Page 17

Health and Economic Effects of Reducing COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy

PWBM projects that vaccinating all those eligible by reducing vaccine hesitancy would prevent up to 8.3 million cases in 2021, increase employment by 2.6 million in December 2021, and boost Q4 2020 to Q4 2021 GDP growth by 2 percentage points. In fact, failure to reduce vaccine hesitancy could lead to a “perfect storm” if people also become optimistic and increase their social contact rates beyond the baseline rates that we previously projected. Indeed, increasing social contact rates to 85 percent of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021 would lead to up to 4.6 million additional COVID-19 cases in 2021.

Budgetary and Economic Effects of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Wealth Tax Legislation

PWBM projects that the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act of 2021, introduced by Senator Elizabeth Warren, would raise $2.1 trillion over the standard 10-year budget window (2022-2031) under scoring conventions used by government agencies. Incorporating the effects of enhanced IRS enforcement, our projection rises to $2.4 trillion over 2022-2031 and $2.7 trillion over 2023-2032. Also incorporating macroeconomic effects of the Act reduces estimated revenue to $2.0 trillion over 2022-2031 and $2.3 trillion over 2023-2032. We estimate that the Act would reduce GDP by 1.2 percent in 2050.

COVID-19: Cost of virtual schooling by race and income

PWBM estimates that schools in the Philadelphia and surrounding suburb districts with more Black students are less likely to reopen with in-person instruction relative to schools with more White students, even after controlling for differences in income by district. By March 2021, Black students in grades K-5 have incurred a 11.9 percent loss in lifetime income from school closures while White students have lost 10.4 percent. Students educated in the city face larger losses than students educated in the surrounding suburbs.

Incentive Effects of the Romney and Biden/Neal Child Tax Credit Proposals

This post compares effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) under the Family Security Act proposed by Sen. Romney and the Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion proposed by Rep. Neal and President Biden. Married families with children and less than $45,000 in income would face EMTRs 4.4 percentage points higher under the Romney proposal and 6 percentage points higher under the Biden/Neal proposal.

Epidemiological and Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Vaccine in 2021

This brief analyzes the epidemiological and economic effects of maintaining, increasing, or decreasing the current pace of daily COVID-19 vaccinations. PWBM projects that doubling the number of vaccine doses administered daily would boost employment by more than 2 million and real GDP by about 1 percent over the summer of 2021, with smaller effects later in the year.

PWBM Budget Contest: Privately-Organized Universal Health Insurance in the U.S.

This brief analyzes the impact on health insurance premiums, out-of-pocket spending, and the economy for the healthcare proposal from Daniel Evan McGary as part of the PWBM Democratizing the Budget Contest.

Response to the White House’s Critique of PWBM’s COVID Relief Analysis

Background: Marginal Propensities to Consume in the 2021 Economy

PWBM projects that the broad distribution of relief payments in the Biden administration’s proposed plan will flow largely into household savings and will produce only small stimulative effects, with 73 percent of the stimulus going directly into household savings. Sectors affected by the pandemic still face restrictions and are unlikely to grow from stimulus payments, while much of the rest of the economy is operating close to productive capacity.

Direct Aid in the Biden COVID Relief Plan: Budgetary and Distributional Effects

PWBM estimates that three provisions in the Biden COVID relief plan—direct payments, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit—together would cost $595 billion in calendar year 2021, with 99 percent of households in the bottom 80 percent of incomes receiving a benefit.

Macroeconomic Effects of the $1.9 Trillion Biden COVID Relief Plan

PWBM estimates that the $1.9 trillion in spending in the full Biden relief plan would increase GDP in 2021 by 0.6 percent. Over time, the additional public debt resulting from the Biden plan would decrease GDP by 0.2 percent in 2022 and 0.3 percent in 2040.