Efraim Berkovich

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Brief Education Growth Public Investment

Total Cost of Universal Pre-K, Including New Facilities

We estimate that each new preschooler for a universal pre-K program requires about $21,000 in new construction costs for facilities expansion. Including non-construction costs, a universal pre-K program for three- and four-year-olds will cost about $351 billion over the 10-year budget window. If made permanent after 10 years, this program will have essentially no impact on long-run GDP. A pre-K program for just four-year-olds reduces the 10-year cost to $196 billion and slightly increases long-run GDP, if that program is made permanent.

Jun 2, 2022

Daniela Viana Costa, Maddison Erbabian, Youran Wu · Jun 2, 2022 · 17 min read

Brief Inflation

Impact of Inflation by Household Income

We estimate that inflation in 2021 will require the average U.S. household to spend around $3,500 more in 2021 to achieve the same level of consumption of goods and services as in recent previous years (2019 or 2020). Moreover, we estimate that lower-income households spend more of their budget on goods and services that have been more impacted by inflation. Lower-income households will have to spend about 7 percent more while higher-income households will have to spend about 6 percent more.

Dec 15, 2021

Zheli He, Xiaoyue Sun, Efraim Berkovich · Dec 15, 2021 · 13 min read

Brief COVID-19 Education Growth

COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Using recently available data on learning loss from pandemic school closures, PWBM estimates that projected 2051 GDP is 1.4 percent lower than it would have been without the learning loss. Extending the 2021-22 school year for all public schools by one month would cost $78 billion and limit the reduction in 2051 GDP to 1.0 percent—a net present value gain in GDP of more than $1 trillion over the next three decades, equal to a $15.14 return for each $1 invested.

Oct 27, 2021

Daniela Viana Costa, Maddison Erbabian, Youran Wu · Oct 27, 2021 · 12 min read

Brief Debt Education Growth

Economic Effects from Preschool and Childcare Programs

By 2051, we find that a combination of targeted preschool and targeted childcare programs increase GDP by 0.1 percent relative to current policy, even if deficit financed. Universal versions of these programs are more costly and would instead reduce GDP by 0.2 percent by 2051.

Aug 23, 2021

Daniela Viana Costa, Maddison Erbabian, Youran Wu · Aug 23, 2021 · 24 min read

Brief Debt Growth Public Investment Tax Policy

Updated Bipartisan Senate Infrastructure Deal: Budgetary and Economic Effects

The bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal, endorsed by President Biden, authorizes about $548 billion in additional infrastructure investments, which we estimate is funded by $132 billion in new tax provisions and $351 billion in new deficits. We project that proposal would have no significant effect on GDP by end of the budget window (2031) or in the long run (2050).

Aug 5, 2021

Jon Huntley, John Ricco · Aug 5, 2021 · 6 min read

Brief Debt Growth

President Biden’s FY2022 Budget Proposal: Budgetary and Economic Effects

PWBM estimates that President Biden’s FY2022 budget proposal would increase spending by $5.9 trillion and increase revenue by $3.9 trillion over the 2022-2031 budget window. By 2050, we project that the President’s budget proposals would decrease public debt by 7.3 percent and decrease GDP by 1.1 percent relative to current law.

Jul 6, 2021

Alexander Arnon, Marcos Dinerstein, Maddison Erbabian, John Ricco, Youran Wu · Jul 6, 2021 · 12 min read

Brief Debt Public Investment Tax Policy

Bipartisan Senate Infrastructure Deal: Budgetary and Economic Effects

The bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal, endorsed by President Biden, authorizes $1.2 trillion of spending, representing about $579 billion in additional infrastructure investments funded by a mix of deficits, user fees, and other tax provisions. This proposal would increase output in 2050 by 0.1 percent.

Jun 30, 2021

Jon Huntley, John Ricco · Jun 30, 2021 · 7 min read

Brief Education Entitlements Immigration SNAP Social Security Tax Policy

Effects of President Biden’s Unauthorized Immigrant Legalization Proposal on SNAP and Payroll Tax

PWBM projects that the legalization provisions of the U.S. Citizenship Act proposed by President Biden would increase per capita spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by 1.2 percent in 2031 and 0.7 percent 2050 relative to the current policy baseline. Per capita payroll taxes would increase by 1.3 and 0.2 percent relative to the current policy baseline, in 2031 and 2050 respectively.

Jun 30, 2021

Daniela Viana Costa · Jun 30, 2021 · 7 min read

Brief COVID-19 Education Growth

COVID-19 School Closures: Long-run Macroeconomic effects

PWBM estimates that the learning loss from school closures reduced GDP by 3.6 percent in 2050. Extending the 2021-22 school year by one month would cost about $75 billion nationally but would limit the reduction in GDP to 3.1 percent. This smaller reduction in GDP produces a net present value gain of $1.2 trillion over the next three decades, equal to about a $16 return for each $1 invested in extending the 2021-22 school year.

May 17, 2021

Daniela Viana Costa, Maddison Erbabian, Youran Wu · May 17, 2021 · 17 min read

Brief COVID-19 Demographics Education

COVID-19: Cost of virtual schooling by race and income

PWBM estimates that schools in the Philadelphia and surrounding suburb districts with more Black students are less likely to reopen with in-person instruction relative to schools with more White students, even after controlling for differences in income by district. By March 2021, Black students in grades K-5 have incurred a 11.9 percent loss in lifetime income from school closures while White students have lost 10.4 percent. Students educated in the city face larger losses than students educated in the surrounding suburbs.

Mar 11, 2021

Maddison Erbabian, Youran Wu · Mar 11, 2021 · 18 min read