Felix Reichling

Felix Reichling

Felix Reichling joined the Penn Wharton Budget Model with a background in public policy analysis and macroeconomic research. He previously served as Chief of the Fiscal Policy Analysis Unit in the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) Macroeconomic Analysis Division. In that role, he led a team of economists in model development and research regarding the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, including dynamic scoring. Before joining the CBO, he worked as an economic consultant. At PWBM, Felix focuses on healthcare, immigration, and OLG model development.

Felix’s research focuses on how households manage economic shocks, such as unemployment or health issues, and the subsequent impact of insurance programs on household welfare, federal budgets, and economic performance. He and co-author Kent Smetters received the 2016 TIAA Paul A. Samuelson Award for their research on optimal annuity purchasing, published in the American Economic Review. His academic, PWBM, and CBO publications are listed on his personal website.

Felix earned a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Economics from Stanford University, where he also completed an M.S. in Management Science and Engineering and a B.A. with Honors in Economics and a minor in Mathematics.

Recent Related Posts

Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects

It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP due to scale effects. We project that deportation also reduces wages of high-skill workers, compromising 63% of workers. Still, authorized low-skilled workers can see their wages increase but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years. Even with new funds provided in the 2025 OBBBA, we estimate that permanent deportation would cost an additional $900 billion over the first 10 years.

Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects

The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs

Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) will reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%. A middle-income household faces a $22K lifetime loss. These losses are twice as large as a revenue-equivalent corporate tax increase from 21% to 36%, an otherwise highly distorting tax.

The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs

Shifting Immigration Toward High-Skilled Workers

We evaluate two immigration policies that shift 10 percent of future low-skilled immigration toward either: (i) high-skilled immigrants (“ HSI ”) that otherwise maintains the current share of STEM workers within the high-skilled group, or (ii) only high-skilled STEM workers (“ HSI STEM ”) that increases the share of STEM relative to other high-skill workers. The number of total immigrants remains the same under both policies. Both policies grow the economy, reduce federal debt, and increase wages across all income groups: lower-skilled, higher-skilled non-STEM workers, and higher-skilled STEM workers. In fact, this policy change affords the rare opportunity of a “Pareto improvement” benefitting all groups.

Shifting Immigration Toward High-Skilled Workers

Taxing Foreign Affiliates of U.S.-Domiciled Firms

We explain how the PWBM uses its dynamic Overlapping Generation (OLG) model to analyze tax policies affecting foreign-earned income by affiliates of U.S.-domiciled firms. We evaluate two illustrative policy changes: we show how firms’ tax liabilities and the allocation of capital between domestic and international production are affected by an increase in foreign tax rates and a decrease in U.S. tax exemptions on foreign-derived income.

Taxing Foreign Affiliates of U.S.-Domiciled Firms