Summary: This table provides a conventional 10-year revenue forecast assuming that tariffs are maintained under the status quo as of June 10, 2025. This method contrasts with the score provided in our tariff simulator, which does not consider temporary pauses and exemptions.
| Year | Import Value | Static Tariff Revenue | Import Value After Demand Response | Tariff Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 to 2035 | 27,699 | 5,336 | 21,046 | 2,593 |
| 2026 | 2,530 | 487 | 2,223 | 294 |
| 2027 | 2,580 | 497 | 2,184 | 284 |
| 2028 | 2,632 | 507 | 2,146 | 274 |
| 2029 | 2,684 | 517 | 2,109 | 264 |
| 2030 | 2,738 | 527 | 2,074 | 255 |
| 2031 | 2,793 | 538 | 2,040 | 245 |
| 2032 | 2,849 | 549 | 2,007 | 237 |
| 2033 | 2,906 | 560 | 2,047 | 242 |
| 2034 | 2,964 | 571 | 2,088 | 246 |
| 2035 | 3,023 | 582 | 2,130 | 251 |
Notes: These estimates assume that tariffs in place as of June 10, 2025, including temporary pauses, persist for the period considered. Other modeling assumptions adhere to the documentation provided in PWBM’s tariff simulator.
Column Descriptions:
Import Value: Base value of imports before tariffs.
Static Tariff Revenue: Revenue assuming no behavioral response.
Import Value After Demand Response: Import value after accounting for demand changes.
Tariff Revenue: Final revenue estimate after demand response and income/payroll offset.
