Before joining Penn Wharton Budget Model, Jon was part of the Fiscal Studies Unit at the Congressional Budget Office and specialized in building models to analyze the effects of changes in fiscal policy on the economy. Jon’s academic research focuses on household finance and how household savings and consumption decisions are affected by economic frictions. His research on how tax-deferred retirement savings accounts encourage households to spend out of anticipated changes to income such as tax rebates has been published in the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Jon received his Ph.D. in economics from Northwestern University and his B.S. in mathematics and economics from Duke University.
Seven reform packages each avoid Social Security trust fund depletion through 2100. Their 2060 GDP effects range from +0.4 to +12.1 percent and differ in who pays across generations.
We project that Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will deplete in six years (2032). We consider five different reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts. Traditional policy analysis that dominates federal policymaking often provides very different — even opposite — insights compared to more comprehensive modeling.
Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) will reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%. A middle-income household faces a $22K lifetime loss. These losses are twice as large as a revenue-equivalent corporate tax increase from 21% to 36%, an otherwise highly distorting tax.
Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits reduces incentives to save and work while increasing federal debt. Wages and GDP fall over time. The policy primarily benefits high-income households nearing or in retirement while harming households under thirty and all future generations across the entire income distribution.
We explain how the PWBM uses its dynamic Overlapping Generation (OLG) model to analyze tax policies affecting foreign-earned income by affiliates of U.S.-domiciled firms. We evaluate two illustrative policy changes: we show how firms’ tax liabilities and the allocation of capital between domestic and international production are affected by an increase in foreign tax rates and a decrease in U.S. tax exemptions on foreign-derived income.
We examine two major investment tax incentives for the computer sector. The impact on computer-sector investment as well as economy-wide investment is very small, even when the computer sector is modeled as a production complement.
For more election analysis, check out our Election 2024 page .
For more election analysis, check out our Election 2024 page .
PWBM estimates that President Biden’s FY2025 budget proposal would reduce primary deficits by $1.7 trillion over the 2025-2034 budget window. Accounting for economic feedback effects, GDP falls by 0.8 percent relative to current law in 2034. By 2054, debt falls by 5.4 percent and GDP declines by 1.3 percent relative to current law.
Note: This document was updated on 5/30/2024 to include a discussion of how much of the policy would be paid for by economic feedback effects.
