PWBM projects that by 2050, the legalization provisions of the U.S. Citizenship Act proposed by President Biden would increase the size of the U.S. population by 4.21 percent, increase GDP by 0.5 percent, but decrease GDP per capita by 0.2 percent. More specific legalization proposals targeted at farm workers, DACA recipients, and essential workers would each increase GDP per capita by 0.1 percent in 2050.
PWBM projects that vaccinating all those eligible by reducing vaccine hesitancy would prevent up to 8.3 million cases in 2021, increase employment by 2.6 million in December 2021, and boost Q4 2020 to Q4 2021 GDP growth by 2 percentage points. In fact, failure to reduce vaccine hesitancy could lead to a âperfect stormâ if people also become optimistic and increase their social contact rates beyond the baseline rates that we previously projected. Indeed, increasing social contact rates to 85 percent of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021 would lead to up to 4.6 million additional COVID-19 cases in 2021.
PWBM projects that the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act of 2021, introduced by Senator Elizabeth Warren, would raise $2.1 trillion over the standard 10-year budget window (2022-2031) under scoring conventions used by government agencies. Incorporating the effects of enhanced IRS enforcement, our projection rises to $2.4 trillion over 2022-2031 and $2.7 trillion over 2023-2032. Also incorporating macroeconomic effects of the Act reduces estimated revenue to $2.0 trillion over 2022-2031 and $2.3 trillion over 2023-2032. We estimate that the Act would reduce GDP by 1.2 percent in 2050.
PWBM estimates that schools in the Philadelphia and surrounding suburb districts with more Black students are less likely to reopen with in-person instruction relative to schools with more White students, even after controlling for differences in income by district. By March 2021, Black students in grades K-5 have incurred a 11.9 percent loss in lifetime income from school closures while White students have lost 10.4 percent. Students educated in the city face larger losses than students educated in the surrounding suburbs.
This post compares effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) under the Family Security Act proposed by Sen. Romney and the Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion proposed by Rep. Neal and President Biden. Married families with children and less than $45,000 in income would face EMTRs 4.4 percentage points higher under the Romney proposal and 6 percentage points higher under the Biden/Neal proposal.
This brief analyzes the epidemiological and economic effects of maintaining, increasing, or decreasing the current pace of daily COVID-19 vaccinations. PWBM projects that doubling the number of vaccine doses administered daily would boost employment by more than 2 million and real GDP by about 1 percent over the summer of 2021, with smaller effects later in the year.
This brief analyzes the impact on health insurance premiums, out-of-pocket spending, and the economy for the healthcare proposal from Daniel Evan McGary as part of the PWBM Democratizing the Budget Contest.
PWBM projects that the broad distribution of relief payments in the Biden administrationâs proposed plan will flow largely into household savings and will produce only small stimulative effects, with 73 percent of the stimulus going directly into household savings. Sectors affected by the pandemic still face restrictions and are unlikely to grow from stimulus payments, while much of the rest of the economy is operating close to productive capacity.
PWBM estimates that three provisions in the Biden COVID relief planâdirect payments, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and expanding the Earned Income Tax Creditâtogether would cost $595 billion in calendar year 2021, with 99 percent of households in the bottom 80 percent of incomes receiving a benefit.
