At 9AM this morning, the White House released a set of revenue options for budget reconciliation that the White House estimated to total $1,995 billion over 10 years (available here). PWBM's estimate of the same package is $1,527 billion, a difference of $468 billion.
Revenue Provisions in the House Ways and Means Reconciliation Bill: Budgetary Effects
PWBM projects that the revenue-raising provisions in the House Ways and Means Reconciliation Bill would raise roughly $2.4 trillion from 2022 to 2031. For more information, please see our full analysis.
Capital Gains Withholding
We estimate the budgetary effects of withholding unrealized capital gains from wealthy taxpayers. The proposal would treat death and charitable contributions as taxable realization events, and require taxpayers with net worth above a certain threshold to pre-pay taxes on their unrealized capital gains over ten years. We estimate the revenue effects under two tax rate regimes and several net worth thresholds. For more details on this proposal, refer to the working paper “Capital Gains Withholding” by Emmanuel Saez, Danny Yagan, and Gabriel Zucman.
The Biden Platform
Presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign has released a substantial list of policy proposals. PWBM finds that over the 10-year budget window 2021 – 2030, the Biden platform would raise $3.375 trillion in additional tax revenue and increase spending by $5.37 trillion. Including macroeconomic and health effects, by 2050 the Biden platform would decrease the federal debt by 6.1 percent and increase GDP by 0.8 percent relative to current law. Almost 80 percent of the increase in taxes under the Biden tax plan would fall on the top 1 percent of the income distribution. Please see our analysis of the estimate for more information on the proposals.
The Updated Biden Tax Plan
We estimate the budgetary, distributional and economic effects over the 10-year budget window (2021 - 2030) of Presidential Candidate and Former Vice President Joe Biden's updated tax plan. Detailed summaries of each proposal can be found in our analysis of this estimate and our analysis of the previous version of his plan.
The Biden Tax Plan
We estimate the budgetary, distributional and economic effects over the 10-year budget window (2021 - 2030) of Former Vice President Joe Biden's tax plan, which raises taxes on high-income households through ten specific proposals, united around the common theme of raising taxes on capital income. Detailed summaries of each proposal can be found in our analysis of the estimate.
Senator Michael Bennet’s “The Real Deal” Tax Plan
We estimate the budgetary effects of five major tax proposals included in Senator Michael Bennet’s “The Real Deal” tax plan over the 10-year budget window (2020 - 2029).
Middle-Bracket Rate Cut
We estimate the budgetary, distributional, and economic effects (relative to current law) of lowering the marginal tax rate for the current 22 percent individual income tax bracket to 15 percent, beginning in tax year 2020. We consider a scenario in which this rate is permanently lowered and a scenario in which it is allowed to revert to 25 percent beginning in tax year 2026, as scheduled under current law.
70% Top Marginal Rate
Please see our previously published analysis.
Tax Reform 2.0
Please see our previously published analysis.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Extending Changes to Individual Taxes
Please see our previously published analysis.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Please see our full analysis of the conventional and dynamic revenue estimates and the macroeconomic effects estimates, the conventional distributional effects estimate, as well as the effects by industry estimate.