| Provision | Current Law | Proposed Law |
|---|---|---|
| Benefit Provisions | ||
| Special Minimum Benefit | Indexed to CPI-W, full Special Minimum Benefit is $886.40 in 2019 (currently outdated, since wage growth exceeds price growth) | Set Special Minimum Benefit at 125% of Federal Poverty Line ($1,301 in 2019), Grown by the National Averate Wage Index (AWI) |
| Increase the first PIA bend point | First bend point in 2020 is $960. Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME) up to $960 are replaced at the highest rate, 90% | Phase in a 15-percent increase in the first band point starting from 2025 to 2039 |
| Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) | CPI- Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) | CPI-Elderly (CPI-E) |
| Student Benefits (Dependent Child Benefits) | Available for students of eligible workers up to age 18 (or age 19 and full-time student, no higher than grade 12) | Continue benefits for children of disabled, or deceased workers until they attain age 22 if the child is enrolled in high school, college, or vocational school |
| Tax Provisions | ||
| Payroll Taxes on Wage Earnings Above $250,000 (Donut Hole) | 0%. Earnings above taxable-maximum ($132,900 in 2019) are not subject to payroll tax | 12.40% |
| Additional Investment Income Tax | No revenues from investment income tax dedicated to OASI Trust Fund | Apply a separate 6.2-percent tax on investment income payable to OASDI Trust Fund |
| Long Range OASDI Actuarial Present Value Balance Ratio | Short Range OASDI Actuarial Present Value Balance Ratio | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SSA Actuaries | PWBM | PWBM | |
| Estimates (2018-2092) | Conventional (Static) Estimates (2020-2094) | Dynamic Estimates (2020-2050) | |
| Current Law | -2.84 | -3.55 | -2.25 |
| Effect of proposed changes | 2.22 | 2.33 | 1.85 |
| Proposed Law | -0.62 | -1.22 | -0.40 |
Note: The OASDI actuarial present value balance ratio is the actuarial balance as a percent of current law taxable payroll. See here for a discussion of current law and current policy. SSA Actuaries' estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2018 OASDI Trustees Report. Consistent with our previous dynamic analysis and the empirical evidence, the dynamic projections above assume that the U.S. economy is 40 percent open and 60 percent closed. Specifically, 40 percent of new government debt is purchased by foreigners.
Note: Consistent with our previous dynamic analysis and the empirical evidence, the dynamic projections above assume that the U.S. economy is 40 percent open and 60 percent closed. Specifically, 40 percent of new government debt is purchased by foreigners.
| Year | GDP | Labor Income | Hours Worked | Capital Service |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.1 | -1.2 |
| 2040 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| 2050 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.9 |
Note: Consistent with our previous dynamic analysis and the empirical evidence, the dynamic projections above assume that the U.S. economy is 40 percent open and 60 percent closed. Specifically, 40 percent of new government debt is purchased by foreigners.
Year,Current Law,Proposed Law
2021,-1.29,0.39
2022,-1.54,0.22
2023,-1.67,0.17
2024,-1.88,-0.13
2025,-2.12,-0.32
2026,-2.13,-0.28
2027,-2.50,-0.64
2028,-2.61,-0.69
2029,-2.80,-0.69
2030,-2.87,-0.84
2031,-3.04,-0.90
2032,-3.03,-1.02
2033,-3.25,-1.25
2034,-3.39,-1.27
2035,-3.42,-1.35
2036,-3.51,-1.36
2037,-3.58,-1.41
2038,-3.70,-1.42
2039,-3.57,-1.38
2040,-3.58,-1.41
2041,-3.73,-1.41
2042,-3.64,-1.38
2043,-3.60,-1.21
2044,-3.64,-1.26
2045,-3.69,-1.29
2046,-3.65,-1.28
2047,-3.50,-1.25
2048,-3.40,-1.20
2049,-3.34,-1.14
2050,-3.01,-0.88