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Business Taxation in the Biden Tax Plan

We use PWBM’s new dynamic model enhancement of the business sector to analyze several foreign and domestic business taxation provisions from the Biden tax plan. While raising the effective tax rate on foreign profits increases domestic capital, wages, and GDP, provisions that raise domestic business taxes have the opposite effect—when combined, these business tax provisions decrease the capital stock by 0.21 percent and decrease wages by 0.69 percent in 2050.

Business Taxation in the Biden Tax Plan
PDF Brief Brief

Social Security Finances Coronavirus

This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.

The Precarious Position of Pennsylvania Healthcare Providers

We report results from a survey of Pennsylvania physicians, finding that more than half report large decreases in hours worked for staff in their workplaces and 44 percent anticipate their income to decrease by more than half. We estimate PA doctors could lose $6 billion in income during 2020 Q3, with 45 percent of those in private practice anticipating shutting down within the next six months.

The Precarious Position of Pennsylvania Healthcare Providers

Short-Term Economic Effects of a “Phase 4” Infrastructure Response to Coronavirus

We estimate that a large infrastructure bill would increase GDP by no more than $360 billion per year for 2020 and 2021. Short-run GDP expansion from new infrastructure spending is limited by available projects and likely social distancing measures, and so states could not absorb more than $300 billion per year in new federal aid over the next two years.

Short-Term Economic Effects of a “Phase 4” Infrastructure Response to Coronavirus
PDF Brief Brief

Short Run Effects of the Cares Act

This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.

Small Business and Coronavirus Relief

In an attempt to prevent and reverse layoffs due to coronavirus, the recently-passed CARES Act established a new lending program targeted at businesses with 500 or fewer employees. These businesses account for 99.7 percent of all firms, 47.3 percent of employment, 40.7 percent of annual payroll, and about one-third of the growth in employment and wages. These businesses also account for 60 percent of employment in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has been disproportionately harmed by the pandemic’s effects.

Small Business and Coronavirus Relief

Lasting Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Crisis, Absent Fiscal Policy Response

We estimate the lasting macroeconomic effects of the anticipated recession due to coronavirus, as the initial shock leads to lower federal revenue and higher debt. If the economy recovers the year after a deep recession ("V shape"), we project that federal debt will be 3.2 percent higher and GDP will be 0.3 percent lower by 2030. If the recovery occurs over two additional years (“U shape”), federal debt rises by 5.9 percent and GDP falls by 0.6 percent lower by 2030. Barring future fiscal policy to reduce debt, so-called “potential GDP” will, therefore, be permanently lower due to the coronavirus.

Lasting Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Crisis, Absent Fiscal Policy Response