The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We estimate an effective tariff rate (ETR) of 9.8 percent through December 2025. We project that replacing the IEEPA with a new 15% global tariff rate has only a small impact on the ETR, lowering it to 9.1 percent, on a consistent concept basis.
We project that corporate tax revenue will decrease by $276 billion over 10 years on a conventional basis due to changes in international tax provisions related to the Section 250 deduction under OBBBA.
We estimate the reconciliation bill signed by President Trump increases primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.6 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 percent in 10 years and 4.6 percent in 30 years.
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1 percent in 10 years and 24.3 percent in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window.
We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net.
For the final bill, please see our analysis of the President Trump-Signed Reconciliation Bill .
A package of 13 major tax and spending reforms, based on standard public economics design principles, is shown to reduce federal debt, increase social insurance, and expand the economy more than any previously analyzed policies by PWBM.
