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Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of the Scheduled October 2021 Expansion of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)

The USDA re-evaluation of the Thrifty Food Plan increases the average SNAP benefit by $36.24 per person per month starting in October 2021. PWBM projects that the increase in SNAP spending lowers GDP by 0.2 percent by 2031. People who receive SNAP as well as older working age individuals are helped by policy change while young people with high incomes as well as rich retirees are harmed due to lower future wages and a fall in the return to capital.

Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of the Scheduled October 2021 Expansion of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)

Who Attends Community College?

About 30 percent of students who first attend two-year community college are from families with incomes above the median income for students attending four-year colleges. Moreover, upwards of one-fifth of top students from relatively small and large high schools first attend a two-year institution.

Who Attends Community College?

Updated Bipartisan Senate Infrastructure Deal: Budgetary and Economic Effects

The bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal, endorsed by President Biden, authorizes about $548 billion in additional infrastructure investments, which we estimate is funded by $132 billion in new tax provisions and $351 billion in new deficits. We project that proposal would have no significant effect on GDP by end of the budget window (2031) or in the long run (2050).

Updated Bipartisan Senate Infrastructure Deal: Budgetary and Economic Effects

Profit Shifting and the Global Minimum Tax

We estimate that the recent OECD proposal for a global minimum tax would triple the effective U.S. tax rate on foreign income from 2 percentage points to 5.8 percentage points. The Biden administration’s proposed changes to the U.S. global minimum tax regime would instead raise the effective U.S. tax rate on foreign income to 12.4 percentage points.

Profit Shifting and the Global Minimum Tax

Projections of Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income: A Validation Exercise

Under current law, PWBM projects that U.S. multinationals will report a cumulative $3.6 trillion in Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) between 2022 and 2031. Data released in July 2021 by the Internal Revenue Service for the 2018 tax year provides the first opportunity for a more extensive validation of PWBM’s model of U.S. multinationals’ tax returns. PWBM projects 2018 GILTI within 5.3 percent of the IRS value, suggesting a very good model fit.

Projections of Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income: A Validation Exercise

President Biden’s FY2022 Budget Proposal: Budgetary and Economic Effects

PWBM estimates that President Biden’s FY2022 budget proposal would increase spending by $5.9 trillion and increase revenue by $3.9 trillion over the 2022-2031 budget window. By 2050, we project that the President’s budget proposals would decrease public debt by 7.3 percent and decrease GDP by 1.1 percent relative to current law.

President Biden’s FY2022 Budget Proposal: Budgetary and Economic Effects