Key Points
From January 2020 to February 2021, 70,000 fewer births occurred than expected based on pre-pandemic patterns.
Over the course of 2021, birth rates rebounded to levels above pre-pandemic norms. By December 2021, the cumulative number of births had nearly returned to its expected value if the pandemic had not happened.
In 2021, the number of births by college educated women aged 25-39 rose greatly above its expected value. The relative increase in fertility was greatest among college educated women aged 25-29. In 2021, about 40,000 excess births were attributable to college educated women aged 25-49.
Excess Births during the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic led initially to a decline in the number of births in 2020 followed by a rebound in 2021. Previous research has found that births in the U.S. fell below pre-pandemic trends in 2020 but exceeded them in 2021, and identified similar patterns in other high-income countries.
In this brief, we present new estimates of the pandemic’s impact on U.S. fertility. While much of the prior research has relied on extrapolating aggregate pre-pandemic linear trends to infer what would have happened if there had been no pandemic, we instead adapt methods used to measure excess mortality related to COVID-19.
To estimate “excess” births during the pandemic, we first estimate monthly expected births given recent fertility patterns. We deem an observed count of monthly births to be in “excess” if the number of observed births is statistically different (in either direction) from expected births under pre-pandemic trends. Otherwise, we use the observed value as the expected number of births. We then define the difference between observed and expected births to be the number excess births. This method provides estimates more robust to the random nature of the natality process than simply defining excess to be the difference between observed births and a pre-pandemic trend, regardless of how unexpected the observed value is.
Figure 1 plots estimated expected births in 2020 in 2021 against the actual observed number of births. Note that births exhibit strong seasonality, peaking in the summer and falling in winter, which is reflected in expected births. Births began to drop consistently below expectations in August of 2020 and then plummeted in late 2020 to early 2021, bottoming out with 21,000 fewer births than expected in February 2021. However, from April 2021 onwards, the number of births leapt back up and maintained or outpaced expectations for most of the year.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates from National Vital Statistics System and Census Bureau data.
Figure 2 shows cumulative monthly excess births during this period. In total, negative excess births in 2020 and early 2021 reduced the number of births by 70,000 through February 2021, relative to expectations. The boom of positive excess births in 2021 reversed this decline, however, and by the end of 2021 had largely offset the previous year’s shortfall.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates from National Vital Statistics System and Census Bureau data.
Annually, Table 1 shows that there were around 36,000 fewer births in 2020 and 34,000 more births in 2021 than expected, for a net effect close to zero over the two-year period.
| 2020 | 2021 | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Births | 3,617,034 | 3,666,993 | 7,284,027 |
| Excess Births | -36,287 | 33,947 | -2,340 |
The massive decline in expected births during the later months of 2020 and the early months of 2021 was anticipated as a behavioral fertility to public health and economic conditions during the first few months of the pandemic. Moreover, many of the ‘missing’ births from earlier in 2020 have been attributed to a decline in immigration of pregnant women due to travel restrictions and behavioral response. However, the rise in fertility to levels exceeding pre-pandemic trends was unanticipated. To analyze this pattern further, we examine excess fertility across age and educational attainment.
To compare the excess fertility across socio-demographic groups, we calculate the percentage relative excess births (sometimes called the “P-score”), defined as the ratio of excess births to expected births multiplied by one hundred. We refer to this measure as the “relative excess.” Groups with positive (negative) relative excess experienced a rise (drop) in fertility relative to pre-pandemic trends.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates from National Vital Statistics System and Census Bureau data.
Fertility fell below expectations in 2020 for all age groups except ages 15-19, which saw a slight relative increase in 2020, as seen in Figure 3. In 2021, fertility rose above pre-pandemic trends among ages 15-29 and 35-39, with women aged 25-29 experiencing the largest relative increase in births. Fertility among early women in their early 30s was slightly below expectation, whereas fertility in women 40-49 remained depressed, despite some recovery from declines in 2020.
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates from National Vital Statistics System and Census Bureau data.
In 2021, fertility exceeded expectations among college-educated women aged 25-39. Notably, relative excess fertility rose to nearly 10% among college-educated women aged 25-29 (see Figure 4). Women older than 39 and younger women without college degrees generally maintained levels of fertility slightly below expectation in 2020 and 2021.The greatest magnitude change in relative fertility was among women aged 45-49, an effect attributable to low expected fertility rates.
In general, we find excess fertility in 2021 was driven by two groups: women aged 15-24 and college-educated women aged 25-39. In particular, the boom in births by college-educated women aged 25 to 29 resulted in around 26,000 excess births, accounting for nearly 80% of all excess births in 2021. A suggested explanation for this pattern is that during the pandemic women who otherwise would have delayed having families chose to begin them.
This analysis was produced by Duncan Haystead under the direction of Alex Arnon and the faculty director, Kent Smetters. Mariko Paulson prepared the brief for the website.
Date Expected Observed 2020-01-01 00:00:00 302929.2997 305302 2020-02-01 00:00:00 287147.5297 283153 2020-03-01 00:00:00 299648.8891 302117 2020-04-01 00:00:00 291447.0483 290695 2020-05-01 00:00:00 302344.9589 301662 2020-06-01 00:00:00 306533.0806 302343 2020-07-01 00:00:00 321092.3954 321864 2020-08-01 00:00:00 320852.2004 319819 2020-09-01 00:00:00 317156.983 311922 2020-10-01 00:00:00 307924.9995 305305 2020-11-01 00:00:00 301047.6411 282779 2020-12-01 00:00:00 295196.2604 290073 2021-01-01 00:00:00 292034.182 277324 2021-02-01 00:00:00 287810.8471 266501 2021-03-01 00:00:00 290884.7248 302871 2021-04-01 00:00:00 293391.6416 293375 2021-05-01 00:00:00 299600.8102 301101 2021-06-01 00:00:00 310109.0026 313780 2021-07-01 00:00:00 318075.5948 326346 2021-08-01 00:00:00 323328.7732 330485 2021-09-01 00:00:00 317909.1402 326047 2021-10-01 00:00:00 309430.9335 315653 2021-11-01 00:00:00 298202.4874 302068 2021-12-01 00:00:00 292267.2227 311442
Date Excess Births 2020-01-01 00:00:00 2372.700276 2020-02-01 00:00:00 -1621.82946 2020-03-01 00:00:00 846.2814855 2020-04-01 00:00:00 94.23319129 2020-05-01 00:00:00 -588.7256811 2020-06-01 00:00:00 -4778.806257 2020-07-01 00:00:00 -4007.201693 2020-08-01 00:00:00 -5040.402141 2020-09-01 00:00:00 -10275.38516 2020-10-01 00:00:00 -12895.38465 2020-11-01 00:00:00 -31164.02571 2020-12-01 00:00:00 -36287.28608 2021-01-01 00:00:00 -50997.46808 2021-02-01 00:00:00 -72307.31518 2021-03-01 00:00:00 -60321.03994 2021-04-01 00:00:00 -60337.68151 2021-05-01 00:00:00 -58837.49175 2021-06-01 00:00:00 -55166.49434 2021-07-01 00:00:00 -46896.08909 2021-08-01 00:00:00 -39739.86234 2021-09-01 00:00:00 -31602.00254 2021-10-01 00:00:00 -25379.93599 2021-11-01 00:00:00 -21514.42336 2021-12-01 00:00:00 -2339.646014
Year Age Group Relative Excess 2020 15-19 0.776651723 2020 20-24 -1.134283356 2020 25-29 -0.09380881 2020 30-34 -1.449274959 2020 35-39 -1.56791098 2020 40-44 -3.002461609 2020 45-49 -4.492174285 2021 15-19 2.036030822 2021 20-24 0.250958232 2021 25-29 3.020512936 2021 30-34 -0.299724048 2021 35-39 1.062144885 2021 40-44 -2.560691511 2021 45-49 -2.716092161
Year AgeGroup Education RelativeExcess 2020 25-49 No high school degree -1.126883904 2020 25-49 High school degree or GED -0.603517986 2020 25-49 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -0.989795953 2020 25-49 Bachelor's degree or above -1.306668444 2021 25-49 No high school degree -1.705574577 2021 25-49 High school degree or GED -0.630237472 2021 25-49 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -0.08379224 2021 25-49 Bachelor's degree or above 3.080603132 2020 25-29 No high school degree -0.061577445 2020 30-34 No high school degree -2.307051643 2020 35-39 No high school degree -0.547925968 2020 40-44 No high school degree -3.032817166 2020 45-49 No high school degree -7.351154494 2020 25-29 High school degree or GED -0.409873651 2020 30-34 High school degree or GED -0.601251698 2020 35-39 High school degree or GED -0.848862341 2020 40-44 High school degree or GED -2.297150938 2020 45-49 High school degree or GED -3.75614368 2020 25-29 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -0.641521328 2020 30-34 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -1.175241279 2020 35-39 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -0.998676998 2020 40-44 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -3.525848541 2020 45-49 Some four-year college or Associate's degree 1.13520344 2020 25-29 Bachelor's degree or above 0.87006663 2020 30-34 Bachelor's degree or above -1.74629143 2020 35-39 Bachelor's degree or above -2.167574035 2020 40-44 Bachelor's degree or above -2.980419639 2020 45-49 Bachelor's degree or above -5.935119778 2021 25-29 No high school degree 0.459757891 2021 30-34 No high school degree -3.630981396 2021 35-39 No high school degree -1.72877258 2021 40-44 No high school degree -3.440032079 2021 45-49 No high school degree -16.13980903 2021 25-29 High school degree or GED -0.035299904 2021 30-34 High school degree or GED -1.018266314 2021 35-39 High school degree or GED -1.094346654 2021 40-44 High school degree or GED -3.749430272 2021 45-49 High school degree or GED 0.991456578 2021 25-29 Some four-year college or Associate's degree 1.118301993 2021 30-34 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -0.84283374 2021 35-39 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -0.617258541 2021 40-44 Some four-year college or Associate's degree -3.926855116 2021 45-49 Some four-year college or Associate's degree 0.162468493 2021 25-29 Bachelor's degree or above 9.38487533 2021 30-34 Bachelor's degree or above 0.696757375 2021 35-39 Bachelor's degree or above 2.777182359 2021 40-44 Bachelor's degree or above -1.378972656 2021 45-49 Bachelor's degree or above -1.184908139