We estimate that a large infrastructure bill would increase GDP by no more than $360 billion per year for 2020 and 2021. Short-run GDP expansion from new infrastructure spending is limited by available projects and likely social distancing measures, and so states could not absorb more than $300 billion per year in new federal aid over the next two years.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
In an attempt to prevent and reverse layoffs due to coronavirus, the recently-passed CARES Act established a new lending program targeted at businesses with 500 or fewer employees. These businesses account for 99.7 percent of all firms, 47.3 percent of employment, 40.7 percent of annual payroll, and about one-third of the growth in employment and wages. These businesses also account for 60 percent of employment in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has been disproportionately harmed by the pandemic’s effects.
We estimate the lasting macroeconomic effects of the anticipated recession due to coronavirus, as the initial shock leads to lower federal revenue and higher debt. If the economy recovers the year after a deep recession ("V shape"), we project that federal debt will be 3.2 percent higher and GDP will be 0.3 percent lower by 2030. If the recovery occurs over two additional years (“U shape”), federal debt rises by 5.9 percent and GDP falls by 0.6 percent lower by 2030. Barring future fiscal policy to reduce debt, so-called “potential GDP” will, therefore, be permanently lower due to the coronavirus.
The CARES Act establishes a new, temporary charitable deduction (limited to $300) in tax year 2020 for taxpayers who claim the standard deduction. PWBM projects that this provision would cost about $2 billion and would have little effect on total donations. More than half (53 percent) of the benefit would accrue to families in the 60th to 90th percentiles of the income distribution.
If oil prices remain at current levels through the end of 2020, we estimate that growth in business investment will be 1.9 percentage points lower and growth in GDP will be 0.25 percentage points lower in 2020.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
We present budgetary and distributional estimates for three potential versions of the lump-sum payment that President Trump announced earlier today. All three options increase the after-tax income of low income households the most. However, higher-income households have more children on average and would receive larger cash payments unless additional adjustments are made.
The economic downturn due to coronavirus has disproportionately harmed workers in the leisure and hospitality businesses, such as restaurants and bars—these workers tend to be less-educated and lower-income.
