Over the last two decades, a mortality gap has opened up across education levels. For those born after 1950, each additional level of educational attainment is associated with at least an 18 percent lower mortality rate.
We use PWBMâs new dynamic model enhancement of the business sector to analyze several foreign and domestic business taxation provisions from the Biden tax plan. While raising the effective tax rate on foreign profits increases domestic capital, wages, and GDP, provisions that raise domestic business taxes have the opposite effectâwhen combined, these business tax provisions decrease the capital stock by 0.21 percent and decrease wages by 0.69 percent in 2050.
We estimate that the anticipated Trump administration bill to invest $1 trillion in infrastructure would increase GDP up to $720 billion through June 2022.
We estimate that the effect of physical encounters on coronavirus transmission has fallen over time, suggesting that people have adapted their behavior in accordance with social distancing best practices. Whether reopenings cause additional outbreaks will depend on the continuation of these behavior changes.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
PWBM estimates that the CARES Act increases GDP by about 5 percent in 2020 while lowering GDP by 0.2 percent in 2030.
We report results from a survey of Pennsylvania physicians, finding that more than half report large decreases in hours worked for staff in their workplaces and 44 percent anticipate their income to decrease by more than half. We estimate PA doctors could lose $6 billion in income during 2020 Q3, with 45 percent of those in private practice anticipating shutting down within the next six months.
We estimate that a large infrastructure bill would increase GDP by no more than $360 billion per year for 2020 and 2021. Short-run GDP expansion from new infrastructure spending is limited by available projects and likely social distancing measures, and so states could not absorb more than $300 billion per year in new federal aid over the next two years.
This legacy brief is available as a downloadable PDF.
In an attempt to prevent and reverse layoffs due to coronavirus, the recently-passed CARES Act established a new lending program targeted at businesses with 500 or fewer employees. These businesses account for 99.7 percent of all firms, 47.3 percent of employment, 40.7 percent of annual payroll, and about one-third of the growth in employment and wages. These businesses also account for 60 percent of employment in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has been disproportionately harmed by the pandemicâs effects.
