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COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Using recently available data on learning loss from pandemic school closures, PWBM estimates that projected 2051 GDP is 1.4 percent lower than it would have been without the learning loss. Extending the 2021-22 school year for all public schools by one month would cost $78 billion and limit the reduction in 2051 GDP to 1.0 percent—a net present value gain in GDP of more than $1 trillion over the next three decades, equal to a $15.14 return for each $1 invested.

Oct 27, 2021

Daniela Viana Costa, Maddison Erbabian, Youran Wu · Oct 27, 2021 · 12 min read

COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update

Brief Tax Policy

Expanding the Child Tax Credit: Budgetary, Distributional, and Incentive Effects

PWBM projects the House Ways and Means Committee proposal to temporarily extend the 2021 Child Tax Credit design would provide an average 2022 refundable tax cut of $2,785 to 78 percent of households with children at a budgetary cost of $545 billion over the 10-year budget window. Changes to phase-out and phase-in thresholds would reduce the budgetary cost but also reduce the size of the tax cuts.

Oct 25, 2021

Victoria Osorio, John Ricco · Oct 25, 2021 · 33 min read

Expanding the Child Tax Credit: Budgetary, Distributional, and Incentive Effects

Brief Debt Growth Inflation Tax Policy

Can Higher Inflation Help Offset the Effects of Larger Government Debt?

Higher inflation reduces the real value of the government’s outstanding debt while increasing the tax burden on capital investment due to lack of inflation indexing. Increasing the current annual inflation target regime from 2 percent to 3 percent inflation reduces debt while lowering GDP.

Oct 21, 2021

PWBM · Oct 21, 2021 · 15 min read

Can Higher Inflation Help Offset the Effects of Larger Government Debt?

Brief Tax Policy

Revenue and Profit Shifting for the U.S. in a Global Minimum Tax Agreement

PWBM estimates that tax policy changes in low-tax countries in response to the recent OECD global minimum tax deal could cost the U.S. as much as 50 percent of its minimum tax revenue.

Oct 13, 2021

Alexander Arnon · Oct 13, 2021 · 16 min read

Revenue and Profit Shifting for the U.S. in a Global Minimum Tax Agreement

Brief Entitlements Social Security Tax Policy

Sens. Manchin and Schumer’s 2021 Senate Budget Reconciliation Agreement: Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects

PWBM projects that the long-run aggregate macroeconomic effects of Senator Joe Manchin's $1.5T reconciliation framework would be negligible. The economic benefits would largely accrue to younger, poorer households while the economic costs would fall mostly on richer households.

Oct 6, 2021

PWBM · Oct 6, 2021 · 8 min read

Sens. Manchin and Schumer’s 2021 Senate Budget Reconciliation Agreement: Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects

Brief Education

College Employment and Student Performance

Working part-time or full-time while enrolled in college is not uncommon, but students who do so tend to fall behind their peers in terms of grades or spending more time in undergraduate study, even after controlling for other characteristics such as household resources.

Oct 4, 2021

Jason Sockin · Oct 4, 2021 · 11 min read

College Employment and Student Performance

Brief Tax Policy

Incentives to Shift U.S. Multinational Profits to Foreign Countries under Tax Changes Proposed by House Ways and Means Committee

We project that recent tax reforms proposed by the House Ways and Means Committee would increase the incentive of U.S. firms to shift intangible investments and profits to foreign countries with a tax rate below 20.7 percent.

Oct 1, 2021

Alexander Arnon, Zheli He · Oct 1, 2021 · 8 min read

Incentives to Shift U.S. Multinational Profits to Foreign Countries under Tax Changes Proposed by House Ways and Means Committee

Brief Tax Policy

Statutory U.S. Corporate Tax Rates vs the OECD under Proposed Changes by House Ways and Means Committee

The House Ways and Means Committee reforms proposed as part of budget reconciliation would increase the U.S. statutory corporate income tax rate to 26.5 percent, bringing the combined federal and state rate to 30.9 percent, making the U.S. rate the third highest among OECD members.

Sep 30, 2021

Alexander Arnon, Zheli He · Sep 30, 2021 · 16 min read

Statutory U.S. Corporate Tax Rates vs the OECD under Proposed Changes by House Ways and Means Committee

Brief Tax Policy

Effective Tax Rates on U.S. Multinationals’ Foreign Income under Proposed Changes by House Ways and Means and the OECD

The House Ways and Means Committee reforms proposed as part of budget reconciliation would more than triple the U.S. tax rate on multinationals’ foreign income and produce a higher rate than a proposed global agreement currently being negotiated through the OECD.

Sep 28, 2021

Alexander Arnon, Zheli He · Sep 28, 2021 · 15 min read

Effective Tax Rates on U.S. Multinationals’ Foreign Income under Proposed Changes by House Ways and Means and the OECD

Brief Education

Household Finances and Post-Secondary Enrollment

Even after accounting for differences in observed student ability, students coming from lower-income households are less likely to attend college. If they attend college, lower-income students are also more likely to attend a two-year community college.

Sep 28, 2021

Jason Sockin · Sep 28, 2021 · 9 min read

Household Finances and Post-Secondary Enrollment