Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated October 14, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of August 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 7.1 percent.
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Seven Social Security Reform Packages: Effects on Growth and Generations
Seven reform packages each avoid Social Security trust fund depletion through 2100. Their 2060 GDP effects range from +0.4 to +12.1 percent and differ in who pays across generations.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated September 9, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of July 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 6.7 percent.
The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Uncapping STEM Green Cards
PWBM projects that exempting STEM immigrants from green card caps would raise U.S. output 4.0 percent and lower federal debt 5.5 percent by 2059, with low-education workers gaining most and incumbent foreign-born STEM workers persistently worse off.
Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated August 10, 2026)
The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data. As of June 2026, the effective tariff rate stood at 7.1 percent.
Effects of the New $100,000 Fee and Wage-Weighted Lottery on the H-1B Visa
We project that the new $100,000 H-1B fee and wage-weighted lottery would raise mean selected pay by $7,551 to $18,799 (6.7 to 16.7 percent) over the prior random lottery at current prevailing wages, with most of the gain from the weighting, not the fee.
Projected Tariff Revenues and Effective Rates Under Current Policy
PWBM projects that tariffs enacted by the Trump administration will raise $2.1 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years, with the long-run average effective tariff rate settling near 9.4 percent after importers substitute away from tariffed goods.
Social Security Outlook, June 2026
PWBM projects that Social Security's combined trust fund depletes in February 2035 with a 75-year shortfall of 4.65 percent of taxable payroll, close to the 2026 Trustees Report despite offsetting differences in fertility and mortality projections.
When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? Spring 2026 - Onward
We estimate that the United States federal debt cannot rationally exceed roughly 210 percent of GDP as an outer limit. Under historical excess cost growth in healthcare, this outer limit is likely reached within 20 years; there is a 25% chance of reaching it in 14 years. Debt markets unravel earlier if beliefs about government repayment shift.
The Demographic, Economic, and Conventional Budget Outlook, 2026-2056 (May 2026)
PWBM projects the U.S. resident population will grow from 343.5 million in 2026 to 371.5 million in 2056, with net immigration accounting for more than 100 percent of this growth. Real GDP growth slows from 2.2 percent to 1.1 percent as growing mandatory spending is matched with shrinking working-age labor force participation.
