Summary: The effects of the U.S. House budget reconciliation package as of Thursday, May 15, on the distribution of after-tax-and-transfer income. (Note that these numbers are likely to change with additional amendments.)
| Income group | 2026 | 2030 | 2033 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower cutoff for income group | Average change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Percent change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Median percent change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Lower cutoff for income group | Average change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Percent change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Median percent change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Lower cutoff for income group | Average change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Percent change in after-tax-and-transfer income | Median percent change in after-tax-and-transfer income | |
| First quintile | 0 | -1,035 | -10.8% | -6.8% | 0 | -1,100 | -6.2% | -4.8% | 0 | -1,405 | -9.7% | -7.1% |
| Second quintile | 17,000 | -705 | -1.5% | -1.0% | 20,000 | -860 | -1.5% | -0.9% | 22,000 | -1,200 | -2.0% | -1.4% |
| Middle quintile | 51,000 | 845 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 58,000 | 200 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 63,000 | 45 | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Fourth quintile | 93,000 | 3,245 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 105,000 | 2,340 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 115,000 | 2,480 | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| 80-90% | 174,000 | 6,050 | 2.9% | 2.7% | 195,000 | 4,720 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 214,000 | 4,920 | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 90-95% | 263,000 | 8,835 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 296,000 | 8,105 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 324,000 | 8,845 | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 95-99% | 388,000 | 19,965 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 436,000 | 17,760 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 477,000 | 19,300 | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| 99-99.9% | 988,000 | 44,365 | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1,101,000 | 30,560 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1,205,000 | 36,125 | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Top 0.1% | 4,325,000 | 389,280 | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4,763,000 | 43,740 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 5,194,000 | 114,295 | 1.3% | 0.9% |
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model
