Authorizing Medicare and Medicaid to Cover Anti-Obesity Medication
President Biden recently proposed that Medicare and Medicaid cover obesity medications starting in 2026. PWBM estimates a 10-year cost of $140 billion.
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The Long-Run Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. Population
The COVID-19 spike in mortality is the pandemicâs most direct demographic consequence, but not the only one. Factoring in changes in fertility, disruptions to immigration, and indirect demographic spillovers, we estimate that the pandemic reduced the U.S. population 0.5 percent over the long term.
Excess Births during the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in births in 2020 followed by a rebound in 2021. We present new estimates of âexcessâ births during the pandemic, which show that on net over the two-year period, births were roughly in line with pre-pandemic trends.
Update on the Revenue Effects of GILTI and FDII, 2026 Rate Changes, and Proposed Policy Reforms
We analyze new data from the US Treasury to examine historical revenue effects of TCJAâs international corporate tax provisions. We also provide updated conventional estimates to assess the revenue impact of scheduled 2026 rate increases on foreign income of US corporations and assess several proposals that aim to further increase tax revenue.
Taxing Foreign Affiliates of U.S.-Domiciled Firms
We explain how the PWBM uses its dynamic Overlapping Generation (OLG) model to analyze tax policies affecting foreign-earned income by affiliates of U.S.-domiciled firms. We evaluate two illustrative policy changes: we show how firmsâ tax liabilities and the allocation of capital between domestic and international production are affected by an increase in foreign tax rates and a decrease in U.S. tax exemptions on foreign-derived income.
The Impact of COVID-19 on Immigration to the United States
The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to U.S. immigration. Policymakers imposed travel restrictions, stopped visa processing, and made significant changes at the border. The pandemic and policy response led to more employment-based immigration and increased illegal border crossings instead of reducing them.
Computer Sector Investment Tax Incentives: Economic and Budgetary Effects
We examine two major investment tax incentives for the computer sector. The impact on computer-sector investment as well as economy-wide investment is very small, even when the computer sector is modeled as a production complement.
The End of the Double Irish: Implications for US Multinationals and Global Tax Competition
After Ireland ended the Double Irish tax planning strategy in 2020, US firms with historical links to Ireland have shifted their intellectual property (IP) away from traditional tax havens to Ireland and the US to take advantage of tax incentives offered by both countries. This has coincided with a significant increase in Irish corporate tax revenue, particularly for less capital-intensive firms. Repatriation of foreign earnings to the United States has also increased, but fiscal benefits to the US have been offset by tax incentives passed under TCJA.
Mortality in the United States: Historical Estimates and Projections
Improvements in U.S. life expectancy stalled in the 2010s, years before the COVID-19 pandemic produced a spike in mortality. We present new estimates of historical patterns in mortality by socio-demographic group and projections of U.S. mortality through 2060.
Bidenâs SAVE Plan â Distributional Impact Analysis
The impact of income-driven repayment (IDR) educational financing plans by income, race, and gender is not generally well understood. Our analysis estimates that approximately 43 percent of the subsidies from President Bidenâs Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan will accrue to current Black student borrowers and 71 percent to current female borrowers. While lower- to middle-income student borrowers stand to gain the most, we estimate that about a fifth of the benefits will go to households in the top 20 percent of the income distribution, and borrowers with graduate-level education who benefit from the SAVE plan tend to experience the highest savings on average.
