PWBM’s Efraim Berkovich, the Wharton School’s Marshall Meyer and Mary Lovely of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University discussed how the recently imposed tariffs on Chinese goods are raising prices for consumers, disrupting supply chains and weighing down economic growth in the long-run.
We find that, excluding times of intervention by the Federal Reserve, interest rates on U.S. government debt are higher when levels of effective openness to foreign capital flows are lower, increasing the government’s borrowing costs.
We project that, although a trade war initially lowers the share of U.S. capital owned by foreigners, the trade war will actually increase the amount of American business capital owned by foreigners, by almost $1 trillion by 2028. Over time, the foreign owned share of business capital rises from about 29 percent today to over 34 percent in 2049.
We project that even if the recently imposed tariffs are removed, GDP will be permanently smaller relative to having had no trade war. Extending the current trade war by several more years will lead to smaller losses in GDP in 2020 but will reduce GDP by more in the long run.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
On June 7, Hill staffers, fiscal experts, and PWBM gathered to discuss the federal revenue loss created by tax avoidance. The U.S. has different tax rates for different income streams, thus there are opportunities for individuals and businesses to reduce their tax bills by recharacterizing income to pay a lower rate.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
In today’s low interest rate environment, the cost of federal debt is lower than it used to be. However, long-run concerns loom. PWBM projections show that policies that reduce federal debt over time produce more economic growth than current policy.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
