Table 1. Conventional and Dynamic Revenue Estimates, Fiscal Years 2021-2030
Billions of Dollars, Change from Current-Law Baseline
| Provision | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Budget window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliminate stepped-up basis | 10 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 204 |
| Raise the top rate on ordinary income | 19 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 163 |
| Tax capital gains and dividends at ordinary rates | 14 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 173 |
| Limit itemized deductions | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 36 | 217 |
| Raise the corporate tax rate | 69 | 104 | 114 | 118 | 122 | 132 | 140 | 142 | 143 | 146 | 1,230 |
| Impose a minimum tax on corporate book income | 19 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 212 |
| Raise the tax rate on foreign profits | 34 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 310 |
| Eliminate fossil fuel subsidies | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
| Eliminate real estate loopholes | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| Conventional | 178 | 227 | 240 | 254 | 269 | 261 | 277 | 285 | 289 | 294 | 2,574 |
| Dynamic (includes macroeconomic effects) | 160 | 205 | 216 | 229 | 242 | 235 | 250 | 257 | 261 | 265 | 2,320 |
Table 2: Distribution of Federal Tax Change Under Former Vice President Biden's Tax Plan, 2021
| Corporate, individual income and payroll taxes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income group | Average tax change | Share with a tax increase | Percent change in after-tax income | Share of tax change | Share of federal taxes paid | Change in share of federal taxes paid |
| Bottom quintile | $15 | 31.0% | -0.5% | 0.4% | -0.2% | 0.1% |
| Second quintile | $100 | 93.1% | -0.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Middle quintile | $195 | 95.9% | -0.4% | 3.2% | 7.9% | -0.4% |
| Fourth quintile | $385 | 95.3% | -0.5% | 5.4% | 16.3% | -1.0% |
| 80-90% | $710 | 98.8% | -0.5% | 4.1% | 13.2% | -0.8% |
| 90-95% | $1,275 | 99.3% | -0.7% | 3.4% | 10.3% | -0.6% |
| 95-99% | $3,260 | 99.6% | -1.1% | 7.1% | 16.8% | -0.9% |
| 99-99.9% | $37,830 | 100.0% | -4.5% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 0.3% |
| Top 0.1% | $1,007,925 | 100.0% | -13.9% | 56.0% | 19.4% | 3.3% |
| Individual and payroll tax only | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income group | Average tax change | Share with a tax increase | Percent change in after-tax income | Share of tax change | Share of federal taxes paid | Change in share of federal taxes paid |
| Bottom quintile | $0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| Second quintile | $0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Middle quintile | $0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | -0.4% |
| Fourth quintile | $0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.9% | -0.9% |
| 80-90% | $0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.8% | -0.7% |
| 90-95% | $5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% | -0.5% |
| 95-99% | $140 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 17.2% | -0.9% |
| 99-99.9% | $21,945 | 83.8% | -2.6% | 19.9% | 15.2% | 0.2% |
| Top 0.1% | $754,530 | 99.3% | -10.4% | 79.4% | 18.1% | 3.2% |
Note: “Income” is defined as AGI plus: above-the-line deductions, nontaxable interest income, nontaxable Social Security benefits, nontaxable pensions and annuities, employer-side payroll taxes, and corporate liability. Seventy-five percent of the corporate income tax is assumed to be borne by the owners of capital; the rest is assumed to fall on wages. Federal taxes included are individual income, payroll, and corporate income taxes.
| Year | GDP | Capital stock | Hours worked | Average hourly wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 2040 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 2050 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Note: Consistent with empirical evidence, the projections above assume that the U.S. economy is 40 percent open and 60 percent closed. Specifically, 40 percent of new government debt is purchased by foreigners.