The Science of Policy Analysis
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We estimate an effective tariff rate (ETR) of 9.8 percent through December 2025. We project that replacing the IEEPA with a new 15% global tariff rate has only a small impact on the ETR, lowering it to 9.1 percent, on a consistent concept basis.
We project that reversing the IEEPA tariffs will generate up to $175 billion in refunds. Unless replaced by another source, future tariff revenue collections will fall by half.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through November 2025.
We project that the new DHS H-1B selection rule, going into effect in March 2026, will shift the H-1B visa allocation toward higher-paid and higher-education foreign-born workers, but by less than alternative designs being debated. Based on data from the current random lottery in the last five years, we estimate that the new DHS rule will have no significant impact on wages of U.S.-born workers, including non-college, college-educated, and STEM workers. Any reduction in competition from fewer STEM H-1Bs is offset by a reduction in productivity growth.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through October 2025.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through September 2025.
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through August 2025.
Over 700,000 Temporary Protected Status (TPS) recipients lose legal status by the end of 2025, including 550,000 who are legally working. We estimate that TPS recipients contribute over $36 billion in annual GDP. Withdrawing their work authorization could add to labor shortages in construction, cleaning, and hospitality, especially in Florida, Texas and New York.
We project that corporate tax revenue will decrease by $276 billion over 10 years on a conventional basis due to changes in international tax provisions related to the Section 250 deduction under OBBBA.
The current Social Security program faces a significant shortfall, equal to 4.2 percent of all future covered payroll over the next 75 years. This shortfall persists under alternative and favorable projections of fertility, interest rates, immigration and the projected impact of AI on future wages.
