Using PWBMâs dynamic model, we show the macroeconomic effects of Presidential candidate Bidenâs immigration proposal. By 2050, GDP increases by 1.7 percent in 2050 relative to current law while GDP per capita stays the same.
Presidential candidate Joe Biden recently announced a proposal to temporarily expand the Child Tax Credit (CTC). We find that this proposal would cost $110 billion if implemented solely for calendar year 2021 and would cost $1.4 trillion over ten years if extended permanently. While higher income households are more likely to have qualifying children and would see larger average tax cuts ($1160 for the 90-95th percentile), lower income groups would see the largest relative benefit, with after-tax incomes increasing by 9 percent for the bottom quintile.
Using more recent data on international capital flows, we find that the âeffective opennessâ of the U.S. economy has decreased to 31.5 percent openness for private capital flows and 33.3 percent U.S. debt take-up by foreigners. This decline is in line with our prediction from last yearâs posts on the effect of tariffs.
Additional education is associated with similar reductions in mortality rates for men and womenâin 2016, for example, men and women with high school degrees had mortality rates 16 percent and 14 percent lower, respectively, than those without degrees. That same year, however, the mortality advantage of completing a high school degree was 18 percentage points higher for White people than for Black people.
Over the last two decades, a mortality gap has opened up across education levels. For those born after 1950, each additional level of educational attainment is associated with at least an 18 percent lower mortality rate.
We use PWBMâs new dynamic model enhancement of the business sector to analyze several foreign and domestic business taxation provisions from the Biden tax plan. While raising the effective tax rate on foreign profits increases domestic capital, wages, and GDP, provisions that raise domestic business taxes have the opposite effectâwhen combined, these business tax provisions decrease the capital stock by 0.21 percent and decrease wages by 0.69 percent in 2050.
We estimate that the anticipated Trump administration bill to invest $1 trillion in infrastructure would increase GDP up to $720 billion through June 2022.
We estimate that the effect of physical encounters on coronavirus transmission has fallen over time, suggesting that people have adapted their behavior in accordance with social distancing best practices. Whether reopenings cause additional outbreaks will depend on the continuation of these behavior changes.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
