Key Points
Implicit pay-as-you-go obligations have the same economic effects and fiscal tradeoffs as explicit debt obligations.
Treasury securities held by the public plus social insurance net obligations to current generations equal 4.9% of the present value of GDP projected over their lifetimes. These implicit obligations are twice the size of explicit Treasury debt.
A broader measure, including implicit debt over current and future generations, is 6.6% of the present value of future GDP. Restoring a long-term budget balance would require a 14.6% increase in federal taxes and an equal percentage cut in federal expenditure, or some similar combination.
Complete Measures of U.S. National Debt
Figure 1 shows past growth in debt and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) debt projections.
Source: Authors’ calculations are based on Congressional Budget Office “Budget and Economic Outlook” Reports—"year_month” as indicated in the figure legend.
Explicit federal debt results from past funding shortfalls under government policies. Annual deficits trigger borrowing from the public through Treasury securities. The government must use future receipts to pay interest and the principal. Each deficit year increases debt, requiring new securities to roll over maturing ones. Larger explicit debt means more future receipts devoted to debt service, reducing funds for public goods and services. The CBO reports explicit debt held by the public was $26.2 trillion at the end of 2023, rising to $28.2 trillion in 2024.
Implicit debt refers to projected shortfalls in receipts compared to non-interest expenditures under current policies. Unlike explicit debt, implicit debt is non-contractual but still a firm government obligation. Explicit debt can be eroded by inflation, except for about 7.8% issued as inflation-protected securities. Reducing implicit debt requires tax increases and expenditure cuts, as most program spending keeps pace with or exceeds inflation. Both types of debt require future federal resources for servicing. Larger explicit debt needs more tax increases and expenditure cuts, while larger implicit debt requires similar adjustments to current policies.
Figure 2 gives an example of implicit debt: Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) are funded by payroll taxes and income taxes on high-income individuals' Social Security benefits. These programs' expenditures are determined by eligibility policies and depend on factors like age structure, retirement decisions, and health. Revenues depend on employment and earnings in covered occupations.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Congressional Budget Office 10-year projections extended using the Penn Wharton Budget Model’s microsimulation.
Projections indicate a social insurance funding shortfall of nearly 1% of GDP today, growing to 2.6% by 2050 and 4.6% by 2099. The shortfall, including taxes and benefits for current and future individuals, equals $65.7 trillion for those alive today.
Focusing only on explicit debt is misleading due to significant underfunding of OASDHI programs. Adding explicit debt ($26.2 trillion) and implicit obligations ($65.7 trillion) brings total federal indebtedness to $91.9 trillion, or 340% of 2023 GDP. Extending tax and spending projections to cover all current and future generations, the infinite horizon fiscal imbalance is $162.7 trillion, or 6.6% of the present value of all future GDP.
Restoring fiscal balance will require reducing federal non-interest expenditures or increasing future federal receipts. This can be achieved in various ways, depending on the tax or expenditure bases targeted for adjustment. The broadest base is “taxes plus expenditures,” which involves an across-the-board immediate and permanent equal percentage reduction in non-interest expenditures and increase in receipts. The first row of Table 1 shows that this would require a 14.6% adjustment.
If the adjustment base is narrowed, the required percentage adjustment increases. Row 2 of Table 1 shows that targeting only taxes would require a 33.4% increase. Row 3 indicates that targeting all non-interest expenditures would require a 26.1% cut. Other policy adjustment variants show different combinations of tax and expenditure bases and their respective adjustment percentages.
The adjustment percentages shown in Table 1 are conventional estimates. They assume policy changes will not induce private economic reactions. For example, tax increases are assumed not to reduce labor supply, and reductions in Social Security or other transfers are assumed not to increase labor supply by individuals working longer hours or delaying retirement.
| Policy # | Policy Specification (immediate and permanent adjustments) | Adjustment Percentage(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Increase taxes and expenditures in equal percentage change * | 14.6 |
| 2 | Increase all federal taxes | 33.4 |
| 3 | Reduce all federal expenditures * | 26.1 |
| 4 | Reduce all federal transfer payments * | 32.7 |
| 5 | Adjust OASDHI and non-OASDHI programs relative to their FIs. | |
| Adjust OASDHI’s taxes and transfers in equal percentages and… | 17.3 | |
| …adjust non-OASDHI’s taxes and expenditures in equal percentage | 13.1 | |
| 6 | Adjust non-OASDHI’s taxes and expenditures in equal percentage | 23.0 |
| 7 | Adjust all taxes and transfers; maintain federal purchases * | 16.5 |
| 8 | Hold the elderly (age 60+) harmless under Policy #1 | 15.7 |
* Includes OASDI and Non-OASDI transfers.
Source: Reprinted from Table 3 in Gokhale and Smetters, Public Budgeting and Finance (forthcoming).
Dealing with federal indebtedness requires future resources, impacting the pocketbooks of current and future generations. To estimate this, we calculate baseline net tax payments for these generations under current policies.
Panel A of Figure 3 shows the present value of future net taxes for selected generations, labeled by age in 2024. For example, the Current Policy line shows that a 20-year-old in 2024 has an expected present value of future net taxes of $132,000. These calculations account for mortality rates and represent average actuarial amounts. Older generations are expected to receive net transfers (negative net lifetime taxes) over their remaining lifetimes.
Policy 1 (red lines and bars in Figure 3) involves increasing all federal taxes and reducing expenditures by 14.6%. Panel B shows the impact on individuals' pocketbooks in constant 2024 dollars. A 20-year-old would pay $426,000, which is $296,000 more than the $132,000 under the current policy baseline. This represents a more than three-fold increase in lifetime net taxes. For a 60-year-old, net benefits would be reduced by $174,000, a 39% cut from their current-policy prospective net benefits of $443,000.
Policy 2 (green lines and bars in Figure 3) targets only taxes. Under this policy, future net taxes for 20-year-olds increase to $489,000, compared to $426,000 under Policy 1. For 60-year-olds, future net benefits decline to $321,000, compared to $269,000 under Policy 1.
Policy 3 (blue lines and bars in Figure 3) targets only federal expenditure. Under this policy, 60-year-olds' remaining lifetime net benefits would decrease by $215,000, compared to $174,000 under Policy 1. For 20-year-olds, the adjustment burden would increase by $245,000, compared to $294,000 under Policy 1.
Panel A: Current Policy Baseline and Across-the-Board Adjustment to Lifetime Net Taxes by Age in 2024
Panel B: Present Value Changes in Prospective Net Taxes by Age in 2024 (Adjustment Policy minus Current Policy)
Excluding expenditure-side adjustments would necessitate substantial increases in the lifetime net taxes of young and future generations. For example, a 20-year-old’s lifetime net taxes would increase by $357,000 if only taxes were increased, compared to $294,000 under the across-the-board adjustment in taxes and benefits. Compared to the across-the-board policy, an exclusive benefit-side policy change would reduce the adjustment on a 20-year-old from $294,000 to $245,000.
The reason for these results is that including adjustments to benefits distributes some of the adjustment cost to retirees, expanding the population that bears the adjustment cost. In contrast, excluding expenditure changes concentrates the adjustment burden on younger and future generations.
Policies 4 through 8 of Table 1 concentrate the adjustment on a subset of federal programs and age groups, resulting in larger adjustment rates. Their effects per capita are distributed according to the age groups subject to the taxes and benefits targeted for adjustment (not shown).
Applying an immediate and permanent across-the-board adjustment to federal taxes and expenditures of 14.6% to eliminate the fiscal imbalance may be infeasible in the short term. An alternative is to calculate annual adjustments to constrain the debt-to-GDP ratio to a predetermined percentage. Figure 3 shows the time profile of conventional annual fiscal adjustment rates for equal percentage increases in all taxes and cuts to all non-interest expenditures to maintain the debt-to-GDP ratio at its current 100% of GDP.
Under this policy, the adjustment rate will be small in the next few years due to small federal primary deficits (non-interest expenditures minus receipts). The rates will increase over time and plateau slightly above the 14.6% "full across-the-board" adjustment rate (Policy 1 in Table 1). This occurs because the debt-stabilization policy prevents the accumulation of budget surpluses in the short term that would have occurred under Policy 1. The adjustment rate is small in 2025, increases rapidly over the next two decades, and plateaus at an average of 17.1% in the long term.
The adjustment-rate profile in Figure 4 should be viewed with caution. Significant and lasting changes to taxes and expenditures are likely to induce changes in economic behavior, affecting labor supply, saving, investment, capital, the rate of technological advances, and GDP growth. These changes will affect the long-term adjustment profile.
Figure 5 shows the distributional effects of the debt-stabilization policy compared to Policy 1 of Table 1. The gradual policy involves smaller adjustments to current retirees’ taxes and benefits, resulting in smaller adjustment costs for them since they receive substantial net benefits during their remaining lifetimes.
In contrast, younger and future generations would pay more in net taxes due to the higher final adjustment rate under the debt-stabilization policy. The distributional effects shown in Figure 4 should be considered rough approximations, as they assume no changes in future economic behavior by workers, savers, and investors.
Federal indebtedness extends beyond explicit debt reported in federal financial accounts. Under current fiscal laws and policies, the government must pay benefits to eligible individuals, but its receipts are projected to fall short of these obligations. A significant portion of federal (non-interest) payment obligations may be as strong or stronger than their obligation to service explicit debt. This generates implicit debt that, when added to explicit debt, increases federal indebtedness severalfold.
Including unfunded Social Security and Medicare (Part A) obligations for those living today places federal indebtedness at $103.2 trillion, or 4.7% of the present value of GDP projected over the next 100 years. Including unfunded obligations to future generations makes the federal fiscal imbalance $162.7 trillion, or 6.6% of the present value of GDP calculated without a time limit.
Restoring fiscal balance requires an across-the-board tax increase and expenditure reduction of 14.6%. Concentrating on taxes alone would reduce the adjustment cost for older generations and increase it for younger and future ones. Concentrating on the adjustment on federal expenditures alone would shift the burden away from younger and future generations toward current older generations.
This analysis was produced by Jagadeesh Gokhale and the faculty director, Kent Smetters. Mariko Paulson prepared the brief for the website.
This Brief borrows heavily from
Gokhale, Jagadeesh and Kent Smetters, 2024. “United States federal indebtedness and fiscal policy trade-offs" in Public Budgeting & Finance, November. http://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12376
1997_1 1998_1 1999_1 2000_1 2001_1 2002_1 2003_1 2004_1 2005_1 2006_1 2007_1 2008_1 2009_1 2010_1 2011_1 2012_1 2013_2 2014_2 2015_1 2016_1 2017_1 2018_4 2019_1 2020_1 2021_2 2022_5 2023_2 2024_2 2025_1 Actual 1996 49.31307794 49.31307794 1997 49.12834765 46.66501671 46.66501671 1998 48.43542346 44.7937596 43.76985528 43.76985528 1999 48.08711685 43.16171467 41.03549627 39.33946941 39.33946941 2000 47.90590304 41.55519304 38.28142017 35.64795708 34.6967847 34.6967847 2001 47.61854805 39.78136387 35.25728003 32.4207209 30.50683206 32.70935961 32.70935961 2002 47.47596154 37.47760303 31.78232651 29.18944392 26.17647059 32.76781386 34.24591274 34.24591274 2003 47.39309289 35.37847849 28.5318824 26.05474749 21.86111353 31.31313131 35.01301599 36.14368824 36.14368824 2004 47.39440483 33.23065773 25.27372263 22.96431046 17.67144871 29.18830045 34.72455566 38.30325225 37.18514672 37.18514672 2005 47.60989251 31.18028534 22.05843873 19.86062718 13.54298357 27.02169625 33.62661304 39.45910181 38.13455408 37.35459204 37.35459204 2006 47.81518924 28.92173052 18.66032699 16.52236079 9.420890127 24.8144966 32.14910189 39.85964359 38.5707635 37.64714875 36.96237275 36.96237275 2007 48.01885285 26.69504888 15.30172414 13.08944326 8.096468562 22.47549748 30.41544145 40.32940465 38.61327837 37.76213627 36.60426694 36.83465795 36.83465795 2008 24.54066265 12.02536481 9.683995923 7.107189274 20.04800226 28.50701403 40.61462992 38.40078283 37.75158533 35.69436818 36.84217221 40.79547955 40.79547955 2009 8.810637054 7.074223646 6.122049811 17.4867423 26.46818923 40.71905779 38.03313594 37.5524109 34.8485311 36.74798486 50.45125232 52.99343903 52.99343903 2010 6.263312034 5.450369359 14.84295199 24.32816537 40.7256206 37.56425716 37.24486611 34.17622029 36.52604632 54.17060909 60.27457404 62.13512869 62.13512869 2011 4.833943978 11.53682677 21.54461538 40.070609 36.44961804 36.33110687 32.81522615 35.43562798 54.42361083 65.27167749 69.37507247 67.72713215 67.72713215 2012 7.352431558 17.99800153 38.57022099 34.53174833 34.6039717 30.46605051 33.32819426 52.80674973 66.61790359 73.9029426 72.49117316 72.54497483 72.54497483 2013 14.36894292 37.0441015 32.64717306 32.94194746 28.31717319 31.59430898 49.99429805 66.29809361 75.52224918 75.06187735 76.26965367 72.06351116 72.06351116 2014 35.41228556 30.72346754 31.27974478 26.17539141 29.76915571 48.55809371 65.63767962 75.30319529 74.81705613 77.71631652 73.62357436 74.07756751 74.07756751 2015 28.79096275 29.61478736 24.04607663 27.95399883 47.31507686 65.44423548 74.88332069 72.55635278 76.34858443 73.17113539 74.1541009 73.64963504 73.64963504 2016 28.06276693 22.13428416 26.3596434 46.43622152 65.51755333 75.01053801 70.51031089 74.63478843 72.63532987 73.83809021 75.5812696 76.98933875 76.98933875 2017 20.07111061 24.59030144 45.45331971 65.54861201 75.19492119 68.54439441 73.36050825 72.34689807 73.42776775 75.72679691 77.45155361 76.46837987 76.46837987 2018 22.58884789 42.65321578 65.68721538 75.31252093 66.79823675 73.13229671 72.62575165 73.29481026 75.73905699 77.3657654 78.03662668 77.83647168 77.83647168 2019 41.9439634 66.13096713 75.75193535 65.45173692 73.51309521 73.29766315 73.73550287 76.69090213 77.8877196 79.30684593 78.28317906 79.18529113 79.18529113 2020 66.658001 76.22346109 64.20484673 74.19637909 74.23571209 74.30212072 77.77982497 78.79406451 80.9094152 79.57382662 80.75137721 100.0917869 100.0917869 2021 76.66278175 62.98058854 74.97769407 75.34834772 74.9893088 78.84300447 79.86172209 83.06215571 81.19662498 82.00974685 102.3248249 99.63782696 99.63782696 2022 62.02060377 76.03853016 76.78412673 76.0584702 80.29156749 81.26147075 85.67872301 83.24956362 83.90036954 101.9875904 97.89017575 96.96722032 96.96722032 2023 76.97503994 78.04376503 76.94715778 81.65489652 82.5810001 87.88353888 85.01770013 85.64622755 101.9973056 96.00990854 98.01127147 97.27967257 97.27967257 2024 79.2396571 77.65407919 82.83933192 83.76815986 89.6371379 86.23197002 87.28531701 101.4371133 96.06463669 100.3814832 99.0077048 97.81858546 97.81858546 2025 78.69125354 84.33675967 85.27773202 91.51381162 87.67848194 89.39804541 101.18008 97.48859255 102.1112421 101.6837967 99.88918291 2026 86.10629067 87.04422683 93.14114307 89.0028776 91.2386226 100.8670708 98.83482539 103.322351 103.3158368 101.7271382 2027 88.94945981 94.45535398 90.00699496 92.64299776 100.9751408 99.98021891 104.460666 104.6521178 103.3746226 2028 96.20152134 91.54712568 94.67035367 102.2240111 101.9627148 106.5061131 106.3490128 105.4380004 2029 92.6880492 96.16559036 103.1685308 103.1910992 107.6756876 107.3928279 107.2284113 2030 98.26245409 104.9765915 105.3300388 109.8817363 108.7342945 109.2156201 2031 107.1981473 107.4494592 112.2147363 110.1957957 111.1142026 2032 109.631952 114.80717 111.8925218 113.0420358 2033 118.2174003 114.0439151 115.2501584 2034 115.9783742 117.0682607 2035 118.4798066
1997_1 1998_1 1999_1 2000_1 2001_1 2002_1 2003_1 2004_1 2005_1 2006_1 2007_1 2008_1 2009_1 2010_1 2011_1 2012_1 2013_2 2014_2 2015_1 2016_1 2017_1 2018_4 2019_1 2020_1 2021_2 2022_5 2023_2 2024_2 2025_1 Actual 1996 7570 7570 1997 7916 8081 8081 1998 8277 8461 8499 8499 1999 8678 8818 8846 9235 9235 2000 9097 9195 9182 9692 9828 9828 2001 9532 9605 9581 10154 10319 10150 10150 2002 9984 10046 10015 10610 10880 10315 10337 10337 2003 10453 10529 10476 11069 11477 10890 10756 10829 10829 2004 10938 11038 10960 11544 12059 11556 11309 11469 11553 11553 2005 11443 11565 11465 12054 12656 12168 11934 12091 12233 12293 12293 2006 11969 12112 11988 12589 13279 12803 12582 12682 12888 13082 13065 13065 2007 12518 12684 12528 13148 13932 13468 13263 13236 13586 13781 13645 13670 13670 2008 13280 13089 13734 14619 14166 13972 13862 14307 14508 14300 14201 14224.25 14224.25 2009 13688 14362 15338 14897 14712 14519 15029 15264 15014 14812 14257.02973 14235.7 14235.7 2010 15024 16109 15664 15480 15187 15757 16021 15742 15600 14452.23291 14594.61165 14513.15 14513.15 2011 16922 16469 16250 15862 16494 16768 16465 16445 15137.49572 14991.76657 15034.09679 14954.125 14954.125 2012 17314 17013 16562 17245 17524 17205 17256 16048.37076 15729.91435 15692.88575 15508.095 15548.975 15548.975 2013 17851 17301 18023 18311 17973 18043 17034.74663 16676.11102 16400.10633 15913.5375 16033.9 16627 16627 2014 18070 18826 19121 18764 18856 17986.40261 17606.4719 17257.81913 16575.0975 16646.44 17273 17251.425 17251.425 2015 19652 19963 19582 19685 18863.83368 18420.87186 18194.69438 17618.03 17632.285 18126 18015.725 17810 17810 2016 20839 20425 20540 19702.83997 19223.26679 19140.96676 18703.6475 18791.505 19083 18831.895 18494 18403.1 18403.1 2017 21295 21426 20536.83677 20036.20235 20033.28261 19708.395 19958.9675 20052 19701.41 19297 19157.413 19178.45 19178.45 2018 22355 21397.31295 20823.45514 20935.38969 20660.725 20942.8675 20954 20558.2875 20127 19925.75 20103.105 20236.25 20236.25 2019 22277.6543 21667.13399 21856.25915 21615.9275 21889.9775 21867 21403.7375 20906 20661.13 21135.705 21251.628 21219.85 21219.85 2020 22544.04671 22816.88859 22602.655 22854.215 22799 22314.67 21710 21378.175 22033.83 22119.542 22111.078 20999.725 20999.725 2021 23810.11012 23613.625 23841.7575 23755 23271.0125 22593 22168.4 22872.155 22939.1 23028.97 21950.685 22365 22365 2022 24654.71 24858.45 24746 24261.4675 23528 23037.395 23715.86 23778.085 23916.462 23082.22 24694 25015.5 25015.5 2023 25909.6975 25774 25287.42 24497 23947.81 24621.298 24672.14 24809.032 24066.322 26240 26237.92 26973.775 26973.775 2024 26830 26352.09 25506 24899.278 25583.328 25642.158 25723.685 25126.898 27291 27266.205 28176.595 28828.175 28828.175 2025 27455.53 26559 25889.075 26595.403 26656.058 26652.708 26249.238 28271 28610.078 29256.382 30136.145 2026 27660 26917.035 27608.128 27667.165 27615.498 27358.78 29266 29932.298 30503.552 31341.325 2027 27985.193 28677.25 28737.822 28653.002 28424.818 30332 31251.275 31755.688 32538.068 2028 29802.958 29861.795 29736.87 29505.788 31487 32525.38 33043.09 33764.525 2029 31006.062 30849.912 30622.71 32716 33810.782 34374.735 35047.148 2030 32003.068 31750.888 33996 35132.682 35745.852 36393.742 2031 32933.405 35318 36487.812 37156.59 37792.095 2032 36680 37874.165 38609.372 39252.438 2033 39288.07 40106.48 40767.865 2034 41645.695 42330.435 2035 43936.488
1997_1 1998_1 1999_1 2000_1 2001_1 2002_1 2003_1 2004_1 2005_1 2006_1 2007_1 2008_1 2009_1 2010_1 2011_1 2012_1 2013_2 2014_2 2015_1 2016_1 2017_1 2018_4 2019_1 2020_1 2021_2 2022_5 2023_2 2024_2 2025_1 Actual 1996 3733 3733 1997 3889 3771 3771 1998 4009 3790 3720 3720 1999 4173 3806 3630 3633 3633 2000 4358 3821 3515 3455 3410 3410 2001 4539 3821 3378 3292 3148 3320 3320 2002 4740 3765 3183 3097 2848 3380 3540 3540 2003 4954 3725 2989 2884 2509 3410 3766 3914 3914 2004 5184 3668 2770 2651 2131 3373 3927 4393 4296 4296 2005 5448 3606 2529 2394 1714 3288 4013 4771 4665 4592 4592 2006 5723 3503 2237 2080 1251 3177 4045 5055 4971 4925 4829.134 4829.134 2007 6011 3386 1917 1721 1128 3027 4034 5338 5246 5204 4994.652224 5035.297742 5035.297742 2008 3259 1574 1330 1039 2840 3983 5630 5494 5477 5104.294649 5231.956876 5802.851 5802.851 2009 1206 1016 939 2605 3894 5912 5716 5732 5232.15846 5443.111517 7192.850044 7543.987 7543.987 2010 941 878 2325 3766 6185 5919 5967 5380.020597 5698.063226 7828.862596 8796.840004 9017.764429 9017.764429 2011 818 1900 3501 6356 6012 6092 5403.026986 5827.389021 8238.371757 9785.377522 10429.91554 10128 10128 2012 1273 3062 6388 5955 6064 5241.68399 5751.113201 8474.622985 10478.93918 11597.50435 11242 11280 11280 2013 2565 6409 5884 6032 5089.445538 5700.56117 8516.402004 11055.94369 12385.72917 11945 12229 11982 11982 2014 6399 5784 5981 4911.550445 5613.272001 8733.854233 11556.47961 12995.68924 12401 12937 12717 12779.436 12779.436 2015 5658 5912 4708.702726 5502.74467 8925.437405 12055.39876 13624.79134 12783 13462 13263 13359.39889 13117 13117 2016 5848 4520.927541 5414.270754 9149.254416 12594.61407 14357.74214 13188 14025 13861 13905.11162 13978 14168.425 14168.425 2017 4274.143004 5268.717987 9334.674077 13133.45254 15064.01107 13509 14642 14507 14466.30558 14613 14837.714 14665.45 14665.45 2018 5049.736947 9126.642062 13678.34783 15766.96974 13801 15316 15218 15068.15781 15244 15415.709 15687.785 15751.183 15751.183 2019 9344.131167 14328.68526 16556.5393 14148 16092 16028 15782.15348 16033 16092.483 16762.061 16636.45 16803 16803 2020 15027.41088 17391.82219 14512 16957 16925 16580.27304 16886 16844.733 17827.443 17601.366 17855 21019 21019 2021 18253.49275 14872 17876 17899 17450.77143 17813 17704.066 18998.105 18625.775 18886 22461 22284 22284 2022 15291 18902 19001 18452.90103 18891 18720.526 20319.446 19795.152 20066 23541 24173 24256.835 24256.835 2023 19944 20115 19457.95097 20003 19776.341 21638.068 20975.686 21248 24547 25193 25716.119 26240 26240 2024 21260 20463.47284 21129 20857.667 22932.163 22111.738 22453 25488 26217 27370.221 27897 28199.313 2025 21605.10072 22399 22077.616 24338.467 23371.627 23827 26559 27561 29214.106 29749 30102.749 2026 23817 23429.725 25714.526 24624.573 25196 27596 28925 30926.754 31515 31882.633 2027 24892.678 27087.198 25866.05 26545 28702 30326 32645.29 33233 33636.105 2028 28670.899 27337.615 28152 30162 32105 34641.518 35141 35600.64 2029 28738.914 29667 31593 33760 36405.992 36916 37580.5 2030 31447 33331 35808 38604.401 38868 39747.651 2031 35304 37949 40944.702 40945 41992.385 2032 40213 43482.257 43201 44371.755 2033 46445.335 45739 46985.029 2034 48300 49555.504 2035 52055.866
Year Payroll plus Benefits Taxes as a Share of GDP Social Security Benefits as a Share of GDP Medicare Part A Benefits as a Share of GDP Social Security plus Medicare Part A as a Share of GDP 2024 5.648031638 5.155104795 1.480335009 6.635439804 2025 5.671483918 5.281613427 1.503183135 6.784796562 2026 5.682833265 5.377445879 1.513512262 6.890958142 2027 5.678522852 5.460861059 1.562655484 7.023516543 2028 5.676866177 5.543019736 1.601790268 7.144810004 2029 5.677285949 5.616028749 1.649036713 7.265065462 2030 5.678009857 5.68568907 1.696787085 7.382476154 2031 5.680693519 5.752349718 1.749942608 7.502292326 2032 5.681022214 5.814147922 1.800555057 7.614702979 2033 5.677439157 5.871884045 1.866212143 7.738096188 2034 5.668516278 5.932185788 1.923572172 7.85575796 2035 5.675408221 5.934996572 1.965680645 7.900677217 2036 5.671064788 5.924890469 2.00217683 7.927067299 2037 5.67354804 5.922149686 2.039953226 7.962102912 2038 5.656339366 5.884729173 2.065390998 7.950120171 2039 5.677362799 5.895099683 2.105988326 8.001088009 2040 5.67493383 5.88682477 2.140675014 8.027499785 2041 5.680542079 5.871058674 2.174526326 8.045584999 2042 5.696791045 5.876357873 2.219320197 8.09567807 2043 5.69905384 5.855671063 2.253874524 8.109545587 2044 5.747682432 5.867322388 2.301522405 8.168844793 2045 5.717264232 5.814747363 2.323234196 8.137981559 2046 5.74280776 5.823467729 2.371687602 8.195155331 2047 5.697885783 5.753276989 2.3889592 8.142236189 2048 5.730261457 5.772231849 2.442113625 8.214345474 2049 5.736144176 5.772272884 2.48906705 8.261339934 2050 5.716303368 5.744400577 2.524561972 8.268962549 2051 5.758930838 5.789947146 2.590819154 8.380766301 2052 5.747350604 5.773849014 2.632138182 8.405987196 2053 5.733893256 5.772342068 2.680209506 8.452551574 2054 5.742286385 5.798773176 2.743818434 8.54259161 2055 5.776291107 5.84963501 2.820093388 8.669728398 2056 5.761406992 5.854487849 2.871020422 8.725508271 2057 5.789834027 5.90253876 2.941292152 8.843830913 2058 5.802531917 5.946125765 3.002397984 8.94852375 2059 5.816147175 5.995939038 3.059335258 9.055274295 2060 5.849383637 6.063214834 3.12216163 9.185376464 2061 5.883997336 6.1405842 3.185278486 9.325862686 2062 5.875758974 6.166910594 3.216868474 9.383779068 2063 5.910142899 6.241198148 3.268092578 9.509290725 2064 5.90122152 6.269106847 3.293964493 9.56307134 2065 5.918327192 6.325474805 3.325547906 9.651022711 2066 5.905944377 6.35979558 3.3436886 9.70348418 2067 5.923019085 6.417277616 3.372575686 9.789853302 2068 5.923080312 6.45805798 3.394558427 9.852616407 2069 5.977808401 6.551032279 3.444193428 9.995225707 2070 5.936633214 6.531095585 3.434023073 9.965118658 2071 5.926222087 6.554802991 3.447633091 10.00243608 2072 5.964096336 6.619035057 3.485573488 10.10460855 2073 5.956380656 6.634345878 3.496273853 10.13061973 2074 5.955581674 6.649761274 3.506785055 10.15654633 2075 5.930874652 6.631738472 3.499648397 10.13138687 2076 5.986266332 6.714684228 3.544185588 10.25886982 2077 5.978805118 6.714615163 3.545003542 10.2596187 2078 5.991786258 6.760313587 3.569669486 10.32998307 2079 6.008970003 6.771357938 3.578164333 10.34952227 2080 5.991979013 6.752298151 3.570636826 10.32293498 2081 6.019947182 6.783095046 3.588983846 10.37207889 2082 6.037032044 6.812499548 3.605597797 10.41809734 2083 6.056323532 6.832517469 3.614456928 10.4469744 2084 6.055900607 6.835621217 3.616977991 10.45259921 2085 6.064752765 6.84007014 3.621065084 10.46113522 2086 6.075392239 6.840136651 3.623313532 10.46345018 2087 6.080151312 6.865573146 3.639227425 10.50480057 2088 6.075680516 6.867553013 3.640767465 10.50832048 2089 6.102643519 6.916638552 3.666611465 10.58325002 2090 6.103932502 6.92719006 3.672962945 10.600153 2091 6.110055422 6.953866582 3.687708866 10.64157545 2092 6.14977659 7.004116245 3.714213515 10.71832976 2093 6.143862704 6.98496464 3.705423623 10.69038826 2094 6.163827769 7.012793064 3.722491247 10.73528431 2095 6.138382182 6.98111639 3.706191451 10.68730784 2096 6.180947457 7.027648032 3.731598497 10.75924653 2097 6.137269793 6.980301857 3.708593797 10.68889565 2098 6.154876501 7.013280789 3.726061613 10.7393424 2099 6.191593166 7.057664883 3.749811336 10.80747622 2100 6.216580053 7.089057303 3.764847956 10.85390526
Age Current Policy Across-the-Board Increase All Taxes Cut All Benefits -50 67.0 215.7 247.7 190.7 -40 78.1 253.9 291.5 224.5 -30 66.6 257.7 295.6 228.1 -20 91.2 306.0 351.3 270.6 -10 88.9 325.7 373.7 288.2 0 105.6 370.8 425.5 328.0 10 151.1 435.6 500.7 384.7 20 131.6 425.6 488.8 376.3 30 87.4 365.9 419.1 324.3 40 -79.5 165.7 185.4 150.2 50 -268.7 -50.0 -66.1 -37.5 60 -443.4 -268.9 -320.7 -228.5 70 -416.0 -280.7 -333.9 -239.2 80 -236.3 -155.7 -186.8 -131.3
Age Across-the-Board Increase All Taxes Cut All Benefits -50 148.7 180.7 123.7 -40 175.8 213.4 146.3 -30 191.1 229.0 161.5 -20 214.7 260.0 179.3 -10 236.9 284.8 199.3 0 265.1 319.9 222.3 10 284.5 349.6 233.7 20 294.0 357.2 244.7 30 278.5 331.7 236.9 40 245.2 265.0 229.7 50 218.6 202.5 231.2 60 174.4 122.7 214.8 70 135.3 82.1 176.8 80 80.7 49.5 105.0
Adjustment Rate 2025 0.03228806 2026 0.038152902 2027 0.043839282 2028 0.049350942 2029 0.054691577 2030 0.059864831 2031 0.064874302 2032 0.069723537 2033 0.074416036 2034 0.078955251 2035 0.083344589 2036 0.087587405 2037 0.091687012 2038 0.095646674 2039 0.099469609 2040 0.103158991 2041 0.106717946 2042 0.110149556 2043 0.113456858 2044 0.116642845 2045 0.119710465 2046 0.122662621 2047 0.125502174 2048 0.128231941 2049 0.130854696 2050 0.13337317 2051 0.135790053 2052 0.13810799 2053 0.140329586 2054 0.142457406 2055 0.14449397 2056 0.14644176 2057 0.148303218 2058 0.150080742 2059 0.151776695 2060 0.153393396 2061 0.154933126 2062 0.156398129 2063 0.157790608 2064 0.159112729 2065 0.160366617 2066 0.161554364 2067 0.162678021 2068 0.163739601 2069 0.164741085 2070 0.165684412 2071 0.166571487 2072 0.167404181 2073 0.168184326 2074 0.168913721 2075 0.169594128 2076 0.170227277 2077 0.170814861 2078 0.171358541 2079 0.171859942 2080 0.172320658 2081 0.172742249 2082 0.17312624 2083 0.173474127 2084 0.173787372 2085 0.174067404 2086 0.174315622 2087 0.174533395 2088 0.174722057 2089 0.174882915 2090 0.175017244 2091 0.175126289 2092 0.175211266 2093 0.175273361 2094 0.175313731 2095 0.175333504 2096 0.175333779 2097 0.175315629 2098 0.175280096 2099 0.175228197 2100 0.175160921 2101 0.17507923 2102 0.174984057 2103 0.174876314 2104 0.174756881 2105 0.174626617 2106 0.174486353 2107 0.174336896 2108 0.174179027 2109 0.174013505 2110 0.173841061 2111 0.173662406 2112 0.173478225 2113 0.173289182 2114 0.173095914 2115 0.172899041 2116 0.172699155 2117 0.172496831 2118 0.172292618 2119 0.172087048 2120 0.171880628 2121 0.171673846 2122 0.17146717 2123 0.171261047 2124 0.171055904 2125 0.17085215 2126 0.170650172 2127 0.170450342 2128 0.17025301 2129 0.170058509 2130 0.169867154 2131 0.169679242 2132 0.169495054 2133 0.169314852 2134 0.169138883 2135 0.168967377 2136 0.168800546 2137 0.16863859 2138 0.16848169 2139 0.168330014 2140 0.168183713 2141 0.168042927 2142 0.167907778 2143 0.167778376 2144 0.167654817 2145 0.167537183 2146 0.167425545 2147 0.167319959 2148 0.16722047 2149 0.16712711 2150 0.1670399 2151 0.166958849 2152 0.166883955 2153 0.166815205 2154 0.166752577 2155 0.166696036 2156 0.16664554 2157 0.166601034 2158 0.166562458 2159 0.166529739 2160 0.166502797 2161 0.166481544 2162 0.166465884 2163 0.166455713 2164 0.166450918 2165 0.166451382 2166 0.166456978 2167 0.166467575 2168 0.166483034 2169 0.166503211 2170 0.166527957 2171 0.166557116 2172 0.166590529 2173 0.16662803 2174 0.166669452 2175 0.16671462 2176 0.166763359 2177 0.166815489 2178 0.166870825 2179 0.166929182 2180 0.166990372 2181 0.167054204 2182 0.167120486 2183 0.167189023 2184 0.16725962 2185 0.167332081 2186 0.16740621 2187 0.167481808 2188 0.167558679 2189 0.167636626 2190 0.167715453 2191 0.167794965 2192 0.167874966 2193 0.167955266 2194 0.168035673 2195 0.168115999 2196 0.168196057 2197 0.168275665 2198 0.168354642 2199 0.168432811 2200 0.16851 2201 0.16858604 2202 0.168660766 2203 0.168734017 2204 0.16880564 2205 0.168875483 2206 0.168943403 2207 0.169009262 2208 0.169072927 2209 0.169134273 2210 0.16919318 2211 0.169249538 2212 0.169303241 2213 0.169354193 2214 0.169402307 2215 0.169447501 2216 0.169489704 2217 0.169528854 2218 0.169564897 2219 0.16959779 2220 0.169627499 2221 0.169654002 2222 0.169677284 2223 0.169697343 2224 0.16971419 2225 0.169727844 2226 0.169738337 2227 0.169745714 2228 0.169750032 2229 0.16975136 2230 0.169749781 2231 0.16974539 2232 0.169738297 2233 0.169728624 2234 0.169716511 2235 0.169702108 2236 0.169685583 2237 0.169667117 2238 0.16964691 2239 0.169625173 2240 0.169602137 2241 0.169578048 2242 0.169553167 2243 0.169527776 2244 0.169502171 2245 0.169476666 2246 0.169451595 2247 0.169427308 2248 0.169404176 2249 0.169382585 2250 0.169362945 2251 0.169345682 2252 0.169331243 2253 0.169320095 2254 0.169312726 2255 0.169309644 2256 0.169311378 2257 0.16931848 2258 0.169331521 2259 0.169351096 2260 0.169377822 2261 0.169412337 2262 0.169455305 2263 0.16950741 2264 0.169569362 2265 0.169641893 2266 0.169725761 2267 0.169821746 2268 0.169930656 2269 0.170053321 2270 0.170190598 2271 0.170343369 2272 0.170512544 2273 0.170699056 2274 0.170903868 2275 0.171127967
Age Current Policy Stabilize Debt @ 100% starting 2025 -50 215.7 239.0 -40 253.9 282.4 -30 257.7 289.6 -20 306.0 341.3 -10 325.7 362.3 0 370.8 402.9 10 435.6 455.1 20 425.6 422.4 30 365.9 341.3 40 165.7 125.1 50 -50.0 -107.2 60 -268.9 -335.1 70 -280.7 -346.8 80 -155.7 -201.9