 as a template to simulate key economic indicators during a recession beginning in March, 2020.

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Comparing Progressive Tax Proposals

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PWBM’s new interactive tax policy tool allows users to explore different ways of raising taxes on high-income households—a common theme in the policy platforms of several of the 2020 presidential candidates. Users can build their own tax and spending plan from among 18 specific policy options—with 575 possible combinations—to see the total budgetary and economic consequences of their selected policies.

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Health Insurance Policy: 2020 Presidential Election State Indicator Map

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PWBM’s interactive state-level map shows insurance indicators for each state that relate to health care policy. These data-based indicators can inform debates about 2020 Presidential campaign proposals for changes to health care policy. We show insurance rates for those who are unemployed, not in the workforce, employed, retirees and children. We also examine the cost of health care premiums, per enrollee spending on Medicare, state health care spending, infant mortality and life expectancy. These indicators imply that the impact of any proposed changes to health insurance policy on a state will depend on labor market conditions and the age distribution of that state.

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Immigration Policy: 2020 Presidential Campaign State-Level Economic Indicator Map

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Use data to get information about the impact of campaign proposals on states. Examine six indicators focused on immigration policy for each state. See the percent of the population that is foreign-born, the percent of the foreign-born population with a bachelor’s or advanced degree compared with the percent of the native-born with a bachelor’s or advanced degree, the old-age dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and percent of the foreign-born population that is unauthorized for the U.S. and each state.

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