PWBM projects the U.S. resident population will grow from 343.5 million in 2026 to 371.5 million in 2056, with net immigration accounting for more than 100 percent of this growth. Real GDP growth slows from 2.2 percent to 1.1 percent as growing mandatory spending is matched with shrinking working-age labor force participation.
Only about 60 percent of today's mandatory spending can be explained by population aging, general economic scale, inflation and healthcare excess cost growth since 2004. The remainder reflects new programs, expanded eligibility, emergency spending, and deliberate reclassification away from traditional discretionary appropriations.
DOL's proposed experience benchmarking alternative would raise mean H-1B compensation by $27,686 (+24.7%) over the random lottery — $7,076 above the NPRM primary rule — while excluding 56 percent of current registrations and shifting selections toward younger workers.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. We estimate an effective tariff rate of 7.1 percent as of March 2026, the first full month after the IEEPA tariffs were replaced by a global 10 percent tariff implemented under Section 122.
A four-month federal gas tax suspension would cost the Highway Trust Fund roughly $11.5 billion in lost revenue, with consumers seeing only partial price relief.
DOL's proposed prevailing wage increase would nearly double the compensation effect of the new wage-weighted H-1B lottery, raising mean selected-registrant pay by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery.
PWBM estimates Operation Epic Fury has cost $27–28 billion in the first 32 days, with projected two-month direct costs of $38–47 billion if fighting continues to the end of April, with another $5 billion in indirect costs.
American retirees receive over twice as much in total federal outlays as working-age adults and six times more than children and young adults. These ratios are even larger on a per-capita basis. Expenditures on retirees are projected to rise even more.
Projected per-gallon price drops and two-month revenue losses if states suspend gasoline and diesel taxes.
We project that Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will deplete in six years (2032). We consider five different reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts. Traditional policy analysis that dominates federal policymaking often provides very different — even opposite — insights compared to more comprehensive modeling.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. We estimate an effective tariff rate of 7.1 percent as of March 2026, the first full month after the IEEPA tariffs were replaced by a global 10 percent tariff implemented under Section 122.
DOL's proposed prevailing wage increase would nearly double the compensation effect of the new wage-weighted H-1B lottery, raising mean selected-registrant pay by $20,611 (+18.4%) over the prior random lottery.
American retirees receive over twice as much in total federal outlays as working-age adults and six times more than children and young adults. These ratios are even larger on a per-capita basis. Expenditures on retirees are projected to rise even more.
We project that Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will deplete in six years (2032). We consider five different reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts. Traditional policy analysis that dominates federal policymaking often provides very different — even opposite — insights compared to more comprehensive modeling.
We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts.
PWBM projects the U.S. resident population will grow from 343.5 million in 2026 to 371.5 million in 2056, with net immigration accounting for more than 100 percent of this growth. Real GDP growth slows from 2.2 percent to 1.1 percent as growing mandatory spending is matched with shrinking working-age labor force participation.
Only about 60 percent of today's mandatory spending can be explained by population aging, general economic scale, inflation and healthcare excess cost growth since 2004. The remainder reflects new programs, expanded eligibility, emergency spending, and deliberate reclassification away from traditional discretionary appropriations.
DOL's proposed experience benchmarking alternative would raise mean H-1B compensation by $27,686 (+24.7%) over the random lottery — $7,076 above the NPRM primary rule — while excluding 56 percent of current registrations and shifting selections toward younger workers.
A four-month federal gas tax suspension would cost the Highway Trust Fund roughly $11.5 billion in lost revenue, with consumers seeing only partial price relief.
PWBM estimates Operation Epic Fury has cost $27–28 billion in the first 32 days, with projected two-month direct costs of $38–47 billion if fighting continues to the end of April, with another $5 billion in indirect costs.
