We estimate the budgetary and distributional effects of permanently forgiving the September to December 2020 payroll tax deferral under President Trump's August executive order. We project that this forgiveness would cost $122 billion dollars.
The Biden Platform
Presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign has released a substantial list of policy proposals. PWBM finds that over the 10-year budget window 2021 – 2030, the Biden platform would raise $3.375 trillion in additional tax revenue and increase spending by $5.37 trillion. Including macroeconomic and health effects, by 2050 the Biden platform would decrease the federal debt by 6.1 percent and increase GDP by 0.8 percent relative to current law. Almost 80 percent of the increase in taxes under the Biden tax plan would fall on the top 1 percent of the income distribution. Please see our analysis of the estimate for more information on the proposals.
President Trump’s Payroll Tax Holiday
In response to the economic effects of the coronavirus, President Trump has proposed a payroll tax holiday that would temporarily eliminate all Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes through December 31st, 2020. We estimate the budgetary, distributional and economic effects if the holiday were run from April 1 through December 31, 2020. Updated on March 17, 2020 to include two scenarios for how the employer side of the tax cut would be distributed: either to the full benefit of business owners and corporate equity holders (“profits rise”) or to the full benefit of workers (“wages rise”).
The Updated Biden Tax Plan
We estimate the budgetary, distributional and economic effects over the 10-year budget window (2021 - 2030) of Presidential Candidate and Former Vice President Joe Biden's updated tax plan. Detailed summaries of each proposal can be found in our analysis of this estimate and our analysis of the previous version of his plan.
The Sanders Plan for Social Security
We estimate the effects on Social Security's finances and the economy of Senator Bernie Sanders' Social Security plan. Detailed summaries of the proposals in the plan can be found in our analysis of the estimate.
The Biden Plan for Social Security
We estimate the effects on Social Security's finances and the economy of Former Vice President Joe Biden's Social Security plan. Detailed summaries of the proposals in the plan can be found in our analysis of the estimate.
Medicare for All: Comparison of Financing Options
We present the macroeconomic and demographic effects of a stylized mandatory single-payer healthcare system (“Medicare for All” or “M4A”) system under three different financing mechanisms: premiums, payroll, and deficits.
Senator Sanders’ Medicare for All (S.1129)
We estimate the budgetary, economic, health and health coverage effects the Medicare for All Act of 2019 (S.1129) introduced by Senator Sanders, which would provide universal coverage, eliminate all private and public health insurance programs, and expand Medicare to cover additional benefits. More information on the specifics of the act can be found in our analysis of the estimate.
Raising the Social Security Taxable Maximum
We estimate the budgetary, economic and distributional effects of raising the OASDI taxable maximum to $300,000. The policy would be enacted on January 1st, 2021.
The Social Security 2100 Act
Please see our previously published analysis.
Payroll Tax Holiday
Please see our previously published analysis.
Options to Return Social Security to Financial Balance
Please see our previously published analysis.
Options for Universal Basic Income
Please see our previously published analysis.