Documentation

Starting with survey micro-data, the Microsim builds an initial simulated population and economy, including demographic information, individual decisions about work and residency, and macroeconomic characteristics such as total employment and output.

The motion of this population over time, generally beginning in the mid-1990s, is calibrated and validated to capture the momentum of demographic and economic shifts in the United States. Aggregating the simulated population's labor and capital supplies and combining with productivity growth factors yields conventional projections for the economy as a whole.

Continuing the simulation forward in time generates projections of alternative paths that the economy may take in the future given its current features and momentum. These paths help to estimate the U.S. economic outlook and the range of uncertainty associated with it.

See the complete technical documentation for the PWBM Microsim.